Forecasting Baseball: The Computer Guys Win
Now that the 2008 MLB season is winding down the website VegasWatch went back and looked at the pre-season predictions and who fared best. The quantitative guys cleaned up with Nate Silver (PECOTA), Rob Neyer and Law coming in ahead of the Las Vegas Over/Under numbers. Bringing up the rear are former Mets GM Phillips and ESPN journalists Tim Kurkjian and Buster Onley. The article I've linked to looks at the "hard to predict cases" such as Seattle, Chicago (AL), Tampa and which prognosticators did best. Phillips in particuar appears to have bought into the dead wrong hype surrounding Seattle. If you're interested in predictions/modeling it is a fun read.