Election Day!

I never talk politics here on the blog. My day job revolves around US Politics and this blog is about hockey and I usually keep the two things separate. But today is election day and so I will make an exception.

My profession opinion as a political observer is that Democrats are poised for major wins on all fronts. Just as the 1980 and 1994 elections were very good for Republicans, this election will be good for many Democratic candidates.

Specifically I expect Obama to win the popular vote by almost 10 points 54%-46% and the Electoral College 378-157. I expect the Democrats to gain +8 US Senate seats and +29 US House Seats.

Why such big gains?
1) Many polls are failing to survey cell phone only households who are leaning strongly toward Obama this cycle. Pollsters who do contact cell phone only households put Obama's lead at 10 points.

2) Obama has demonstrated a capacity to turn out his vote during the Democratic Caucuses and McCain spent all his GOTV money on TV ads. Every indicator of enthusiasm points to Democrats being energized and Republicans being depressed--which reminds me very much of 1994.

3) In states that allow early voting and also track party registration among early voters, Democrats have had a very large advantage among early voters. Now it is possible that all the Republicans are waiting for election day to cast their ballots--but I think that is a poor bet to make. I think some Republicans will stay home and turnout among young voters and African-Americans will be up sharply.