Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Friday, March 23, 2007

2001 NHL Draft

Today we take a look at the 2001 Draft and the Thrashers performance.
(In a previous post on the 1999 Draft I explain my method for evaluating each draft.)

How Much is that Pick Worth?
The first step is to figure out what each draft pick is worth. For comparison's sake I've posted the success rate by round for picks in both 1999, 2000 and 2001. This draft looks more like what we would expect, namely that the higher your pick the greater your chance of success. You can also see that this 2001 Draft was deeper in the 3rd-8th rounds than the previous two years. (Note: my study found virtually no difference between a 4th round pick and a 8th rounder so they are valued the same.)
Draft Pick 1999 Probability 2000 Probability 2001 Probability
Top 1/3 of the 1st .78 .70 1.00
Middle 1/3 of the 1st .67 .60 .70
Bottom 1/3 of the 1st .30 .80 .40
2nd Round .21 .26 .27
3rd Round .37 .13 .18
4th-8th Rounds .12 .09 .14
9th Round .03 .00 .03


How Much Where Atlanta's Picks Worth?
So what sort of picks did Atlanta have available at their table that day? The #1 pick overall thanks to a lucky staff member at the lottery selection. The Thrashers did not have a 2nd round pick this draft (I can't remember why at the moment). The combined probability for the all of the Thrashers picks comes out right at 2.0 players.

Draft Pick Location Pick Probability
1st overall 1.0
3rd round .18
4th round .14
4th round .14
5th round .14
6th round .14
7th round .14
7th round .14
9th round .03


2001 NHL Draft Rankings
In the following chart I list every single NHL team and where they rank based upon their performance in the NHL Draft. I list the number of picks available to them, the value of those picks in terms of Expected NHL players, the Actual NHL players drafted and the Difference between team expectations and team performance. Then, I list the players who count as successful picks using my game played criteria.

I have added a new catagory of Possible NHL Players. There are still individuals from this draft who have are getting close to passing my full season threshold but have not done so this year. The truth of the matter is that it is too early to totally close the book on this draft so I list the guys that still have a shot at qualifying as NHLers (I think it is very like that Novotny, Paetsch and Oduya will be there early next season).

Team Rank Team Name # of Picks Expected NHL Players Actual NHL Players Difference NHL Players Drafted Possible NHL Players
1 NYR 11 2.4 5 +2.6 Zidlicky, Blackburn Tyutin, Hollweg, G. Murrary
2 OTT 13 3.0 5 +2.0 Spezza, Laich, Gleason, Schubert, Emery Bochenski
3 COL 10 1.5 3 +1.5 Svatos, McCormick, Budaj
4 BOS 8 1.6 3 +1.4 Alberts, Morrisonn, Jurcina
5 MIN 7 2.0 3 +1.0 M Koivu, Veilleux, Boogaard Wanvig
6 STL 8 1.1 2 +1.0 Cajanek, McClement
7 MON 8 2.3 3 +0.7 Komisarek, Plekanec, Perezhogin
8 SJS 6 1.4 2 +0.6 Goc, Ehrhoff Clowe
9 VAN 6 1.4 2 +0.6 Umberger, Bieksa J. King
10 PHI 9 1.5 2 +0.5 Seidenberg, Sharp Woywitka
11 LAK 11 2.5 3 +0.5 Cammalleri, Bednar, Huet
12 BUF 8 1.7 2 +0.3 Pominville, D. Roy Novotny, Thorburn
13 PIT 9 1.7 2 +0.3 Armstrong, Surovy N. Welch
14 FLA 12 2.8 3 +0.2 Weiss, Majesky, Krajicek Malec
Team Rank Team Name # of Picks Expected NHL Players Actual NHL Players Difference NHL Players Drafted Possible NHL Players
15 ATL 9 2.0 2 0 Kovalchuk, Nurminen
16 NAS 9 2.0 2 0 Hamhuis, Tootoo Shishkanov
17 EDM 11 2.2 2 -0.2 Hemsky, Markkanen Pisa
18 TOR 12 2.3 2 -0.3 Wellwood, Pilar Colaiacovo, B. Bell, Kondratiev
19 ANA 11 2.4 2 -0.4 Chistov, Gerber
20 DAL 10 1.5 1 -0.5 J. Jokinen, Bacashihua M. Smith
21 CBJ 11 2.7 2 -0.7 A. Johnson, Leclaire
22 CAR 8 1.7 1 -0.7 Zigomanis
23 NYI 8 .8 0 -0.8

24 CHI 13 3.0 2 -1.0 T. Ruutu, C. Anderson
25 DET 7 1.0 0 -1.0
Bykov
26 PHO 9 2.0 1 -1.0 Sjostrom Spiller
27 WAS 10 1.3 0 -1.3
Oduya, Paetsch
28 CAL 11 2.3 1 -1.3 Kobasew
29 TBL 14 2.8 1 -1.8 Svitov Artyukhin
30 NJD 10 2.0 0 -2.0
Salomonsson

2001 Winners
The Rangers are ranked on top as they were able to land a starting goalie (Blackburn) an offensive defenseman (Zidlicky) and some other depth players (Tyutin, Hollweg, Garth Murray). But I think that Ottawa will probably surpass them as soon as Bocheski hits 82 games. The Senators had the #2 overall pick thanks to the Yashin trade and took Spezza a star level offensive player, they also found a starting goalie, and two defensemen in Schubert and Gleason plus Brooks Laich. In third place we find Colorado which managed to unearth Svatos and Budaj late in the draft. Boston found a trio of young players. Honestly, Minnesota is a bit high. If my study took quality into account, Veillieux and Boogaard are not impact players and even M. Koivu hasn't really set the world on fire. Personally, I'd rather have the players that Montreal found than those Minnesota drafted. Also Buffalo, Dallas and Toronto all will move higher when some of their prospects cross the 82 game mark.

2001 Losers
Teams that found zero NHL players include Detroit, Washington, Islanders and New Jersey, but that list is very deceptive. The Wings did find Bykov who clearly can play in the league but wished to return to Russia. The Capitals took Oduya who will pass the 82 games played mark early next year. Tampa is ranked low but Artyukhin will be counted as a NHL player if he returns to the NHL next season. So really I only see the Islanders and Devils coming up empty handed.

2001 Atlanta Thrashers
How did the Thrashers fare in 2000? My approach puts them at 15th which is smack in the middle. They had the top pick and they took the right guy, Koavalchuk is a star player. Nurminen provided some badly needed stability in goal until an injury cut short his NHL career. Bottom line, 2001 was a lot like 1999 and 2000, not terrific, but not terrible either.

Other players taken in 2000 (Garnett, Sipotz, Gajic, Colin Stuart) have reached the AHL level put I don't see them as likely NHL players. Garnett played some last season due to injuries but my guess is that the team will let him depart once his contract ends since Pavelec will be need minor league starts next season.

Next up: The 2002 Draft.

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