Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Updated Cap Space and Expected Spending Numbers

I've updated all 30 teams with known signings and trades as of Monday morning. The big movers are Colorado (+Liles +Foote) Tampa (+Malone +Roberts) Edmonton (+Visnovsky's fat contract -Stoll) and LA Kings (-Visnovsky + Stoll). If Tampa signs Rolston and Roberts that will eat a bunch of their remaining cap space.

What I have below are three columns. First the projected budget for each team. The team budget is arrived out by looking at the % of the cap max they spend in the past and projecting that forward (it will not be accurate for all teams but is a reasonable starting point for most). Column Two is current cap commitments for a 20 man roster including buyout penalties (for RFA I have simply used their qualifying offers--in many cases the RFA will receive more than that). The third column is each team's projected spending money (i.e. projected budget number minus estimated current cap hit).

EDIT: UPDATED AS OF 1 P.M. TUESDAY

Budget - Current Minimal Contracts = Budget Space Available TEAM NAME
$54.5 - $56.7 = -$02.9 ANA
$53.8 - $31.5 = $21.7 ATL
$56.5 - $49.1 = $06.7 BOS
$49.9 - $43.6 = $05.7 BUF
$50.5 - $44.8 = $05.1 CAR
$54.4 - $31.2 = $16.1 CBJ
$54.4 - $53.5 = $00.3 CGY
$53.3 - $38.1 = $14.6 CHI
$55.5 - $39.5 = $15.3 COL
$55.3 - $51.7 = $03.0 DAL
$55.3 - $46.4 = $09.0 DET
$53.3 - $53.6 = -$01.0 EDM
$47.4 - $43.3 = $03.6 FLA
$51.9 - $32.1 = $19.1 LAK
$49.0 - $43.1 = $05.3 MIN
$53.3 - $45.5 = $07.1 MON
$44.5 - $42.0 = $02.0 NSH
$54.3 - $45.7 = $07.9 NJD
$50.5 - $34.1 = $15.9 NYI
$54.0 - $38.5 = $14.9 NYR
$53.9 - $45.5 = $07.7 OTT
$55.9 - $55.3 = -$00.1 PHI
$46.9 - $39.5 = $06.8 PHX
$47.2 - $40.1 = $06.5 PIT
$49.5 - $48.2 = $00.7 SJS
$48.7 - $47.1 = $01.0 STL
$52.6 - $49.1 = $02.8 TBL
$55.1 - $41.3 = $13.1 TOR
$55.3 - $39.7 = $13.1 VAN
$41.9 - $47.7= -$06.4 WSH

The big LA Kings-Edmonton trade removes Colorado from the top of the "money to burn" list and drops them a few spots. That leaves Atlanta in the #1 money position according to my rough estimates. The Kings shed themselves of a brutal contract, got younger and freed up cap space with one trade--wow--glad I'm not an Oiler fan.

At this point the Thrashers, Kings, Blue Jackets and Islanders all MUST spend a pile of cash jut to reach the NHL Salary Floor under the CBA. I expect to see some huge money tossed around on Tuesday by those four clubs. We could also see those four pick up some major salary via a trade for a player such as Schneider.

Top Ten Projected Budget $$ Available
$21.7 ATL
$19.1 LAK
$16.1 CBJ
$15.9 NYI
$15.3 COL
$14.9 VAN
$14.9 NYR
$14.6 CHI
$13.1 TOR
$09.0 DET
$07.9 NJD
$07.7 OTT
$07.1 MON

2 Comments:

  • All speculation without any real people signed, here is what the Ottawa Sun is reporting this morning about the Thrashers' attempts to get Brian Campbell:

    The indications are the Rangers, Thrashers, Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Bruins and Blackhawks are all going to make a pitch. And the Sharks can't be ruled out because Campbell feels a certain amount of loyalty toward them.

    A league source said Atlanta GM Don Waddell is so determined to bring Campbell into the fold that the Thrashers might be willing to table a five-year, $42-million US deal (that's $8.4 million a season).

    If you don't believe me, here is the link:

    http://www.ottawasun.com/Sports/Senators/2008/
    06/30/6023546-sun.html

    Again, nothing is for certain until Cambell decides, but the talk is that Waddell is offering big money to Campbell according to an NHL league source.

    Other rumors:

    http://www.ottawasun.com/Sports/Hockey/2008/06/
    30/6023531-sun.html

    Bruce Garrioch reporting that the deal with Roberts and Malone was made yesterday, and is now final. Roberts was signed for 1 year, $2 Mill, and Malone, 7 years, 31.5 mill. They are looking to move Dan Boyle now for sure.

    Sundin may be signing with Montreal for 2 years, 15 mill. Another report says 2 years, 16 mill. He just got Canadian citizenship last year. But if the offer is right, he could go anywhere. There has been talk of interest by other teams such as the Rangers and the Red Wings, but only Montreal has secured rights to talk with him. But, if no one signs him today, then I think that he will be able to talk to anyone. He definitely is looking at all offers. I don't think he will play for anyone who is not in serious playoff contention. Thus, the Rangers, Red Wings, and Montreal make sense.

    Tampa Bay may be going after Meszaros too.

    Ottawa is also interested in Ty Conklin, Alex Auld, and Patrick Lalime. For my money, I would take Conklin; like Malkin, Conklin is also one of the big reasons the Pens did well last year in Fleury's stead until Fleury came back.

    LW Darcy Tucker has been approached by the following teams:

    Columbus, New Jersey, Chicago, the Rangers and Flames have all made calls to Sosa (Tucker's agent).

    Why is Tucker such a big deal? The Toronto Sun reports why:

    http://www.torontosun.com/Sports/Hockey/2008/
    06/29/6017311-sun.html

    McCabe is going to be offered in a trade too. McCabe is one of Toronto's defenseman, and was very disappointing; he had 23 points (5G, 18A) in 54 games this past season. His numbers the previous 2 years were better, but he is -1 in 05-06, +3 in 06-07, and -2 in 07-08. He missed 28 games. Tucker's numbers were not great either, but he offers a lot, and when you play for a team that is disappointing like Toronto, maybe the change of location would be better for both of them.
    Calgary might be looking to get Tucker as they have tried to get him before, but they will only get him if they don't have to pay him more than 1 mill; if he wants more, then the deal with Calgary won't happen because Calgary has very little room under the salary cap after their recent signings of Langkow and Conroy and their trades for Camalleri and the loss of Tanguay.

    Detroit Free Press is reporting that, like I said earlier, that of the two best forwards to go after, Sundin makes more sense because they can get him maybe for 1 year vs. signing Hossa for a long term deal. Hossa turned down $7 mill last weekend from the Pens; the reporter in this article said that Hossa may be looking to go to the Sharks, Rangers, or the Red Wings. With this article in mind, I could see him going to either NY or SJ because they are playoff contenders and they can offer the big money right now. Detroit could, but as this article stated, Zetterburg and Franzen are up for new contracts next year, and they are going to get big raises, I am sure. They may get better contracts this year; who knows?

    This article is in the Detroit Free Press:

    http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
    20080630/SPORTS05/80630013/1053

    San Jose Mercury News:

    Campbell undecided; Marleau is probably going to stay despite rumors of trades. Ryan Clowe said that he is going to stay, but he doesn't know yet for how many years, and for how much. But San Jose has not signed Center Marcel Goc or defenseman Christian Erhoff. Goc was a 1st round pick, but his numbers are disappointing: 8 pts this season (5G, 3 A); last season, 13 points (5G, 8A). Erhoff would be nice; last 3 seasons, +/- = 10, 8, 9. Points= 23 (5G, 18A in 05-06; 10G, 23A in 06-07; 1G, 22A in 07-08) His goal scoring is not great, but assist numbers are better. His +/- rating is consistently good, and that with his assists is what is attractive to me. He would be a good acquisition. He will be 26 in a week, and he would be a good defenseman I am sure anywhere he goes.

    Anyhow, tomorrow starts free agency, so I am sure the blogs and the news are going to be exciting; last year, 24 players were traded the 1st day, and 89 were traded overall last season, so anything can happen to change teams fortunes.

    One last note, it is interesting to see the perception of what teams are looking to be contenders and what teams APPEAR to be out of contention. For instance, the Pens were in the Cup Finals, but may appear to not be a contender because they are going to lose quite a few key players such as Hossa, Roberts, and Malone. We don't know about Orpik or Laraque or others yet. If Ty Conklin goes too, that may also hurt them. Tampa Bay has really made some aggressive moves, and may really be in strong contention next year. As for LA and Calgary, the two other teams who have traded aggressively, they may also improve. Then again, Detroit, who has not traded anyone yet, is still the team to beat. So, anything can happen. We will know a lot more tomorrow.

    By Anonymous Steve, at 8:56 AM  

  • Everytime I read about BC wanting to return to the Eastern Conference, to me that means he wants to return to the north east. Sure Atlanta is closer to the NE than San Jose, but is that going to be close enough for his reason of leaving SJ? (closer to his family)

    I can't see TB moving Dan Boyle. He has a no trade clause, and at the moment TB looks like the team to beat in the South East. With DB playing a crucial role.

    By Blogger Andrew, at 7:34 PM  

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