Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Exelby and the Defense at the Quarter Mark

Last season Exelby really struggled. Because of his poor play, I advocated trading him during training camp. I argued that he was holding the team back with his "soft" turnovers that result from his dumps to center and from blindly rimming the puck around the boards. Both are Exelby trademarks.

When the season began, Exelby was paired with Ron Hainsey. He let Hainsey make almost all the outlet passes and kept his game very simple--even at the expense of making the big hit. The pair was very strong out of the gate while last year's top pairing of Enstrom and Havelid struggled.

In the first ten games the Thrashers were badly out shot when the Swedish duo were on the ice (they also were more likely to face the opposition's top player). The third pairing of Bogosian and Schnedier had the fewest "tough minutes" and the Thrashers generally out shot the opposition at ES when those two were on the ice.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #1-10
+17 Bogosian
+8 Oystrick
+8 Exelby
+1 Schneider
-4 Hainesy
-45 Havelid
-52 Enstrom


Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #1-10
+4 Hainsey
+0 Exelby
-1 Oystrick
-1 Havelid
-2 Bogosian
-3 Enstrom
-9 Schneider

Since the 10th game of the season things have changed dramatically with respect to the Swedish D pairing and the X-Hainsey pairing. Enstrom and Havelid have bounced back in a big way (despite playing a more tough minutes) and they look more like the version we witnessed last season. Meanwhile Exelby has been in a free fall in terms of getting the puck out of his zone and preventing shots against his goaltender. Hainsey has played decent but being paired with Exelby at ES has brought his Corsi (net shots at even strength) rating down as well.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #11-21
+12 Schneider
+8 Oystrick
+5 Valabik
+3 Enstrom
+8 Havelid
+23 Hainsey
+45 Exelby


Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #11-21
+6 Havelid

+3 Enstrom
+2 Schneider
+1 Valabik
+1 Oystrick
-4 Exelby
-6 Hainsey

In the long run I don't think you can give top 4 ES minutes to a player who makes so many "soft" turnovers as Exebly does and expect to win consistently. When your team works hard to gain possession of the puck and then you have a player who just dumps it out to center ice, it prevents any offense from developing and it allows the opposition to regroup and attack. The Thrashers are being out shot in nearly every game and reason for that becasue they are dumping the puck out instead of making breakout passes. At the start of the year, Exelby passed on Hainsey, but lately the opposition players go right at Hainsey who dishes over to a wide open Exelby who then makes a not-so-great play with the puck.

Until Bogosian comes back I'd like to see the Thrashers move Exelby to where he belongs, the 3rd pairing and play Schnedier and Hainsey together and see what happens with those two. Or even put Oystrick with Hainsey and play Schneider and Exelby as the 3rd pairing.

2 Comments:

  • I'd love to see Oystrick promoted to the top 4. His play has really surprised me this season and he has come a long way from his shaky first couple of games.

    I don't think moving Schneider up is a good idea for two reason. 1: Moving Oystrick up lets him play with a quality defensemen instead of making the rookie play with Exelby. Second, Schneider hasn't exactly been a shining ray of awesome. His corsi# is good, but he plays the easy minutes. Sticking him against players with more skill/creativity is a bad plan. I've liked Schnieder for a long time and was pumped when we traded for him, but his skating is nowhere near where it used to be and he would be nearly as easy to exploit as Exelby (he'd still make better outlets, but that's about it).

    By Blogger Taste of Flames, at 12:21 PM  

  • I say that they bench Exelby until he learns to pass better, play Oystrick or someone else in his place until he learns that his play is costing us games.

    Remember, John Anderson said that the best player will earn their ice time. Well, the Washington game was evidence to me that if we are giving away possession from too many bad passes or because people are not back to defend when they should be, then they need to sit. Like you said, Falconer, the easy part of the schedule is over now, and we are facing Nashville, who we've lost to during regular season last year, and St. Louis whose defense is much better than ours, and whom we have struggled against too.

    Ovechkin looked really good Wednesday, but I think that when puck possession and bad passing is costing us games, it is time for Anderson to shake up the defense and get the most of the pairings.

    Same with the goalies. I think Anderson needs to think about which goalie is most effective vs. certain teams. For instance, Lehtonen has been terrible vs. Philly and Nittymaki. Not sure if Moose has been any better, but if and when we play Philly, maybe Anderson should play Pavelec. And he should be that deliberate with each game until either Lehtonen or Pavelec or Hedberg emerges as the strong goalie vs. any team.

    Look at Chicago, they get Huet, but Khabibulin has emerged as the stronger of the two goalies.

    By Anonymous Steve, at 6:42 AM  

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