Thrashers Ticket Revenue Up 10% Last Season

Here's a link to the Toronto Star which apparently has gotten their hands on the updated official NHL revenue numbers.

As you may recall, the Thrashers must grow their revenues at an above average rate to keep their full share of revenue sharing money. Pre-season quotes from club officials in the fall of 2007 in the Atlanta Business Chronicle showed that they were very bullish they would hit their revenue targets.

Last fall the Thrashers were coming off their first ever post-season appearance and ticket sales were up. Of course the regular season didn't turn out so well as the club missed the playoffs and ended up trading one of their two marquee players for a collection of role players, prospects and picks.

On a per game basis the Thrashers brought in $488 thousand in the first year after the lockout (2005-06). This number increased to the second year post-lock out $500 (2006-07). Following their 1st every playoff push the numbers took a big jump to $550 per game (2007-08).

Given the hugely disappointing 2007-08 season and general dissatisfaction among the season ticket holder fan base the Thrashers will need to win early and win often in 2008-09 to even come close to matching those numbers from last year--even with ticket price increases.

This franchise brings in a relatively small amount of revenue compared to other NHL teams. That trend will likely continue as long as the put an inferior hockey product on the ice. This is not the sort of city where you can finish in the basement year after year and expect people to elbow each other out of the way to snap up tickets (aka Toronto).

In terms of the overall NHL standings the Thrashers were tied with Washington and the Islanders for spots 26-27-28 at gate revenues of half a million per game. Chicago took a major jump up (they were dead last the season before) with their exciting rookies and the death of their hated owner causing some old fans to come back to that franchise.

The Coyotes finished dead last, losing nearly one sixth of their ticket revenue from the season prior. The truth of the matter is that Phoenix choose to play their kids and they had a pretty good year in terms of hanging around the playoffs. I would guess Phoenix will see a small bump this year but that is a market very much like Atlanta where the locals have had precious little to cheer for over the last decade.

Custance To Cover NHL at Sporting News

In case you missed the news, Craig Custance will be leaving the AJC. After covering the Thrashers for a year. He will be taking over the NHL beat at the Sporting News.

I gather that they are going through some sort of re-design and may emerge as a bi-monthy or monthly format. To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to their hockey coverage since Larry Wigge left them some years ago. Hopefully Craig can inject some new energy into their material.

From a Thrashers fan perspective, I will miss having him on the beat. I thought he performed well in the job getting the facts and keeping us informed on what is going on with the club. In particular, I liked the way he followed up on questions fans left on his blog. Many times the questions were not stuff that merited a full article but they were things that readers wanted more information on.

On the positive side it is good to have someone on the national press scene who knows about sunbelt markets and the Thrashers in particular. The NHL press is dominated by Canadian writers and the vast majority of American reporters come out of northern markets as well. About the only national reporter who gives the Thrashers the time of day is Kevin Allen at USA Today.

Finals Talk

I gave my finals prediction over on the NY Times before the start of the series. I went with Wings in six but right now it sure looks like Wings in four. The truth is that Pittsburgh outplayed Detroit in the first period of game 1 as Nick Lidstrom made two uncharacteristic turnovers. Game 3 is rolling around on Wednesday and the Penguins really need to score the first goal to get their confidence back.

If you look at the TOI breakdown Crosby is out against the Wings top D paring of Lidstrom and Rafalski 75% of the time and the 2nd pairing the rest. The third paring is never out there against the Penguin's top player--with the last change going to Pittsburgh that should change some in Game 3. But the burden is really on Malkin who is seeing mostly the 2nd Detroit D pairing (Kronwall and B. Stuart) and the 3rd pairing to produce.

Penguins Success Means Hossa Pick Falls

Because the Pittsburgh Penguins have made the Stanley Cup Finals, the 2008 1st rounder the Thrashers obtained from Pittsburgh will fall to either 29th or 30th. Under the current rules the Stanley Cup champion picks last in the 1st round and the Stanley Cup runner up picks 2nd to last.

If the Penguins had been eliminated prior to the finals, the Hossa pick would ranked 26th or 27th (Pittsburgh finished tied with Anaheim), so the Thrashers will move down about three spots toward closer to the bottom of the 1st round.

Thrasher Drafting Again

In case you missed it Craig Custance put up a blog post doing his own study of Thrasher draft picks. He went about it a slightly different way that I might have, but he ended up with results quite similar to my own studies. The Thrashers are not terrible at drafting, in fact they compare reasonably well to the other four expansion siblings.

The broader point is that you can study draft picks in several different ways, but any reasonable approach produces the same finding. In the social sciences we call that a "robust" outcome--the results are consistent even when you use a variety of measuring sticks.

Kudos to Craig for taking the time to sort through the data. I criticized his earlier article on the Wolves development by saying that the reader had no way of judging whether the Wolves were above- or below-average because there was no context that allowed the reader to compare AHL clubs. His draft study does provide that context which makes it quite useful.

I've written a fair amount about drafting on this blog and various message boards. I'd like to end by answering the "so what" question--so what does this all mean?

The data shows that the Thrashers are average in terms of drafting and player development. Keep in mind that there are only 30 teams and every single team is striving to beat all the other teams. In this hyper-competitive environment you have to work pretty hard just to finish in the middle of the pack.

One thing people often forget is just how difficult the NHL environment is. Imagine for a moment that you are the 25th best person in your profession in all of North America--that's sounds pretty impressive right? Now imagine that your profession is managing a pro hockey team. What does ranking 25th get you in a 30 team league? It gets you fired. That's now intense the competition is for NHL GMs. Some fans go so far as to say that only the Cup champion has a successful season.

Should we be content that the Thrashers are merely average at drafting and development? If you're merely average on draft day that means that you don't "suck" but it also means you're not a contender. If you're only middle of the pack in player development that means you MUST be outstanding in free agency and trading to create a championship caliber team.

Are the Thrashers reaching their own internal goals with respect to drafting and development? In the early years Don Waddell repeatedly said that this franchise would be built through the draft and by growing their own players. Right now the Thrashers are on track to build a mediocre team that sits right on the boundary between making and missing the playoffs each year. If Thrashers' goal is just to "be competitive for the playoffs" then they are on track. On the other hand if their organization's goal is "to win a championship" they are not on track because player development is not providing them with an advantage over playoff caliber NHL franchises.

The Thrashers players development record is not terrible but it is also not good enough to create an elite hockey team.

Some things I've been reading lately

I don't post very many links on this blog, but things are really slow these days and I'm still busy with work. Here are a couple of things I read recently and enjoyed.

Globe and Mail article that suggests the success of the Red Wings isn't just about good drafting but also because of player development. Those interested in the development topic might find it interesting.

Holly Gunning's Hockey's Future piece on the development of Thrasher prospect Boris Valabik. Some great quotes in that article--looks well edited too.

Tom Benjamin of Canucks Corner argues that the Red Wings style is boring. I don't agree, but it raises some interesting points.

The Captain of the Penguins AHL team arrested for streaking (honestly I'm not making this up). Good to see the Baby Pens are focused on hockey.

Have the Chicago Wolves Developed NHL Talent?

To be honest this past Thrasher season really wore on me and I've enjoyed taking a month off from posting on the blog. But I felt compelled to comment after reading this article by Craig Custance over at the AJC.

There was one sentence in particular that stuck out to me: "At the end of this season, the Thrashers roster consisted of only two players who spent an entire season playing with the Wolves: defenseman Garnet Exelby and goalie Kari Lehtonen."

This is a fact. This is true. But it tells us nothing about the Wolves ability to develop talent. It only tells us about players developed and retained by management.

What if we were to take a look at all NHL players developed by the Wolves and not just those who are the Thrashers current roster? If you run a NHL franchise you want your minor league team to develop NHL talent which you can either use or trade away for something else your team needs.

Let's see what we can learn by a stroll down memory lane. The Thrashers affiliation with the Chicago Wolves began in 2001-02 so I will start with that year. I will list Chicago Wolves prospects (minimum 20 games with Wolves) who went on to play in the NHL. I will ignore minor league veterans.

2001-02 Chicago Wolves who made the NHL
Ranked by number of NHL games played
377 Clark (COL) traded for Cassivi
298 Exelby (ATL)
292 Pothier (WAS) traded for McEachern
302 Hordichuk (NSH) traded for prospects
176 Foster (MIN) traded for Havelid
213 Vigier (ATL-europe)
204 Weaver (VAN)
125 Nurminen (ATL-retired)
81 Simon
71 Tapper
49 Snyder (ATL-deceased)
48 Gamache
45 MacKenzie

Comments: That first year the Chicago Wolves had 8 players on their roster who went on to play over 100 games in the NHL. Brett Clark, Garnett Exelby, Brian Pothier, Kurtis Foster are all defensemen who receive top 4 minutes with their respective teams. Nurmimen became a starter in the NHL before his career was ended prematurely by injury. Vigier, Hordichuk and Snyder were all checking line players. Weaver is a depth defenseman today for Vancouver.

2002-03 Chicago Wolves who made the NHL
298 Exelby (ATL)
264 Karlsson (TBL)
213 Vigier (ATL-europe)
204 Weaver (VAN)
176 Foster (MIN)
174 DiPenta (ANA)
102 Hartigan (DET)
91 Lessard
81 Simon
71 Tapper
49 Snyder (ATL-deceased)
48 Gamache (TOR)
45 MacKenzie (CBJ)

Comments: Joe DiPenta made his Chicago debut and would go on to get a Stanley Cup ring as a 3rd pairing defenseman with the Anaheim Ducks. Lessard joined the Wolves as an aspiring figher and would play a full season with the Thrashers eventually. Karlsson has played two full seasons with Tampa Bay since leaving the Thrashers organization.

2003-04 Chicago Wolves who made the NHL
204 Weaver (VAN)
176 Foster (MIN)
174 DiPenta (ANA)
158 Lehtonen (ATL)
71 Tapper
69 Stewart
63 Santala
45 MacKenzie

Comments: Lehtonen had a two year stint in Chicago and would become the #1 in Atlanta following the lockout. Santala and Stewart also joined the team but became only depth or fringe guys and have not won consistent starting roles in the NHL.

Summary Pre-Lockout Wolves Player Development
Here is the tally of NHL players (100+ games played) that came through Chicago before the lockout. Personally I think Snyder would have broken 100 so I'm including him.

• 6 Defensemen: Clark, Pothier, Foster, Exelby, Weaver, DiPenta
• 4 Forwards: Hordichuk, Karlsson, Vigier, (Snyder?)
• 2 Goalies: Nurminen, Lehtonen

Honestly, that's a pretty decent list, especially at defense and goaltending. Most scoring forwards skip the AHL entirely (heck even Slater skipped the AHL) so I'm not shocked to see few top six forwards on that list. I do find it surprising that so few checking forwards have been come out of the Wolves. Considering that a number of our prospects are inserted into a checking role in the AHL you would think a few more would graduate to the big leagues. On the other hand, checking forwards are extremely cheap (most make the NHL salary minimum) and easy to acquire via waivers and free agency. So any young checking forward has to compete against every other checker who is available on the market.

Wolves Player Development Since 2004
Now let's take a look at prospects on the Wolves since the lockout. At this point in time it is simply too early to tell exactly who will have a NHL career and who will not. But I have made up the lists for the last three season showing prospects who have played in the NHL and I have put an asterisk next to those I can see having a NHL career without too much squinting. Because many of these guys are still "developing" I list any NHL games they have played to this point (unlike above where I restricted the lists to guys who had 40+ NHL games to weed out guys getting cups of coffee).

2004-05 Chicago Wolves (Lockout Year) who made the NHL
213 Vigier (ATL-europe)
158 Lehtonen (ATL)
81 Simon
71 Tapper
69 Stewart
63 Santala
45 MacKenzie

Comments: Vigier and Lehtonen would have been in the NHL were it not for the lockout this particular season. Frankly the Atlanta Thrashers sent mostly checkers to the AHL. Santala was given big minutes if I recall correctly. Stewart had one great season in the AHL and then tried to become a pest type player. I'm not sure who's idea that was but it hasn't resulted in a NHL career so far.

2005-06 Wolves who made the NHL
136 Coburn (PHI)
91 Lessard
69 Stewart
68 Abid
45 MacKenzie
44 Popovic (ATL)
24 Garnett
18 C. Stuart *
8 Doell
(* solid chance of a NHL career)

Comments: Coburn is in Philadelphia and he is their best defenseman right now. Popovic was a regular 3rd pairing guy this year in Atlanta and played better than McCarthy and Exelby most nights he was dressed. It is a crying shame the team didn't experiment with giving him a larger role during a wasted season.

2006-07 Wolves
45 MacKenzie
44 Popovic (ATL)
24 Garnett
18 C. Stuart *
13 Sterling *
8 Doell
7 Valabik *
2 LaValle *
0 Bourett
0 Oystrick
(* solid chance of a NHL career)

Comments: Sterling has put up huge AHL numbers but was outplayed by Little and couldn't stick in the NHL this season. Stuart and LaValle looked solid in NHL call ups. Valabik also has shown significant progress. Bourret was traded for Dupuis who was part of the Hossa deal for Armstrong and Christensen.

2007-08 Wolves who made the NHL
48 Little *
18 C. Stuart *
13 Sterling *
8 Doell
7 Valabik*
7 Pavelec *
2 LaValle *
0 Oystrick
0 Lewis
(* solid chance of a NHL career)

Little is a NHL guy no doubt, the only question is will he score enough for a top six spot. Pavelec also showed great promise in his time in Atlanta. That's two nearly certain NHLers on the Wolves roster this season. I would say that Valabik, Stuart and LaValle have a greater than 50% of making the NHL at some point. So five possible NHLers played for AHL Wolves this season.

Conclusion
A while back I raked Jeff Schultz over the coals for sloppy reasoning when he implied that the Atlanta Thrashers were atypical for developing only a handful of NHL defensemen on their roster. My research into EVERY team showed the Thrashers were in fact completely normal, typical and average in this respect.

The following statement sounds rather damning. "At the end of this season, the Thrashers roster consisted of only two players who spent an entire season playing with the Wolves: defenseman Garnet Exelby and goalie Kari Lehtonen. " But what exactly does that mean? I can't tell and neither can you from reading the article. How many NHL players should your farm club produce?

It seems clear to me that if you look at the entire time period of the Thrashers-Wolves affiliation that the Wolves have produced players who made the NHL. But the majority of those NHL players are on someone else's roster. Is that the Wolves fault? Last time I checked the NHL trades were made at the NHL level, not the AHL.

Unfortunately, the readers of the AJC article are not provided with any information that would allow us to make a thoughtful evaluation. We can't tell whether the Wolves are unusually strong or weak in player development. The article makes repeated comparisons the the Red Wings affiliate in Grand Rapids but we are not provided with any facts about how many NHL players Grand Rapids has developed.

Any time you want to make a comparison you have to ask "compared to what?" and this article never really gave us the crucial data needed to make a valid comparison. If we don't know what is normal for a farm system how can we know if Atlanta's is good or bad?