Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Thrashers Players After 15 Games

Who is playing well at Even Strength?
Are the Thrashers out-shooting or being outshot when this player is on the ice? (Corsi Numbers)
Team
-27 Atlanta Thrashers
Defense
+17 Bogosian
+17 Oystrick
+13 Schneider
+6 Valabik
-15 Hainsey
-19 Exelby
-36 Havelid
-42 Enstrom
Comments: The Enstrom-Havelid duo were badly outshot in the first 10 games but they have rebounded in the last 5 games. Exelby-Hainsey were great their 1st 5 games but have been on the minus side the last 10 games.

Forwards
+51 Armstrong
+30 Reasoner
+5 Christensen
-1 Perrin
-2 Thorburn
-2 Kozlov
-6 Sterling
-10 Williams
-19 Kovlachuk
-22 Slater
-27 Boulton
-35 White
-38 Little
Comments: The Little-White-Kozlov line has been scoring but they are giving up a lot of chances against so far this season. The 3rd line has done exactly what you want them to do--play in the other team's end and put pucks on the opposition net. Armstrong is simply amazing--whenever he is on the ice the Thrashers outplay the opposition.

Who is playing well on the Power Play? (minimum 5 minutes total)
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PP Goals For for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PP has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+1.76 Jason Williams
+1.43 Nathan Oystrick
+1.36 Todd White
+1.16 Slava Kozlov
+0.77 Colby Armstrong
+0.71 Nic Havelid
-0.18 Ilya Kovalchuk
-0.33 Tobias Enstrom
-0.57 Erik Christensen
-1.57 Bryan Little
-2.00 Ron Hainsey
-2.39 Mathieu Schneider

Who is playing well on the Penalty Kill?
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PK Goals Against for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PK has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+3.12 Eric Perrin
+2.50 Ron Hainsey
+1.03* Marty Reasoner
+0.55 Garnet Exelby
+0.26 Nathan Oystrick
+0.23 Todd White
-0.00 Colby Armstrong
-0.12 Erik Christensen
-0.88 Boris Valabik
-1.13 Jim Slater
-1.24 Mathieu Schneider
-1.38* Tobias Enstrom
-2.01* Nic Havelid
-2.19 Slava Kozlov
* on for a 5>3 PK goal against.

Even Strength: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential 324-358 = -34
Power Play: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
99-125 = -26
Short Handed: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
6- 20 = -14
Total: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
429-503 = -74


4 Comments:

  • Falconer, to what do you attribute the huge disparity between the line-mates? Christensen is far ahead of Williams and Kovy. Army and Reasoner are well ahead of Thorburn. Kozzie is well ahead of Little and White.

    Is that just a function of the line-juggling that has gone on? Thorburn started out with Slater and Boulton, so perhaps his numbers have greatly improved with Reasoner and Army, just not enough to completely pull him up yet. Little and White were with Kovy for a stretch, and their numbers are closer together.

    I also look at how the Corsi numbers compare to other stats. Little is a +7 - a far cry from his Corsi number. Enstrom is even. Army is even. Schneider is a -11. I think the Corsi numbers are very interesting, I'm just trying to figure out how to put them in perspective relative to all the other stats that float around. As in, how much weight or importance should we give to the Corsi numbers?

    By Anonymous Sara, at 9:04 AM  

  • Sara:

    I'm sort on time right now, but different lines, sometimes people change early, also 4 on 4 counts as part of the ES play numbers. All of those factors can cause differences between line mates.

    By Blogger The Falconer, at 9:05 AM  

  • Falconer,

    I really enjoy reading your blog - and looking at this one got me thinking how much I'd like to see a comparison of Hainsey vs. Campbell - considering Campbell was basically double the price, I'd be curious to hear your opinion on the value of the Hainsey signing, which at the timed was panned by the MSM, calling it inflated, overpayment.

    THANKS!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:42 PM  

  • I'll try to take a look at Campbell if a get time this week. It is still early in the season yet for both players.

    One thing that does jump out at me is that Hainsey received a strong rating from Alan Ryder's Point Allocation system last season which makes me think that system might prove superior to identifying free agents.

    By Blogger The Falconer, at 3:49 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home


 
Who links to my website?
View My Stats