Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Sunday, November 09, 2008

What Explains the Hot Streak?

The Thrashers have won four in a row now, so I took the time to update the historical rankings (see below) to figure out what had changed. Fundamentally, not all that much other they are getting some good luck.

Earlier they were generating chances but not converting those shots into goals. In just five games the Thrashers have jumped from 27th in Shot Percentage to 8th. The old adage is "better to be lucky than good" which describes this hot streak.

Quite a few goals have been scored lately due to fortunate rebounds. Both Bryan Little goals against Buffalo happened because of good bounces. The same holds true for several of the goals scored in the Carolina game where the puck came right to a wide open Thrashers.

Now do the Thrasher players deserve credit for being in the right place at the right time? Absolutely. Are they likely to keep have pucks bouncing to open guys? Probably not.

If you look at more fundamental measures, the team continues rank low in Shot Differential and Goal Differential. Goal Differential usually predicts a team's place in the standings with about 95% accuracy by the end of the season.

I'll give full credit to Coach Anderson who has the guys playing with passion and good intensity most nights.
I certainly have enjoyed watching the wins. But this is the easy month on the Thrashers schedule. They really need to push themselves up into a playoff spot before they exit November and encounter tougher clubs in December and January.

NHL Standings Rank

2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 23
2003-2004 21
2005-2006 20
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 29, now 23rd

Player Salary Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 26
2005-2006 02
2006-2007 17
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 29 (unchanged)

Average Attendance Rank
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 23
2006-2007 21
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 28 (unchanged)

Offense (Goals For Average)
2000-2001 27
2001-2002 26
2002-2003 10
2003-2004 13
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 was 24th, now 14th

Defense (Goals Against Average)
2000-2001 29
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 25
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 29th, now 29th

Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 27
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 16
2006-2007 16
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 30th, now 27th

Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)

2000-2001 26
2001-2002 20
2002-2003 26
2003-2004 24
2005-2006 13
2006-2007 19
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 27th, still 27th

Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)

2000-2001 24
2001-2002 27
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 27
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 13
2007-2008 19
2008-2009 was 20th, now 21st

Finishing (Shot Percentage)

2000-2001 23
2001-2002 17
2002-2003 07
2003-2004 05
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 11
2008-2009 was 27th, now 8th

Power Play Percentage

2000-2001 25
2001-2002 29
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 23
2005-2006 04
2006-2007 23
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 was 19th, now 14th

Penalty Kill Percentage
2000-2001 30
2001-2002 25
2002-2003 24
2003-2004 08
2005-2006 27
2006-2007 26
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 26th, now 29th

Earning Power Play Opportunities
2000-2001 07
2001-2002 24
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 02
2005-2006 01
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 28
2008-2009 was 9th, now 20th

Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 21
2002-2003 17
2003-2004 28
2005-2006 28
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 15
2008-2009 was 19 now 17th

2 Comments:

  • As far as lucky bounces in the Carolina game I am going to have to completely disagree with you. I actually saw this game live. The boys were crowding Cam Ward when they had the puck in front of the net and there was always someone positioned in front as well. Carolina was a very well played game and they were rewarded with a win for it.

    By Blogger Lisa aka HockeyWench, at 1:39 PM  

  • Is it so much that we are getting lucky or are the boys finally crashing the net and cashing in on garbage goals? I'd like to think the latter (I obviously have little to back that up).

    By Blogger Taste of Flames, at 11:30 PM  

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