Conclusion: Thrasher Drafts in Review 1999-2002

I've gone through the 1st four drafts in team history on a year-by-year basis. Now for a quick summary to put all of this together to see how Atlanta's scouts and GM compare to others aroudn the league in that time period.


How Much is that Pick Worth?
For the summary I add up the probability of every single draft pick a team had between 1999-2002 to produce an estimate of how many NHL players they should have found given their number of picks and location.

Draft Pick	1999 Probability	2000 Probability	2001 Probability	2002 Probability
Top 1/3 of the 1st	.78	.70	1.00	.80
Middle 1/3 of the 1st	.67	.60	.70	.50
Bottom 1/3 of the 1st	.30	.80	.40	.50
2nd Round	.21	.26	.27	.18
3rd Round	.37	.13	.18	.09
4th-8th Rounds	.12	.09	.14	.04
9th Round	.03	.00	.03	.00

1999-2002 NHL Draft Rankings
OK here is the mega super ultra sumamry table you're all been waiting for:

NHL Rank	NHL Team	# of Picks	Expected NHL Players	Actual NHL Players	Difference	NHL Players Selected
1	PIT	41	6.7	11	+4.3	Koltsov, Malone, Kostopoulos, Caron, Orpik, Ouellet, C.Armstrong, Surovy, Whitney, M.Talbot, Christensen
2	COL	44	6.4	9	+2.6	Radivojevic, Vrbata, Hahl, Nederost, Sauer, Liles, Svatos, McCormick, Budaj
3	OTT	41	7.5	10	+2.5	Havlat, Kelly, Prusek, Volchenkov, Vermette, Spezza, Laich, Gleason, Schubert, Emery
4	NYR	40	6.9	9	+2.1	Lundmark, Moore, Lundqvist, Zidlicky, Blackburn, Tyutin, Hollweg, G.Murray, Prucha
5	MIN	26	5.0	7	+2.0	Gaborik, Schultz, Sekeras, M.Koivu, Veilleux, Boogaard, P.M.Bouchard
6	LAK	43	7.1	9	+1.9	F. Kaberle, McGratton, Parros, Cammalleri, Bednar, Huet
7	ANA	31	5.8	7	+1.2	Leopold, Havelid, Tenkrat, Bryzgalov, Chistov, Gerber, Lupul
8	BUF	38	6.4	7	+0.6	Zigomanis, Miller, Pominville, D.Roy, Ballard, Wideman
9	NYI	38	7.4	8	+.06	Connolly, Pyatt, Martinek, Mezei, Kolnik, Weinhandl, DiPietro, Torres
10	BOS	37	6.6	7	+.04	Boynton, Eloranta, Kultanen, Hilbert, Alberts, Morrisonn, Jurcina
11	CBJ	35	5.6	6	+.04	Klesla, Nummelin, A.Johnson, Leclaire, Nash, Pirjeta
12	ATL	44	7.8	8	+.02	Stefan, Exelby, Heatley, Hordichuk, Kovalchuk, Nurminen, Lehtonen, Slater
13	PHI	30	4.8	5	+0.2	J.Williams, Cechmanek, Seidenberg, Sharp, Pitkanen
14	STL	36	5.2	5	-0.2	B. Jackman, Khavanov, Taffe, Cajanek, McClement
15	TOR	40	6.4	6	-0.4	Boyes, Tellqvist, Wellwood, Pilar, Steen, Stajan

NHL Rank	NHL Team	# of Picks	Expected NHL Players	Actual NHL Players	Difference	NHL Players Selected
16	CAL	42	7.4	7	-.04	Saprykin, C.Anderson, Stoll, Foster, Moen, Kobasew, Lombardi
17	EDM	45	7.4	7	-.04	Semenov, Comrie, Stoll, Lombardi, Hemsky, Markkanen, M.Greene
18	MON	36	6.5	6	-.05	Hossa, Hainsey, Komisarek, Plekanec, Perezhogin, Higgins
19	SJS	27	4.6	4	-.06	Jillson, Goc Dimitrakos, Ehrhoff
20	TBL	47	6.9	6	-.09	Keefe, Svitov Olvestad, Alexeev, Ranger, R.Craig
21	NAS	44	7.9	7	-.09	Hall, Erat, Hutchinson, Hartnell, Hamhuis, Tootoo, Upshall
22	NJD	42	7.0	6	-1.0	Commodore, Martin, Hale, Rupp, Danton C.Janssen
23	WAS	39	7.1	6	-1.0	Beech, Sutherby, Pettinger, Eminger, Semin, Gordon
24	FLA	39	8.0	7	-1.1	Auld, Hagman, Weiss, Majesky, Krajicek, Bouwmeester, G.Campbell
25	CAR	29	5.1	4	-1.1	Tanabe, N.Wallin, Zigomanis, C.Ward
26	DET	34	4.1	3	-1.1	Zetterberg, Kronwall, Hudler
27	DAL	43	6.4	5	-1.4	M.Tjarnqvist, Ott, Miettinen, J.Jokinen, Bacashihua, Daley
28	CHI	45	7.7	6	-1.7	S.McCarthy, M.Leighton, T.Ruutu, C.Anderson, Babchuk, D.Keith
29	VAN	32	5.9	4	-1.9	D.Sedin, H.Sedin, Umberger, Bieksa
30	PHO	37	7.0	3	-3.9	Kolanos, Sjostrom, Eager

1999-2002 Winners
Pittsburgh acquired a lot of players, some of them quite good some of them are just average. Of course they would go on to draft two stars in Crosby and Malkin in subsequent drafts and now have a very nice collection of young talent on their NHL team. I've heard a lot of NHL GMs talk about building the team through the draft but Pittsburgh has actually done that. Ottawa is another team that is largely home grown and they place third in my study with a great collection of impact and role players. Colorado found a lot of bodies but I don't expect to see any of those fellows in a NHL All-Star game during their careers. Minnesota ranks high but I only see Gaborik as a big impact player out of that group. If my study took quality into account Vancouver and Detroit would both move up significantly I suspect.

1999-2000 Losers
Phoenix was unbelievably bad during this four year period. They only found three NHL players when they should have seven with their picks. None of the players they drafted were impact guys. If I was an owner of this franchise I would clean house. You can't do much worse than you just did.

2002 Atlanta Thrashers
How did the Thrashers fare? Exactly as they were supposed to. They should have found eight players and they did find eight players. They drafted very high and they found three All-Stars or potential All Stars. They also found some role players later in the draft. The biggest problem is the lack of players who can help fill out the top two scoring lines.

Conclusion: The Thrashers were neither great nor terrible in their first four NHL drafts as a franchise. They did about as well as they ought to have done given their position and the quality of those drafts.

Next up: I may do something of college and junior free agents from 1999-2002.