Thrashers Make Some Modest Moves

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. I have a big work deadline and I've been a bit sick lately. I'll get back on a roll Monday or Tuesday.

The AJC reports that McCarthy was resigned for one year at $725,000 and Brad Larsen agreed to a two year contract for $500,000 per year. Personally I've always like Larsen's work ethic and physical presence and I'm glad to have him back. McCarthy is fine as a 3rd pairing depth defensemen. The price seems a bit high to me considering that he couldn't crack the lineup late in the year.

The Thrashers trade a 3rd rounder #78 overall for checker Chris Thorburn. I know some folks will probably pan this trade but to be perfectly honest the odds are very long that the 78th pick overall would contribute anything to the Thrashers NHL roster. Trading a pick for a guy who can provide a physical presence could end up being a solid plus for the franchise.

Just for fun lets take a look at who was picked with the 78th pick overall the last few years and see what other teams landed with that pick:
1981 Peter Madach 0 NHL games played
1982 Chris Jensen 74 NHL games played
1983 John Kordic 244 NHL games played
1984 Terry Perkins 0 NHL games played
1985 David Espe 0 NHL games played
1986 Brent Bobyck 0 NHL games played
1987 Tyler Larter 1 NHL games played
1988 Rob Krauss 0 NHL games played
1989 Josef Beranek 531 NHL games played
1990 Chris Bight 0 NHL games played
1991 Mario Nobili 0 NHL games played
1992 Robert Svehla 655 NHL games played
1993 Steve Washburn 93 NHL games played
1994 Adam Smith 0 NHL games played
1995 David Gosselin 13 NHL games played
1996 Shawn McNeil 0 NHL games played
1997 Ville Nieminen 385 NHL games played
1998 Peter Nordstrom 2 NHL games played
1999 Matthias Weinhandl 182 NHL games played
2000 Jozef Balej 13 NHL games played

By my count there 3 players who become NHL regulars for 5 years or more (Beranek, Svehla, Nieminen). There are 4 players who had brief careers (Kordic and Weinhandl, Washburn, Jesnsen). There are 13 players who had cups of coffee or less at the NHL level.

Based on our sample size of 20, that means if the Thrashers had kept their pick they had a 65% of drafting a total bust, a 20% chance of drafting a marginal player and a 15% chance of drafting an impact player.

In acquiring Thornburn the Thrashers went from a 65% of getting nothing to a 100% of getting at least a marginal player. They gave up on the small percentage chance (15%) of getting an impact player in exchange for making sure they got someone who could make their NHL roster. This is why I see the trade in a generally positive light. The draft is such a lottery at that point and they choose to trade their lottery ticket for a known quantity.