Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

How Much For That Free Agent in the Window?

I've been working on a simple model to try and forecast free agent salaries, using the summers of 2005 and 2006 as my guide. My first attempt has spit out the results below, but it is still a work in progress. I need to make more adjustments for age. Right now older players like Wesley, Forsberg, Sakic and Sundin are too high. I'll post more extensive estimates after I'm done tweaking the model, but you might use these salary projections as a rough guide as you play armchair GM at home this summer.

All figures are cap hit (i.e. average numbers). A few players who were eligible for free agency have signed contract extensions with their current clubs and for those players I have listed their actual per year salary so you can see how well it compares to the what the model predicted.

Forwards
5.96 J. Sakic (resigned for $6.75)
5.16 T. Selanne
5.11 Datsyuk
4.76 M. Sundinm(resigned $5.5)
4.60 Shanahan
4.49 Forsberg
4.37 D. Briere
4.25 S. Gomez
3.90 R. Lang
3.83 S. Kozlov
3.76 C. Drury
3.66 R. Smyth
3.64 F. Modin (resigned for $3.25)
3.56 K. Tkachuk
3.53 J. Blake
3.45 L. Nagy
3.44 M. Nylander
3.25 M. Recchi
3.22 R. Whitney
2.81 M. Straka (resigned for $3.30)
2.67 P. Kariya
2.59 C. Conroy
2.59 R. Fedotenko
2.45 Smolinski
3.40 Guerin
3.05 S. Doan
2.63 T. Holmstrom
2.37 D. Armstrong (resigned for $1.50)
2.39 S. Hartnell
2.26 P. Sykora
2.25 D. Tucker (resigned for $3.00)
2.25 M. Gelinas
2.25 T. Amonte
2.22 P. Turgeon (retired)
2.21 M. Sturm (resigned for $3.50)
2.21 T. Arnason
2.05 Y. Perreault
2.19 T. Bertuzzi
2.18 J. Stumpel
2.18 R. Dvorak
2.14 M. Comrie
2.12 G. Roberts
2.11 M. Handzus
2.04 M. Peca
1.83 M. Johnson
1.63 E. Lindros
1.59 D. Zubrus
1.56 K. Calder
1.48 P. Stefan
1.45 M. York
1.44 R. Zednik
1.44 V. Vishnevski
1.38 D. McAmmond
1.33 J. O'Neill
1.30 A. Carter
1.27 R. Robitaille
1.20 R. Bonk
1.16 E. Belanger
1.10 Jon Sim
1.08 J. Bulis
1.01 S. Kapanen (resigned for $1.25)
0.99 G. Metropolit
0.93 J. Cowan
0.82 P. Dupuis
0.73 J. Friesen
A. Yashin

Defensemen
5.43 M. Schneider
4.20 B. Rafalski
3.83 T. Preissing
3.79 S. Salo (resigned for $3.50)
3.74 K. Timonen
3.62 A. Markov
3.34 S. Souray
2.84 B. Sopel
2.76 R. Hamrlik
2.69 J. Modry
2.62 P. Brisbois
2.55 T. Numminen
2.54 G. Wesley
2.52 C. Phillips (resigned for $3.50)
2.39 T. Poti
2.39 A. Sutton
2.32 C. Chelios
2.23 D. Markov
2.18 S. Hannan
2.18 M. Skoula
2.15 S. Hill
2.07 C. Sarich
2.07 G. de Vries
2.03 D. Tjarnqvist
1.95 B. Berard
1.91 D. Tanabe
1.74 C. Rivet
1.73 J. Klemm
1.66 D. Sydor
1.32 J. Niinimaa
1.20 E. Brewer (resigned for $4.25)
1.00 J. Melichar
Bryan Allen (resigned for $2.9 5 years)

From a Thrashers perspective Jon Sim, Dupuis and E. Belanger all look very affordable, but Kozlov and Thachuk not so much if they insist on getting fair market value.

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