Special Teams Killing Thrashers Season

Prior to looking at the numbers I just assumed that the Thrashers were losing the war at both Even Strength (ES) and on Special Teams (ST) situations. But then I went and looked up the numbers and I was VERY surprised to see this pattern emerge.

Even Strength Situations
47 Thrashers Goals
49 Opposition Goals
-2 net difference

In other words at ES the Thrashers are very close to running even with the opposition. Now I'm sure Coach Anderson would respond to this by saying "we have to do better than just run even" and he would be correct, but being even with the opposition means that the Thrashers are going to OT or the SO on a regular basis and they are earning points. The source of the Thrashers problems is next:

Special Teams Situations
18 Thrasher Goals
30 Opposition Goals
-12 net difference

And there it is ladies and gentlemen--the smoking gun, the giant rip in the side of H.M.S. Titanic. You want to know why we're so low in the standing? Look no further than the special teams units. Now the more clever readers might say "But wait maybe the opposition is getting more Power Plays than Atlanta is!" So far the numbers are 93 Thrashers PP chances to 99 for the opposition (that gap of 6 more PP attempts should only results in about 1 extra goal for the oppositions given the NHL average PP% is around 16%).

The Thrashers Power Play has scored 18 PPG which is about average among NHL teams, but the PP unit has also allowed 3 Short Handed Goals which is among the NHL worst (but not as bad as Boston and Rangers 7 SH Goals Allowed!). So net the Atlanta PP unit has produced just +15 goals.

But it is the PK unit that is the bigger problem. I knew that that the PK had a source of grief all season, but I didn't realize it was quite this bad. The Thrashers have allowed 27 PP Goals Against and scored zero short handed Goals For. If the Thrashers had just an average PK unit they would be up close to the line for the playoffs right now.

What's to be done about it? First you have to identify who is struggling. Let's look at the Expected PPGA for each player given their ice time. At forward Slater and Kozlov (limited minutes) have both struggled compared to their team mates. White has done OK in limited PK minutes. Last year Slater struggled mightily on the PK as well--eventually he and Larsen were dropped for other forwards. It might be time to give Todd White more of a role. I suspect Bryan Little could be a good PKer but the coaching staff is probably trying to avoid piling too much on him at this point in his career. (If only we could clone the Kozlov-White-Little combo--they seem to excel on both sides of the puck.)

Forwards
(Positive numbers indicate goals prevented on the PK above team average)
+1.92 Perrin
+1.21 Armstrong
+.063 Reasoner
+0.31 White
-1.41 Slater
-1.82 Kozlov

On Defense Hainsey has been outstanding on the PK while Havelid has been out there for a ton of goals. It is obvious the coaching staff trusts Havelid-Enstrom duo the most of the big defensive situations but perhaps they need to ease upon Havelid's PK minutes a bit. The most surprising thing about this chart are the HUGE splits between D partners. Hainsey has BIG positive numbers and Exelby is basically even--Hainsey appears to be much better when not paired with Exelby. Same with Enstrom and Havelid who usually skate together--Havelid appears to be much worse when he is not out with Enstrom. Havelid plays more PK minutes than any other D man but he's been out there for 16 of the 27 PKGA so far this season!

Defense
(Positive numbers indicate goals prevented on the PK above team average)
+3.57 Hainsey
+0.44 Oystrick
+0.03 Exelby
-0.69 Schneider
-1.42 Enstrom (on for one 5>3 against)
-3.77 Havelid (on for one 5>3 against)

Blue in Atlanta?

The month of November came to a close with the Atlanta Thrashers losing to the St. Louis Blues 4-2. In some respects the contest mirrored the Thrashers performance; some exciting stretches, but ultimately not enough to win.

The Blues game was generally fun to watch. Kovalchuk has been playing with more intensity since the Columbus match. Exelby has played better the last two games. Pavelec made some fine saves. On the Power Play I was excited to see the Thrashers try putting the Kozlov line out there with Kovalchuk and Hainsey on the points--they were very dangerous and did everything but score a goal. Exelby did another Ron Burgundy Keys to the Game and intermission interview--I appreciate his efforts to entertain the fans. But at the end of the match the Blues skates off winners. Close but no cigar once again for the Thrashers.

I know some fans are in a real panic mode at this point. I'm not one of them. I was angry this summer when the team did not bring in any impact players. I was angry months ago when I realize that we were not likely to see a playoff caliber team take the ice. I was angry when I heard the organization try and sell this as a competitive team. I was angry at the Meet the GM event before the season.

I'm not longer angry. The club is what it is. A collection of interesting young players and some aging veterans. I'm not expecting any playoffs this year. I just want to watch a hungry team that works hard and keeps it close. I want some reason to think that the Thrashers could be a playoff team in 2010.

My prediction for this club was middle to high 80s in terms of standing points and the playoffs usually require mid 90s to qualify. There simply isn't enough talent on this team to make the playoffs. The Thrashers are short a couple of top six forwards and a replacement for Exelby on the blueline.

The bad news is that the Thrashers just missed their big chance to make things interesting in the standings. November was the weakest month of the season. They needed to rack up the points. Instead beatable teams like Columbus, St. Louis, Washington and Nashville were able to come out on top. Now the Thrashers sit just one point out of 30th place at the conclusion of their weakest month on the schedule.

The good news is that the team is getting younger and they are playing the young guys. Some of the younger players have taken BIG steps forward. Bryan Little showed strong defense last year but little offensively flair. This year's Bryan Little is scoring. Last year Nathan Oystrick came to NHL Camp in poor condition and he looked brutal in pre-season action and was sent back to the AHL. This year Oystrick came in pro condition and won the last defense job over Boris Valabik. He bounced back after a costly mistake in his first game has played with increased confidence and lately increased scoring. To be perfectly honest I thought the clock had run out on his NHL potential last year, but he is proving me wrong. Ondrej Pavalec is another guy who looks NHL ready.

Not everything is sunshine and roses on the development front. The returns on the Hossa trade are still very much up in the air. Colby Armstrong has been as advertised with very solid defensive play, hard hitting and some nice goals. On the other hand Erik Christensen is headed closer and closer toward "Bustville" and Angelo Esposito isn't really scoring as much as he should in the Q. Daulton Leveille is still years away from contributing at the NHL level.

I assume the Thrashers will be sellers at the tread deadline time and they must continue to get younger and add to their talent base. They must keep adding players who will core individuals in a playoff team in 2010. 2011 and 2012. Presumably Schneider, Jason Williams, Exelby and perhaps one of the Lehtonen/Pavelec duo could net the Thrashers a good collection of prospects and draft picks which could add to the talent base.

Lastly, I will say I'm very satisfied with Coach Anderson's performance. This team has had a shot to win points in the 3rd period of most of their games. It seems to me that the players play hard for this coach. They've turned in just 4 terrible efforts in 23 games--a vast improvement over last season. I generally like the systems he has used. The forechecking is fun to watch. Personally I favored the coaching candidates who ended up San Jose and Florida. Anderson has surpassed my expectations.

Fixing the Power Play: A Modest Proposal

After years of having little offensive talent on their blueline the Thrashers have stockpiled skilled defensemen lately. Hainsey was added as a free agent, Schneider was acquired via a trade and Nathan Oystrick was promoted from the AHL. While these new players have improved the breakout, the power play remains a problem so far this season.

Right now the Thrashers are throwing out two units: The Kozlov line and Kovalchuk line> Each go out there and the four offensive defensemen taking a turn. Here's the problem in my view--the Kozlov line is much more effective at generating chances--but the Kovalchuk line almost always gets to start the PP and they often consume 1:30 of the 2:00. That leaves the Kozlov-White-Little combo a measly half minute to try and score.

The alternative would be to load up one super PP unit. The team could play the Kozlov-White-Little group as the forwards and ask them to continue their excellent puck possession work down low. Move Kovalchuk to the point with Schneider. In a perfect world the forwards would buzz around down low and if the PK choose to shadow Kovalchuk closely that opens up space in the slot. On the other hand if the Kozlov line draws three defenders low then you get a wide open point shot on net.

Why Schneider opposite Kovlachuk on the point? Because he shoots when the lane is there. The Thrashers defensemen are a bit too deferential to Kovalchuk and often fail to put pucks on the net when they are left wide open. Forcing the puck to Kovalchuk has been a big problem over the years. Just shoot if you're open! That's what good teams do, they don't rely on just one player to put the puck into the net. Put it on and go for loose pucks. If you consistently put it on net it will create mismatches and easy put back goals but you have to shoot early and often to get those easy put back goals.

The downside of the Super PP Unit Strategy is who is on the 2nd unit? Get creative I say. Send out Williams and Perrin and use Enstrom as a winger on the half boards and put Oystrick and Hainsey on the points. At this point it might time to try something different to shake things up.

Exelby and the Defense at the Quarter Mark

Last season Exelby really struggled. Because of his poor play, I advocated trading him during training camp. I argued that he was holding the team back with his "soft" turnovers that result from his dumps to center and from blindly rimming the puck around the boards. Both are Exelby trademarks.

When the season began, Exelby was paired with Ron Hainsey. He let Hainsey make almost all the outlet passes and kept his game very simple--even at the expense of making the big hit. The pair was very strong out of the gate while last year's top pairing of Enstrom and Havelid struggled.

In the first ten games the Thrashers were badly out shot when the Swedish duo were on the ice (they also were more likely to face the opposition's top player). The third pairing of Bogosian and Schnedier had the fewest "tough minutes" and the Thrashers generally out shot the opposition at ES when those two were on the ice.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #1-10
+17 Bogosian
+8 Oystrick
+8 Exelby
+1 Schneider
-4 Hainesy
-45 Havelid
-52 Enstrom

Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #1-10
+4 Hainsey
+0 Exelby
-1 Oystrick
-1 Havelid
-2 Bogosian
-3 Enstrom
-9 Schneider

Since the 10th game of the season things have changed dramatically with respect to the Swedish D pairing and the X-Hainsey pairing. Enstrom and Havelid have bounced back in a big way (despite playing a more tough minutes) and they look more like the version we witnessed last season. Meanwhile Exelby has been in a free fall in terms of getting the puck out of his zone and preventing shots against his goaltender. Hainsey has played decent but being paired with Exelby at ES has brought his Corsi (net shots at even strength) rating down as well.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #11-21
+12 Schneider
+8 Oystrick
+5 Valabik
+3 Enstrom
+8 Havelid
+23 Hainsey
+45 Exelby

Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #11-21
+6 Havelid
+3 Enstrom
+2 Schneider
+1 Valabik
+1 Oystrick
-4 Exelby
-6 Hainsey

In the long run I don't think you can give top 4 ES minutes to a player who makes so many "soft" turnovers as Exebly does and expect to win consistently. When your team works hard to gain possession of the puck and then you have a player who just dumps it out to center ice, it prevents any offense from developing and it allows the opposition to regroup and attack. The Thrashers are being out shot in nearly every game and reason for that becasue they are dumping the puck out instead of making breakout passes. At the start of the year, Exelby passed on Hainsey, but lately the opposition players go right at Hainsey who dishes over to a wide open Exelby who then makes a not-so-great play with the puck.

Until Bogosian comes back I'd like to see the Thrashers move Exelby to where he belongs, the 3rd pairing and play Schnedier and Hainsey together and see what happens with those two. Or even put Oystrick with Hainsey and play Schneider and Exelby as the 3rd pairing.

Thrashers Get Goal Light Tan in Toronto

Most of the time I stick to analysis here at Thrashers Talons, but few things make me happier than winning big versus Toronto and putting one of their players on his backside. After years of watching the Toronto Rodeo run by Darcy Tucker and company it was good to the Thrashers dish out some big hits and walk away with the lion's share of the goals in this contest. Sweet!

There should be some good headlines in the TO papers tomorrow.

UPDATE: here are the links.
"Leafs Thrashers by Thrashers" Toronto Star
"Thrashers Whip Leafs" Toronto Sun

Playing Tough Minutes: Thrasher Forwards

Today, I'll look at the forwards who play the tough minutes. Basically I define "tough minutes" as Even Strength minutes when a player is match up against the oppositions "best player" (the forward who gets the most ice time from his coach).

Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
37.7% Kovlov -8 Corsi Number
36.9% Christensen -3 Corsi Number
34.8% Little -42 Corsi Number
34.1% Armstrong +46 Corsi Number
33.3% White -34 Corsi Number
32.0% Williams -22 Corsi Number
30.5% Kovalchuk -25 Corsi Number
29.4% Reasoner +26 Corsi Number
28.1% Perrin -5 Corsi Number
26.5% Thorburn -4 Corsi Number
26.0% Slater -24 Corsi Number
22.5% Boulton -36 Corsi Number
14.3% Sterling -6 Corsi Number

Now those season total numbers mix together road and home games. As I mentioned yesterday at home the Thrashers coach has the option to match lines and on the road the opposition coach gets a major advantage in line matching.

At Home--Who does John Anderson Play Against the Opposition's Best Forward?
(Percentage of ES minutes versus Opposition Top Player)
Scoring lines in Red, Checking Lines in Blue
38.2% Armstrong
36.4% Kozlov
35.9% Reasoner
33.9% Christensen
33.8% Williams
32.4% Thorburn
31.2% Perrin
31.2% Little
31.1% White
30.7% Slater
29.4% Kovalchuk
24.3% Boulton
DNP Sterling (zero home games)

It looks like the Thrashers coaching staff considers Colby Armstrong their best defensive forward (and I would agree with that) along with Slava Kozlov and Marty Reasoner.

Which players has the Atlanta coaching staff tried to protect at home? Boulton, Kovalchuk and Slater.

On the Road--Who Do Opposition Coaches Target?
(Percentage of ES minutes versus Opposition Top Player)
Scoring lines in Red, Checking Lines in Blue
41.4% Kozlov
40.5% Christensen
37.3% Little
35.5% White
31.6% Kovalchuk
30.0% Williams
29.8% Armstrong
24.7% Perrin
21.7% Reasoner
21.6% Slater
20.7% Thorburn
20.4% Boulton
14.3% Sterling

On the road it seems pretty clear that most opposition coaches choose to play their best forwards against the Thrashers two scoring lines. The 3rd and 4th lines see very few minutes matched up against the other team's star player. Contrast the color distribution in the home versus road lists. On the road the red players (scoring lines) receive the highest percentage of "tough minutes" while at home the pattern is more mixed.

Who Plays the Hard Minutes? Thrashers Defensemen

First I must give credit to the Edmonton bloggers who really began doing this sort of analysis a few years ago. They had a lively debate over at Battle of Alberta blog during Dion Phaneuf's rookie season about whether Phaneuf really deserved all that adulation or weather the Flames coaching staff was shielding him from playing against the opposition's best offensive players. In later years Vic Ferrari created this awesome website that spits out the head-to-head match ups for every game on the NHL schedule (I have a link posted on the right hand side of my blog.)

We are nearing the one quarter mark of the sesaon and I thought it would be really interesting to take a look at which Thrashers forwards and defensemen get handed the toughest defensive responsibilities each night. Who shadows Crosby? Who shadows Ovechkin?

I went through all 19 Thrasher games and looked at who played versus the opponent best forward and how many minutes they played. For some teams the "best forward" is obvious (Ovechkin, Staal, Iginla, etc). In other cases it is less clear cut (Tampa and Detroit). To keep this from being to subjective, the "best oppositon forward" was based on which player had the most ice time per game so far this season. In essence I let the opposition coach identify who THEY considered their most valuable player. It is not a perfect method, but I'm happy with the results. Here is the list of "best opposition players" for the Thrashers first 19 games: (Ovechkin, Horton, M. Koivu, Parise, D. Roy, St. Louis, Zetterberg, Savard, Richards, Gomez, Weight, Staal, Crosby, Nash).

Next I calculated the percentage of ES ice time when each Thrashers played head to head against the opposition team's "best forward" so far this season. Without further ado, let's look at who plays the "tough minutes" among the Atlanta defensemen.

Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
34.3% Enstrom -49 Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted While On the Ice)
33.0% Hainsey -27
32.5% Havelid -37
32.3% Exelby -37
30.9% Bogosian +17
28.4% Schnedier +13
22.9% Oystrick +16
20.7% Valabik +5

Enstrom is getting the highest percentage of "tough minutes" so far this season, but really the quartet of Enstrom-Havelid-Hainsey-Exelby are not that far apart. Which players are being protected by the coaching staff and playing fewer minutes versus the opposition's top forwards? Valabik and Oystrick by a large measure, and Schneider and Bogosian to a lesser degree. Honestly I was a little surprised to see Schneider that low on the list, but most nights this season he has been paired with a NHL rookie and it makes a certain amount of sense to protect both the NHL rookie and he isn't the fastest guy anymore.

Now when thinking about match ups it is important to keep in mind that the home coach gets the last change and therefore can more easily engage in line matching. On the other hand, the road coach must concede a certain amount of control over match ups. So what happens if we look at home and road splits?

Distribution of Home "Tough Minutes"
Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
41.1% Bogosian 4 GP +12 Corsi
38.1% Enstrom 10 GP -30 Corsi
35.7% Havelid 10 GP -19 Corsi
31.0% Hainsey 10 GP -13 Corsi
30.6% Exelby 10 GP -9 Corsi
29.4% Schneider 8 GP +7 Corsi
22.4% Valabik 2 GP -3 Corsi
20.5% Oystrick 6 GP +9 Corsi

When at home the Thrashers have chosen to match the Swedish defensemen (Enstrom and Bogosian) against the opposition's top forward. Enstrom and Havelid have the worst Corsi number in Thrashers home games among defensemen. In the middle, veterans Hainsey, Exelby and Schneider each are getting about the same percentage of top player minutes. At the other end we find two NHL rookies (Oystrick and Valabik) who have been sheltered by the coaching staff when they have the last change. (For both Bogosian and Valabik the sample size is very small so don't get overly excited about those numbers.)

Distribution of Road "Tough Minutes"
Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
35.1% Hainsey 9 GP -14 Corsi
34.3% Exelby 9 GP -28 Corsi
30.3% Enstrom 9 GP -19 Corsi
29.3% Havelid 9 GP -18 Corsi
26.7% Schneider 6 GP +6 Corsi
25.5% Oystrick 5 GP +7 Corsi
23.1% Bogosian 4 GP +5 Corsi
19.9% Valabik 3 GP -3 Corsi

On the road, where the opposition coach can pick his matchups they have chosen to target the Exelby-Hainsey pairing and try to get their top player away from the Swedish duo. While Enstrom has struggled at home in the Corsi department, Exelby is getting owned on the road so far this season when opposition coaches have the last change. Surprisingly they have not been targeting the Oystrick-Bogosian-Valabik rookie trio.

Conclusion
Both the Thrashers coaches and the opposition coaches consider the Enstrom-Havelid pairing to be the Thrashers top defensive pairing. The Hainsey-Exelby pairing is targeted by coaches when the Thrashers go on the road. The rookies and Schneider have no really be targeted when out on the road. Here's one thought, one of these road game put Schneider and Hainsey together on a road game and make it more difficult for the opposition to target Exelby by giving him 3rd pairing minutes.

Calling Out Ilya Kovalchuk

If you want people to treat you like a superstar, you have to play like a superstar.

The true superstars of the game lead their teams in scoring, make good plays on the defensive side of the puck, are locker room leaders and handle a large share of the media load in their hometowns and on the road. As a consequence of doing these things, superstars get paid like superstars. The elite of the NHL start with players like Alexander Ovechkin, Nick Lidstrom, Sidney Crosby--they carry the load for their clubs.

So far this season, Ilya Kovalchuk does not fit the superstar label. He is not putting up the big points, he is not scoring the goals -- heck, he's not even bothering to take the shots that would produce the points.

Ilya Kovalchuk is playing his usual so-so defense (which is an improvement from the execrable defense of his early years). He does VERY little in the way of promoting the Atlanta Thrashers franchise compared to superstars like Ovechkin, Crosby or Lidstrom. I'm tuned in and I rarely hear him talk on the radio, television or in print. When's the last time he spoke on NHL Live? His best interviews appear in the Russia press--which is read by people who seldom buy Thrasher tickets. We only learn what he is really thinking when a blogger like PuckDaddy posts a translation.

Ilya Kovalchuk has the talent to be a superstar. He has the speed, he still has that ungodly release. He will certainly expect to be paid like a superstar when he negotiates his next contract. But if he wants to be treated like a superstar, he should play like one.

It is time for him to show up. The season started 19 games ago. I don't want to hear any baloney about Kovalchuk not having quality linemates. Last season, Kovalchuk was centered much of the year by Todd White (who has never even been considered All-Star Game material), and a 40-year-old right winger who was dropped to waivers by his previous club (Mark Recchi). Despite these pedestrian linemates, Kovalchuk single-handedly carried the Atlanta offense at times even as other lines and other players (Marian Hossa) and the entire defensive corps disappointed fans. When Ilya Kovalchuk feels like driving to the net and shooting, he will score regardless of who is on his line.

So how about it, Kovalchuk? So far this season, the goaltending has kept the Thrashers in every every game on the schedule. This is a team that desperately needs your offensive skills. If you shot the puck like you did last year, this team probably would be sitting on the edge of the playoffs. The 2nd line of Kozlov-White-Little has really carried the scoring load at even strength (see table below). The Kovalchuk line has been a terrific let down so far, barely outscoring the 3rd line and just slightly ahead of the 4th line.

ES Goals by Line
7 = Kovalchuk 4-Williams 2-Christensen 1
18= Kozlov 8-White 8-Little 2
6 = Thorburn 0-Reasoner 4-Armstrong 2
4 = Boulton 0-Slater 2-Perrin 1

The most bothersome aspect of Kovalchuk's play is he unwillingness to shoot the puck when he has possession of it in the offensive zone (see table below). He keeps trying to be Sidney Crosby and set other people up. You're Ilya Kovalchuk, goalies have nightmares about your shot! Stop passing and let it rip!!!

Kovalchuk Shots per Game by Season
05-06 4.14
06-07 4.10
07-08 3.58
08-09 2.68

Will Kovalchuk get on board? Does he want to be included when people list the NHL's truly great players? If so, he needs to bring that shot of his every night. He needs to play with passion and he needs to be the kind of player we've seen him be before. If he doesn't want to be here, he should tell management that. If he only wants to play hard part of the time or if he only plays defense when the coach gets after him or if he ducks out on the media, well then he should only expect to be paid like a one-way scorer in his next contract -- because the elite players bring all that to the table. That's what separates the stars from the superstars. Which will it be Ilya?

Pens Top Thrashers

I missed my first home game of the year last night as the Thrashers took on Pittsburgh. I've been battling a cold for two days and it was much worse on Thursday. So I'll keep this one short.

The team worked hard again, they were out-shot again (22-16 at Even Strength) and they were both a bit unlucky and lucky. They were lucky on the first two goals when a rebound came right to open Kozlov (Darren Eliot referenced the "lucky or good" debate by saying that they were in fact fortunate but credited them with doing the hard work to take advantage of a good bounce). Jim Slater threw a blind shot at the net that caught Sabourin with his five hole open.

They were unlucky when Satan got away with interference on Exelby that led to an odd man break against and a subsequent Penguins Power Play as Thorburn made a diving play to make sure that Pittsburgh did not score. On that power play, the Penguins worked hard but also benefited from a friendly off-the-stick-shaft deflection that won the game.

Before next fall the Thrasher must choose who their number one goalie will be for the future. My guess is that the choice will be Pavelec because he is younger, cheaper and may have more long run potential. Exhibit #1 in the case to prove Ondrej Pavelec is capable of being an NHL starter can been found by watching the Thrashers kill off a Penguins 5 on 3 power play. Pavelec was spectacular.

I hate to see anyone get injured, and I especially hate seeing possible concussions such as the one Todd White appeared to have suffered in the game. If there is a silver lining to White being out for a period of time, it would be a renewed opportunity for Eric Perrin to show Coach John Anderson his offensive skills playing on the Little-Kozlov combo. Assuming White is out for a while, someon will be called up from Chicago. Will it be a skill guy like Sterling or a checker such as LaValle?

I wasn't in the building because of the aforementioned cold, but it looked embarrassingly empty on television. The first five rows were nearly bereft of fans the sections to the right and left of center ice. The tickets distributed number was under 14,000 which usually means the turnstile attendance was several thousand below (The NHL "attendance" number is not the number of bodies that come into the doors but rather the number of tickets distributed). I have to say I'm surprised that Crosby and Malkin didn't pull in more of the casual fans. The sad thing is that so many people bought season tickets last year and watched a wretched hockey club most nights and this year the team works hard and is entertaining but nobody is there.

Hockey News Makes a Mess Out of Stats

In case you haven't heard the Hockey News has been tracking their own version of "clutch scoring" this season. If this were evidence that the paper is embracing advanced hockey stats I would be thrilled. But the truth is all they have done is slap something together that any hockey loving middle school student could create.

A new wrinkle on Campbellnomics this season is the comeback goal. A comeback goal can only be scored when a team is trailing by two or more goals and that goal has a direct effect on his team getting back into the game. The goal must be one of goals scored in succession that result in the game later being tied.

So if the Thrashers are down by two goals and Bryan Little making an amazing play and scores to cut the lead down to just one goal--but the Thrashers fail to tie the game--that goal is not a "clutch goal" because the other 17 skaters failed to tie the game up. Does that make any sense? On other other hand if Boris Valabik throws a puck at the net and it deflects off someone's stick and then redirects off another players butt and into the net--and cuts the opposition lead to one and the Thrashers go on to tie the game--well that counts as a "clutch goal"---greeeeat! That's just sheer idiocy.

A player can't possibly know how a game will turn out--all they can do is play their best given the situation. If they score a goal that helps their team no matter what the score is. To assign special emphasis to goals based on how the game turned out makes little sense.

If you want to make a case that scoring the sixth goal in a 6-1 is less meaningful than I would agree with that. Some goals are more "high leverage" than other goals. You could use a "marginal goals framework" in which you look at the historical average and given credit to players who score in high leverage situations.

For example, in a tie game the next goal will always be meaningful and the closer that tie game is to the end of regulation, the more meaningful that goal will be. A goal that gives a team a 4 goal lead is usually less meaningful, but there is a chance the opposition will score 3 more and the goal that produced a 4 goal lead will suddenly become the gain winner. That goal that gives your team a big lead is unlikely to end up as the game winner, but you never know.

If the Hockey News wants to do "clutch scoring" correctly they ought to assign a value for every goal scored based on the game score and the time at which that goal is scored. Some goals have a HUGE effect on the probability that your team will win the game and other goals not so much. The Hockey News ought to ask one of the quantitative bloggers out there to help them produce a more accurate measure of "high leverage" goal scoring events than mish-mash approach they are taking with their amateurish attempt.

Anderson Hire Looking Good

The Thrashers lost to the Flyers last night. If they had beaten Philly that would have nudged me more towards thinking they might find a way to sneak into the post-season. But they didn't so my expectations remain at "close by no cigar" for this years.

In some ways the Flyers game was something of a miniature of the season. The team played one bad period but otherwise they were fairly competitive. Ultimately they came up one goal short in the end. That pretty much describes the year so far--good effort, fairly competitive, but just not quite enough to put them over the top.

Coach Anderson is certainly getting more out of this lineup that any other coach in Thrasher history. His players pressure the puck and are allowed to be creative. Their style is evolving into an exciting brand of hockey. Sure, they still make mistakes and they've had a couple of rough periods here and there, but they play much more like a team than past Thrashers clubs. They play with much more energy and fluidity than past Thrashers teams. The old Thrashers seemed to labor just to get the puck up the ice and and the offensive zone, while the current club keeps getting better at making quick outlet passes and explosive breakouts that put pressure on the opposition defense.

One thing that seems notable about Coach Anderson's team so far is just how stable the lines have been. Hartley constantly shuffled his centers around. As a new head coach I would not have been surprised to see Anderson try a bunch of combinations early in the season to see who worked best with whom. However, Anderson has favored consistency over experimentation which allows linemates to work on their chemistry. My guess is this goes back to his days as a player--he probably believes consistent lines are more productive than shuffling players around.

Personally, I'd wish he had given Brett Sterling more of a shot and Eric Perrin more ice time. I also probably wouldn't have been as patient with Erik Christensen or Jason Williams. To his credit he got Williams rolling, although Christensen has remained fairly cold--only getting his first goal after 20% of the season had passed. But I will say this about Christensen--if the Thrashers are going to come up short of the playoffs--they need to discover whether Erik is a top six NHL player. They have to play him enough to find out if he is just a slow starter or if he one of those talented teases that never quite deliver on their promise.

The Thrashers still have holes (another top six forward would really help) and they still have problem areas (penalty kill) but Anderson is getting quality play out of this team and I'm enjoying watching them play. It is really unfortunate that the past season turned off so many fans because these is the kind of fun hockey that hockey newbies could get turned on if they were watching it.

Playoffs: What it would take

Could this team make it to the post-season? What would it take to get there?

The fundamental problem for the Thrashers is that they continue to get out-shot nearly every game. Yes, you can win while being out shot--the Thrashers did it last night versus the Hurricanes--but to win while being out shot you must:

1. Finish scoring chances at a higher rate than other clubs.
2. Prevent goals on shots at a higher rate than other clubs.
3. Both of the above.

Right now the Thrashers are being out shot 454 to 533 so far this season. Should we expect this to improve dramatically? If you look at the Shots For and Shots Against for the first 16 games that is a strong pattern.
31-43 = -12
33-39 = -6
26-26 = 0
25-35 = -10
37-30 = +7
33-38 = -5
33-46 = -13
32-33 = -1
24-31 = -7
29-33 = -4
20-32 = -12
31-21 = +10
27-27 = 0
26-32 = -6
22-37 = -15
25-29 = -4

The Thrashers have been out shot if 12 of the 16, they tied in two game and won the shot battle just twice. I have no strong reason to think that will suddenly change. So if we assume the team will continue to be out shot to the tune of 28-33 each night--what would it take for them to stay in the playoff race?

Let's assume the Thrashers are able to keep their current Shot Percentage all season 10.3% (Which ranks 8th in the NHL) what sort of goal tending performance would it take? Roughly a 91.0% Save Percentage would keep them in the playoff race. A 91.0% Save Percentage is basically league average (14th). So there's your answer--average goal tending plus above average shooting (8th) would give them a shot at the post-season.
Right now though the Thrashers have above average shooting (8th) and below average puck stopping (20th).

Other scenarios that would keep this team in contention while being outshot include the following.

• Amazing shooting 12.5% (1st) and poor SV% .893%(20th)
• Great shooting 10.3% (8th) and average SV% .910% (14th)
• Average shooting 9.9% (15th) and amazing SV% .916% (9th)
• A little above average in both, ST% 10.085 (12th) and SV% .915 (11th)

Conclusion: If you're going to be out shot most nights you have to extraordinary at something to get into the post-season.

Bring Down the White Whale

I have three thoughts after watching the Thrashers win yet again and run their streak to five games.

1) This team deserves your attention Atlanta hockey fans. They work hard, they hustle and they support one another out there on the ice. Last year's squad was shockingly unprofessional in the way they would just fold up like a cheap tent in the 2nd game of back-to-back nights. This club has been competitive in 14 of their first 16 games and have looked very good on the 2nd night of back to back games.

2) The second thought is keep your expectations in check. The Thrashers are in the midst of the easiest month on their schedule--they should be winning more games than they are losing. In fact, it is crucial that they keep rolling through this month of November collecting as many standings points as they possibly can--rough waters lay ahead in December and January! Once the team gets past the two Pennsylvania franchises another stretch of beatable teams is on the docket: Columbus, Toronto, Washington, Nashville and St. Louis

3) The Thrashers must finally slay the dragon. The Flyers have haunted this franchise from day one. It is time for them to break whatever spell the Flyers have over this team and end the string of losses. Time to bring down the Moby Dick of this franchise--the Philadelphia Flyers.

Finally, I'll conclude by saying that in my gut I still don't think this team has sufficient talent to qualify for the playoffs. But with a lot of hard work and a measure of good luck they just might be able to squeak in or at least make things interesting in the spring. Making a serious run at the post-season and playing a smart and entertaining version of NHL hockey is precisely the sort of thing that will help this franchise next summer when they are trying to attract free agents (or re-sign some of their own).

Updated Eastern Standings (adjusted for games played)
+7 NYR
+7 BOS
+6 MON
+6 WSH
+6 PIT
+5 BUF
+1 CAR
+1 TOR
--------------- PLAYOFFS
+0 NJD
+0 ATL
-1 PHI
-2 OTT
-2 TBL
-3 FLA
-4 NYI

"That's Hot!"

In my last post, I argued that the Thrashers have been both good and a bit lucky during their recent 4 game win streak.

The team isn't really generating more shots, they are simply cashing in a higher percentage of the shots they have been creating.

So far the Thrashers have played 15 games, so let's do a little comparison of their performance in the three five game segments.


Shots For-Shots Against
1st 5 games: 152-173 = -21
2nd 5 games: 151-181 = -30
3rd 5 games: 126-149 = -23

The team has consistently been outshot in each five game segment and their offensive shots per game actually fell during this most recent set of five games. What has really improved is their Shot Percentage.

Shot Percentage
1st 5 games: 8.6%
2nd 5 games: 7.3%
3rd 5 games: 15.9%

That 15.9% is roughly double of what they were doing before. Is that sustainable over the long haul? Well let's look at the other NHL team's shot percentage so far this season and see where the Thrashers three segments fall in this distribution.

2008-09 Team Shot Percentage
15.9% ATL 3rd 5 game segment of the season.
12.7% PHI
12.1% CHI
12.0% STL
11.4% VAN
11.1% MON
10.9% NSH
10.5% DAL
10.2% PIT
10.0% LAK
10.0% CGY
09.9% CBJ
09.9% BUF
09.9% ANA
09.5% CAR
09.5% COL
09.5% MIN
09.5% DET
09.5% BOS
09.3% EDM
09.3% WSH
09.2% OTT
08.8% SJS
08.7% TOR
08.6% PHX
08.6% NYI
08.6% ATL First 5 game segment of the season
08.1% FLA
08.0% NYR
07.8% NJD
07.3% TBL
07.3% ATL 2nd 5 game segment of the season

Just in case it's not obvious, the team started off ice cold and now they are red hot. Don't count on them finishing the season #1 in shooting percentage. In their last five games they've been converting chances at a higher clip than even the super red hot San Jose Sharks have been doing all season.

The bad news is that they will cool off again, but the good news is that they have been winning lately despite a less than terrific SV%. Consider the following:

NHL Save Percentage Ranking 2008-09
.932 TBL
.931 BOS
.930 MIN
.925 BUF
.922 NYR
.921 PIT
.920 PHX
.919 OTT
.919 ATL 1st 5 game segment of the season.
.917 CHI
.916 MON
.914 VAN
.914 FLA
.911 NJD
.908 CAR
.906 EDM
.905 SJS
.904 ANA
.900 WSH
.894 DET
.893 NYI
.889 LAK
.888 CGY
.887 STL
.886 CBJ
.881 PHI
.879 ATL 3rd 5 game segment of the season
.877 COL
.876 TOR
.873 ATL 2nd 5 game segment of the season
.871 NSH
.858 DAL

In the first 5 games the Thrashers couldn't buy a goal, but red hot goal tending helped them earn points in a number of games. In the 2nd 5 games they struggled with both scoring and preventing goals. In the last 5 they have been hot in converting chances but below average in preventing goals. As their offense cools down they need to either generate more shots or do better at stopping the opposition from scoring.

What Explains the Hot Streak?

The Thrashers have won four in a row now, so I took the time to update the historical rankings (see below) to figure out what had changed. Fundamentally, not all that much other they are getting some good luck.

Earlier they were generating chances but not converting those shots into goals. In just five games the Thrashers have jumped from 27th in Shot Percentage to 8th. The old adage is "better to be lucky than good" which describes this hot streak.

Quite a few goals have been scored lately due to fortunate rebounds. Both Bryan Little goals against Buffalo happened because of good bounces. The same holds true for several of the goals scored in the Carolina game where the puck came right to a wide open Thrashers.

Now do the Thrasher players deserve credit for being in the right place at the right time? Absolutely. Are they likely to keep have pucks bouncing to open guys? Probably not.

If you look at more fundamental measures, the team continues rank low in Shot Differential and Goal Differential. Goal Differential usually predicts a team's place in the standings with about 95% accuracy by the end of the season.

I'll give full credit to Coach Anderson who has the guys playing with passion and good intensity most nights. I certainly have enjoyed watching the wins. But this is the easy month on the Thrashers schedule. They really need to push themselves up into a playoff spot before they exit November and encounter tougher clubs in December and January.

NHL Standings Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 23
2003-2004 21
2005-2006 20
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 29, now 23rd

Player Salary Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 26
2005-2006 02
2006-2007 17
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 29 (unchanged)

Average Attendance Rank
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 23
2006-2007 21
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 28 (unchanged)

Offense (Goals For Average)
2000-2001 27
2001-2002 26
2002-2003 10
2003-2004 13
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 was 24th, now 14th

Defense (Goals Against Average)
2000-2001 29
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 25
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 29th, now 29th

Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 27
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 16
2006-2007 16
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 30th, now 27th

Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 20
2002-2003 26
2003-2004 24
2005-2006 13
2006-2007 19
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 27th, still 27th

Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)
2000-2001 24
2001-2002 27
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 27
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 13
2007-2008 19
2008-2009 was 20th, now 21st

Finishing (Shot Percentage)
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 17
2002-2003 07
2003-2004 05
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 11
2008-2009 was 27th, now 8th

Power Play Percentage
2000-2001 25
2001-2002 29
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 23
2005-2006 04
2006-2007 23
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 was 19th, now 14th

Penalty Kill Percentage
2000-2001 30
2001-2002 25
2002-2003 24
2003-2004 08
2005-2006 27
2006-2007 26
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 26th, now 29th

Earning Power Play Opportunities
2000-2001 07
2001-2002 24
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 02
2005-2006 01
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 28
2008-2009 was 9th, now 20th

Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 21
2002-2003 17
2003-2004 28
2005-2006 28
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 15
2008-2009 was 19 now 17th

Thrashers Players After 15 Games

Who is playing well at Even Strength?
Are the Thrashers out-shooting or being outshot when this player is on the ice? (Corsi Numbers)
Team
-27 Atlanta Thrashers
Defense
+17 Bogosian
+17 Oystrick
+13 Schneider
+6 Valabik
-15 Hainsey
-19 Exelby
-36 Havelid
-42 Enstrom
Comments: The Enstrom-Havelid duo were badly outshot in the first 10 games but they have rebounded in the last 5 games. Exelby-Hainsey were great their 1st 5 games but have been on the minus side the last 10 games.

Forwards
+51 Armstrong
+30 Reasoner
+5 Christensen
-1 Perrin
-2 Thorburn
-2 Kozlov
-6 Sterling
-10 Williams
-19 Kovlachuk
-22 Slater
-27 Boulton
-35 White
-38 Little
Comments: The Little-White-Kozlov line has been scoring but they are giving up a lot of chances against so far this season. The 3rd line has done exactly what you want them to do--play in the other team's end and put pucks on the opposition net. Armstrong is simply amazing--whenever he is on the ice the Thrashers outplay the opposition.

Who is playing well on the Power Play? (minimum 5 minutes total)
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PP Goals For for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PP has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+1.76 Jason Williams
+1.43 Nathan Oystrick
+1.36 Todd White
+1.16 Slava Kozlov
+0.77 Colby Armstrong
+0.71 Nic Havelid
-0.18 Ilya Kovalchuk
-0.33 Tobias Enstrom
-0.57 Erik Christensen
-1.57 Bryan Little
-2.00 Ron Hainsey
-2.39 Mathieu Schneider

Who is playing well on the Penalty Kill?
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PK Goals Against for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PK has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+3.12 Eric Perrin
+2.50 Ron Hainsey
+1.03* Marty Reasoner
+0.55 Garnet Exelby
+0.26 Nathan Oystrick
+0.23 Todd White
-0.00 Colby Armstrong
-0.12 Erik Christensen
-0.88 Boris Valabik
-1.13 Jim Slater
-1.24 Mathieu Schneider
-1.38* Tobias Enstrom
-2.01* Nic Havelid
-2.19 Slava Kozlov
* on for a 5>3 PK goal against.

Even Strength: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential 324-358 = -34
Power Play: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
99-125 = -26
Short Handed: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
6- 20 = -14
Total: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
429-503 = -74

Lehtonen Trade Rumors

Far be it from me to endorse either Al Strachan or Bruce Garroich, but this is the most logical Thrasher trade rumor to come down the pike in a while. In fact, I wrote something myself about the possibility of Lehtonen being moved last summer.

Consider the following:

1. Atlanta has two goalies who could be #1.
2. Atlanta has a backup (#2) that has a two year contract (if they intended to carry both Lehtonen and Pavelec no need to re-sign Hedberg last summer).
3. Atlanta has a top prospect who refused to report to the AHL, but then did report after talking to the GM.
4. Atlanta still need more talent on their roster. Having two #1 goalies is a luxury they can't afford.

Ergo, it is virtually certain one of these two goalies will no longer be a Thrasher in October of 2009. At some point, either Lehtonen or Pavelec will be moved. The only question is WHEN and for WHOM.

Let's consider the WHEN question more carefully.

Make a trade right now--At the moment the Thrashers are on a three game win streak-- thus they don't NEED to make a deal. It is often said that dealing from a position of strength is better than dealing from a position of desperation. There are some other clubs like Edmonton and New Jersey that are in a position of need. Perhaps one of them will make a terrific offer--if not the Thrashers can afford to wait. In the case of New Jersey I find it hard to believe they would make a terrific offer because Brodeur will come back and he will expect to play almost every single game. You're not going to make a huge trade just for a temporary starting goalie.

Teams like Edmonton and Ottawa and even Detroit have a long term need in goal and are more logical trading partners. But Ottawa and Detroit are not in a desperate position right now. The biggest advantage of making a deal now is that a club like Edmonton or Ottawa might think that acquiring Lehtonen could be the difference between missing and making the playoffs and therefore they pay a higher price than they would during the summer time.

Make a deal at that trade deadline--The biggest problem of waiting until the trade deadline is that you only get maximum value if one of the playoff teams are really hurting for a starter. Only 16 qualify for the playoffs--most of these teams will have a #1 guy and not want to make a change late in the season. Also the Thrashers would be looking for a young player (19-25) who could contribute immediately at the NHL level. Most NHL teams are NOT going to want to give up a roster player right before they head into the post-season. Contending teams are more likely to offer draft picks and very young prospects in exchange. The only way a playoff bound team makes a deal with Atlanta is if their #1 is done for the rest of the year and they have an abundance of prospects.

Make a Deal in the Summer of 2009--This still strikes me as the likely time for a goalie trade. A team like Detroit will shopping Jiri Hudler and Brett Lebda during the summer and they will be looking for Chris Osgood's successor. Also a new GM in another city might be looking to make a big splash by acquiring a goalie-of-the-future type move for his club. The biggest downside to waiting until summer is that you loose some leverage in trade talks because another team can say "your price is too high, we'll just go sign veteran goalie so and so to fill our net for the upcoming season."

As for the WHOM part, I expect it is Lehtonen that would be moved. Why? Lehtonen is playing for a big contract, he has a history of not being consistently healthy and he is older. Both he and Pavelec look like #1 guys but Pavelec will be cheaper in the near term until he demonstrates his ability at the NHL level.

The Thrashers must contend on a budget which means loading up on talented players who are still relatively inexpensive (under 25). They need to win to draw fans which will then produce the revenue to re-sign some of the key players (the Buffalo model).

Buffalo Falls Again to Resilient Thrashers Club

Three wins in a row and three solid performances in back-to-back games. I don't what John Anderson is doing differently than Bob Hartley and Don Waddell but he is getting a much stronger effort in these back to back games nights.

The Little-White-Kozzie line is red hot. They were a bit lucky on both Bryan Little goals but earlier this season they were working hard and not getting rewarded. Last night they were rewarded with a few fortunate bounces after creating offensive pressure. You can see their confidence is sky high right now.

Last Three Games: Bryan Little 3 Goals, 3 Assists = 6 points
Last seven Games: Slava Kozlov 6 Goals, 5 Assists = 11 points

Will opposition teams put their best checkers against the Kozlov line?
Will that open up the door for the Kovalchuk line perhaps?

Two rally wins in a row. Ideally you'd never like to fall behind in a game. Hedberg had a rough 2nd period and then made some quality stops in the 3rd. He's a great person but not necessarily the best backup goalie in the NHL--that has been noticeable his last two games.

Special Teams: Both clubs PP units went 2 for 3 which pushes the Thrashers PP% rankings up to 12th in the NHL but the Atlanta PK has now fallen to dead last (30th).

I'm not going to post the team Corsi numbers today, the main story was that the Exelby-Hainsey pairing had a rough time in terms of being outshot badly at ES. Hainsey bailed out Exelby a few times and played a huge 28 minutes. I listened to part of this game on the radio while driving to play my own hockey game, but Valabik seems to have played better.

Real East Standing
+7 NYR
+7 MON
+6 BUF
+4 CAR
+4 MON
+4 NJD
+2 WSH
+0 OTT
+0 TOR
+0 TBL
-1 PHI
-2 ATL
-3 FLA
-4 NYI

Thrashers Rebound with Two Wins.

The Thrashers have put together their first consecutive wins of the season. That streak will immediately be tested by a tough Buffalo team on Friday night.

What does this mean? On the one hand the Thrashers have righted the ship after two ugly losses in three games. The effort and intensity returned and they again looked like a competitive and entertaining team. On the other hand the Thrashers have only done what they must do. They beat two of the weaker teams in the Eastern Conference.

The truth of the matter is that November is the easiest month on the schedule and if the Thrashers are going to make this an interesting season the absolutely must exist November with a winning record. If you divide the NHL into upper, middle and lower thirds (as I do) the Thrashers face these bottom rung clubs this month: FLA, NYI, CBJ, TOR, STL and these middle of the pack clubs: CAR, CAR, PHI, NSH and these upper tier teams: NJD, BUF, PIT, WSH.

Atlanta probably needs to take 4 out of 5 against the bottom clubs to make this a successful month. The next five games are HUGE. Compared to other months November is not as difficult but the next five games versus BUF, CAR, CAR, PHI and PIT will be a crucial test. The Thrashers need to find a way to get 6 points out of a possible 10 which would then put them in a good position to pick up even more points against the weaker teams in the later part of the month.

Here are the current Eastern Standings adjusted for games played.
(Points above or below games played)
+7 NYR
+7 MON
+6 BUF
+4 BOS
+3 CAR
+3 PIT
+3 NJD
+2 WAS
-----------PLAYOFFS
+1 OTT
+0 TOR
+0 TBL
-1 PHI
-2 FLA
-3 ATL
-4 NYI

Bruce Levenson: "It's way too early. I think we're three games out of first place,"
Actually we would need to win six more in a row to get into first place in the division.

Who is doing what? The last two home game I got out my handy yellow note pad and tried to track every single time the Thrashers possessed the puck. I noted who made bad passes, who failed to catch good passes, who cleared the defensive zone, who failed to clear the defensive zone, who attempted shots and so forth. I tried this a few times last season.

It requires a lot of concentration to track every pass made during a game--but it also helps you get away from personal biases. Like anyone, I have players that I like and those I don't like so much. But when I track passes I just write down what happens regardless of my feeling for the players.

So what did this exercise teach me?
Exelby is making many fewer turnovers than last season. When I tracked puck possession last year I was just stunned by how often Exelby would dump the puck into the neutral zone or fail to make an outlet pass. The good news is that he has largely stopped dumping the puck out to center--because now he passes almost exclusively to Hainsey who then makes a good outlet pass. I'd say in the Florida game 85% of Exelby's passes went to his D partner.

In the Florida game the Williams-Christensen combo were just brutal in the first period. When those two were out on the ice, the puck stayed in the Atlanta zone most of the time and when they did clear their defensive zone they quickly lost possession of the puck. Their puck possession improved in the 2nd and 3rd periods.

Jason Williams in particular was pretty much a black hole in the Florida game, he either couldn't catch a pass, couldn't make a pass, lost control of the puck or was checked off the puck. It was a pretty amazing display of badness out there. Fortunately he was significantly better in the Islanders game, but he still losses possession of the puck far too often for a guy who is supposed to have top six forward talent.

Kovalchuk is also a big source of turnovers. He tries some high risk passes and he also just makes some dumb decisions out there at times--he tries drop passes when everyone on the ice is looking for him to shoot the puck.

The Kozlov-White-Little consistently makes good passes and good decisions out there. They pass efficiently and they stay in their lanes opening up the offense. When they do dump the puck into the offensive zone they are able to jump into the corners and win the puck back much of the time. The question in my mind as I was tracking puck possession was this: Why is the Kovalchuk line getting 80% of the PP time when the Kozlov-While-Little line is playing some great hockey right now? They ought to split those power plays 50-50 and send out the 2nd line halfway through.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that Colby Armstrong may be the most underrated player on the Atlanta Thrashers. When he is on the ice good things happen--regardless of who he plays with. Last time I ran the numbers he was the most effective PK forward. At ES his season total Corsi number blows away any other forward on the team.

Schneider Out and Valabik In
So Schneider get dinged up in practice and Valabik was called for tonight's game. I'm not sure when Valabik arrived but he looked brutal. In played just 9 of the 60 minutes of the game and was on for 2 goals against. He was just standing there by the net doing his best Andy-Sutton-as-a-pillar-of-salt impression on the first two Islander goals and then he took a unnecessary penalty that gave the Islanders another opportunity to add to their total. The Thrashers got back into the game in the 3rd and Boris played just 2 minutes in the final 20.

I'm hoping he was just nervous or arrived at the last minute and will look better the next game (Schneider is expected to miss three according to the team). As I recall he looked pretty rough in his first NHL game last year and then seemed to settle down and relax after that. I do worry about how he will look matched up against Buffalo's speedy forwards--if he just stands around it could be quite ugly.

Your Corsi Numbers for the Florida Game
(Net shots fired while at even strength while that particular players was out on the ice--were you out chancing the opposition or being out chanced?)

Team
+9 Pavelec - The Thrashers were really out played the Islanders at even strength last night.

Defense
Havelid +4
Enstrom +9

Hainsey +8
Exelby -3

Oystrick -2
Valabik +1

Forwards
Kozlov -1
White -1
Little 0

Kovalchuk +4
Christensen +1
Williams +2

Armstrong +8
Reasoner +6
Thorburn +6

Perrin +1
Slater +2
Boulton 0

Election Day!

I never talk politics here on the blog. My day job revolves around US Politics and this blog is about hockey and I usually keep the two things separate. But today is election day and so I will make an exception.

My profession opinion as a political observer is that Democrats are poised for major wins on all fronts. Just as the 1980 and 1994 elections were very good for Republicans, this election will be good for many Democratic candidates.

Specifically I expect Obama to win the popular vote by almost 10 points 54%-46% and the Electoral College 378-157. I expect the Democrats to gain +8 US Senate seats and +29 US House Seats.

Why such big gains?
1) Many polls are failing to survey cell phone only households who are leaning strongly toward Obama this cycle. Pollsters who do contact cell phone only households put Obama's lead at 10 points.

2) Obama has demonstrated a capacity to turn out his vote during the Democratic Caucuses and McCain spent all his GOTV money on TV ads. Every indicator of enthusiasm points to Democrats being energized and Republicans being depressed--which reminds me very much of 1994.

3) In states that allow early voting and also track party registration among early voters, Democrats have had a very large advantage among early voters. Now it is possible that all the Republicans are waiting for election day to cast their ballots--but I think that is a poor bet to make. I think some Republicans will stay home and turnout among young voters and African-Americans will be up sharply.

Being Honest About the Future

Last spring I was angry. The Thrashers traded Hossa. I wasn't angry about that. I was angry because the team didn't trade Holik and other veterans. I wa angry because we heard a lot of "happy talk" about how the Thrashers were leading the division late in the year.

All of this "happy talk" was just self deception. The Thrashers were only in the playoff "hunt" because the entire Southeast Division was laughably weak. The one moment where the Thrashers were "leading the division" was created when Carolina began their late season collapse and Washington had yet to rise from the ashes of their brutal start. In that brief window the Thrashers looked better.

But the truth is that last year's squad needed a fundamental rebuild. The Thrashers were one of the oldest veteran-laden teams in the entire NHL. The veterans didn't play hard enough or well enough most nights--and veterans are expensive. The Thrashers were old and costly and they needed a full on rebuild. To contend on a budget you need a lot of young talent.

What was required was an honest assessment of just how bad the team was. The Thrashers were "lucky" last years in the shootout--which made them look better than they really were. The Thrashers were "lucky" to play in a very weak division--which also made them better than they really were. If you use Goal Differential as a measure of team quality (and I do)--Atlanta was 30th--the worst team in the entire NHL last year.

The mistakes of club management were compounded by the feuding ownership. When you're at rock bottom major changes are required. But ownership was either unwilling to pay for a new GM or unwilling to be honest about just how bad the team was last season (just as they couldn't accept firing Bob Hartley in the summer of 2007 after he lost the team in the playoffs).

Instead they kept the same GM in place and we got a half hearted rebuild. The organization never had the firesale they should have had. Even during the summer I advocated moving Lehtonen for young players. Pavelec looked like he was ready to begin his NHL career and the Thrashers are still one of the older teams in the league. They should have traded Lehtonen for pieces of the future.

Now the frachise and the team are at a cross roads. After two brutal losses in their last three games the season is on the line. The team played pretty well out of the gate but couldn't score--they deserved better. They might be able to pull themselves out of the funk but it has to start immediately. November is the easiest month on their schedule. If they don't exit this month with a winning record look out--because the schedule only gets tougher.

The bigger problem is Kovalchuk looks disinterested this year. Last year the team played with very little passion, but Kovalchuk was an exception and he single handly carried the offense at times. This year Lehonen is playing well and Kovalchuk looks like a passenger. If the team goes down in flames this year it seems likely to me that Kovalchuk will want out.

At that point ownership will be face-to-face with the giant mess. Will the ownership do what is necessary and hire a new GM who can then trade Kovalchuk, Schneider and Lehtonen for the young players we need to become a playoff contender in 2010 and beyond? Sometimes hitting rock bottom can be good--but you have to be honest and realize that's where you are and make major changes. Last year we hit bottom and failed to take the drastic steps necessary to rebuild and it looks like that only delayed the pain of parting with anohter marquee star player.

Thrashers Team Rankings in Historical Perspective

The Thrashers have now played about 10% of their season schedule. I was looking at where this year's club ranks in various categories compared to past Thrasher teams. There are a 72 more games to be played and some of these numbers for this season could move quite dramatically. So far the team has had one blowout win (7-4 over WAS) and one blowout loss (0-7 PHI) and a bunch of close contests (but mostly losses).

To make these rankings more intuitive, any team ranking that is in the bottom 1/3 I made the text appear blue and any ranking in the middle 1/3 black and any ranking in the top 1/3 red.

NHL Standings Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 23
2003-2004 21
2005-2006 20
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 29
Summary: Only one season has the team not finished in the bottom third.


Player Salary Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 26
2005-2006 02
2006-2007 17
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 29
After the lockout the owners spent big time, then fell to middle of the back and then to the basement again in the 3rd season after the lockout.

Average Attendance Rank
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 23
2006-2007 21
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 28
Attendance has never been great other than the initial 1999-2000 season. On the other hand the Thrashers attendance ranking has been higher than their standings ranking multiple times in team history--people have bought tickets even for a terrible hockey product.

Offense (Goals For Average)
2000-2001 27
2001-2002 26
2002-2003 10
2003-2004 13
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 24
Offense is one rare area where the Thrashers have managed to be above average in their franchise history. The one year the team spent big they were very good offensively, because almost all the money went into forwards--of course they also couldn't defend very well.

Defense (Goals Against Average)
2000-2001 29
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 25
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 29
This is by far the most damning indictment of Don Waddell's tenure. That a former defensemen can't seem to assemble a mediocre defensive corps is really amazing. The best defensive season in franchise history the team only managed to rise as high as middle of the pack, every other season the club has finished in the bottom third.

Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 27
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 16
2006-2007 16
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 30
To be an contending club you can't continually stink it up on offense or defense, you have to be able to both reasonably well. The Thrashers had two outstanding offensive teams and neither made the playoffs. The one team that did was decent on offense (15th) and decent on defense (15th).

Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 20
2002-2003 26
2003-2004 24
2005-2006 13
2006-2007 19
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 27
The current Thrashers team is ranked 11th in shots for but just 29th in shots against.

Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)
2000-2001 24
2001-2002 27
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 27
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 13
2007-2008 19
2008-2009 20
Pre-lockout the Thrashers finished in the basement each season, post-lockout this is one of the few areas where the team has ranked in the middle third. Lehtonen's SV% ranking has increased each year relative to other starting goalies.

Finishing (Shot Percentage)
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 17
2002-2003 07
2003-2004 05
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 11
2008-2009 27
In their history the Thrashers have had three offensive superstars: Kovalchuk , Heatley and Hossa. You can see this in the team shot percentage. Great players finish off their chances at a much higher rate than your average NHL player. This season the Thrashers ranked 11th in shots taken but rank just 27th in terms of scoring on their shots--that's what losing a Marian Hossa means (and having Kovalchuk off to a slow start). Still there is reason to believe the offense will improve if Kovalchuk heats up and the rest of the forwards get a little more luck around the net.

Power Play Percentage
2000-2001 25
2001-2002 29
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 23
2005-2006 04
2006-2007 23
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 19
Despite having some super stars who could finish, the Thrashers have had just one outstanding PP season in team history. The current PP unit has actually improved over last year's so far.

Penalty Kill Percentage
2000-2001 30
2001-2002 25
2002-2003 24
2003-2004 08
2005-2006 27
2006-2007 26
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 26
Consistently poor. I have no explanation for that 2003-04 anomaly.

Earning Power Play Opportunities
2000-2001 07
2001-2002 24
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 02
2005-2006 01
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 28
2008-2009 09
The outstanding area in team history is earning penalties. The Thrashers have been on the PP more often than most teams and they accomplished this in spite of the fact that Kovalchuk doesn't get the benefit of thedoubt as a consequence of his early diving issues.

Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 21
2002-2003 17
2003-2004 28
2005-2006 28
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 15
2008-2009 19
Bad teams usually take a lot of penalties. The players are not as good and they cheat and get called for it. Given their talent level the Thrashers have been a relatively disciplined team over the years. The one year the team qualified for the playoffs they did very well at staying out of the box. An observation: since Marc Savard and Modry have departed the Thrashers have not finished in the basement in penalties taken.

Conclusion
The Thrashers have been bad at a lot of things in their history. I realize that is hardly a news flash to long term fans. What about this year? The most encouraging thing I can say is that they are generating pressure offensively, They rank 11th in shots and their up tempo system is earning the club a lot of PP opportunities (9th). So far they just haven't capitalized (27th in shooting %) and the offense ranks just 24th--I expect the offense to rise as the season progresses.

On the defensive side things are still concerning. The shots allowed are still too high. Part of that is the new offensive system in which the defensemen are supposed to take more chances holding the puck in at the offensive blueline. The Thrashers forwards must become better at covering for those pinching defensemen in those situations where they fail to hold it in the offensive zone.