Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?

This Blog Has Moved!!!

2009-01-12T00:41:00.005-05:00

After two very successful years at Blogger, Thrashers Talons has moved to a new location at Sports Blog Nation (aka SB Nation). As part of the move I am unveiling a new blog name as well. Henceforth it will be know as "Bird Watcher's Anonymous" which will continue the Brown Thrasher/Falconer theme begun here.

The content at the new site will be very similar to what I have created here at blogger, but the new setting will enable me to insert tables and other items with greater ease. In addition, my Thrashers blog will be nestled among other blogs covering every pro sports team. SB Nation is in the process of building their stable of NHL bloggers and I'm honored that they invited me to write about our local team.

Before departing I must thank all of the many readers who have visited this site over the last two years. I started writing this because I was frustrated by the lack of reading material about the Atlanta Thrashers. The old adage is "write the book you'd like to read" and that is what I have tried to do here.

To be honest I wasn't sure what to expect in terms of readership. In 2006 I had just over 6,000 readers (over 5,000 unique). The following year readership exploded upward to 41,000 hits (32,000 unique) and then it doubled once again in 2008 to 81,000 hits (64,000 unique). It was rather amazing to see Thrashers Talons break the 100,000 hit mark recently.

There have been numerous occasions when I have been very depressed about the state of the Atlanta Thrashers and felt little inspiration to post. But I knew that each day readers would be clicking over to this page to read something and that kept me posting on the really rough times. So thanks for coming back and please make head over to SB Nation to check out the new digs! :)

Florida Manges Snowman Against Thrashers

2009-01-10T18:21:00.002-05:00

After playing rather well and getting a shut out versus New Jersey, Kari Lehtonen played his worst game of the year.

Ilya Nikulin All Star Starter

2009-01-07T04:37:00.002-05:00

Per James Mirtle, Nikulin received the most votes for Team Russia in the KHL All-Star game.
I wonder how he would look in a powder blue jersey?

Thrashers Trade Talk/DW about to be fired?

2009-01-06T15:16:00.004-05:00

Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Post-Dispatch beat blog writes:

Howson has spoken with numerous GMs around the league, letting them know what the Blue Jackets have to offer and what they want. Toronto, Ottawa, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and the New York Islanders have been contacted by Howson. It is likely that other teams have heard from him, as well.

The problem is that center is a prime shopping target for Columbus and the Thrashers have their own needs at that position. Aaron Portzline then goes through each of these teams and tries to sniff out what might be up. His comments on Atlanta are most interesting:

Atlanta: This one doesn't make much sense, plus there's lots of talk that Atlanta GM Don Waddell is soon to be fired, that he can't make any moves right now if he wanted to. The Blue Jackets don't want Todd White. The Thrash won't move Brian Little, a 21-year-old with 19 goals.
(emphasis added)

If ownership is thinking about making a change at the top of the organization (and why wouldn't they at this point) that certainly makes the trade deadline more complicated. Would they tell DW he can only move veterans for draft picks? If you don't have full confidence in your GM's ability to evaluate talent (and who would) then you might not want him dealing Thrasher veterans for prospects/players either.

In terms of trading with Columbus the Blue Jackets sit just 2 points out of a playoff spot today (although their playoff odds are just 34%). In seems more likely that Columbus has made phone calls about pending UFA wings and defensemen such as Jason Williams, Nic Havelid and Mathieu Schneider who might be added for the playoff push in that city.

Thrashers Grab Bag

2009-01-06T12:31:00.008-05:00

A collection of odds and ends today.

The Thrashers take on the Penguins tonight--a team that has been in an absolute free fall in the standings lately. Check out the graph for the Atlantic Division here. I'm sure the Penguins view a match against the Thrashers as a easy opponent.

UPDATE: I just got my spam email from the Pittsburgh Penguins promoting this game it reads as follows:

Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins can't seem to score these days. As a result, they've dropped five consecutive games in regulation for the first time since Crosby's rookie season. A date with the league's worst defensive team might be the perfect solution. The Penguins will try to put an end to their losing streak and their offensive drought on Tuesday when they host the last-place Atlanta Thrashers.

The Thrashers played an exciting game versus Vancouver, but the Canucks looked dog tired from travel and their previous game. The fact that it took a SO to get both points is not a sign of strength for the Thrashers. Then they looked like a sure fire lottery team while playing Tampa on Sunday afternoon.

Kovalchuk has been playing better of late, although it has not translated into point yet (I don't know about Kovalchuk, but I'm sick of Erik Christensen making opposition goalies look good--will he ever score a regulation goal when it matters?) Kovalchuk is making more good decisions on the ice and fewer bad ones.

Angelo Esposito was nearly invisible for most of the World Junior Tournament but then woke up and scored two very nice goals in the semi-final and final game. I suppose that's why people say he needs to work on his consistency. His inconsistent work pattern will fit in just fine with the current Thrashers squad.

I liked what I saw in Nicklas Lasu in the Championship game. He was a gritty checker who brings a physical edge to his game. They mentioned in the broadcast that Team Sweden wanted him to be their Tomas Holmstron but the hands may not be good enough for that. Still if he plays like that on a regular basis I could see him holding down a spot on a NHL checking line.

Sorry for the sparse posting of late. I'm close to making a major change with the blog and should have an announcement soon.

Atlanta Hawks Slash Ticket Prices for 2nd Half

2009-01-01T03:25:00.002-05:00

The other side of the Atlanta Spirit are offering discounts of 75% for people who buy the rest of the season. Keep in mind that the Hawks are actually having a pretty decent season.

This is a short run cash grab by the ownership that will discourage people from buying full season tickets next year. It provides a strong dis-incentive to buy up front over the summer.

It makes you wonder if a) the Atlanta Spirit is in terrible fiscal shape and is so desperate for money that they're trying to limp to the finish line or b) the current ownership expects to lose their control of the teams in the near feature and are looking to staunch the bleeding.

Esposito at the WJC

2008-12-31T23:30:00.002-05:00

I've watched two of Team Canada's games at the World Juniors and I'm completely underwhelmed by Angelo Esposito so far. He started off the tournament on a line with uber-prospect John Tavares but did little to impress and was moved to a lower line. He missed on quite a few set up passes from Tavares.

I just finished watching the Canada/USA game and he was rather ineffectual again. The only time he seemed to have the puck is when he attempted Kovalchuk-esque 1 versus 3 offensive rushes while his linemates changed behind the play. He had one great play where he came down the side boards turned the corner on the defenseman and drove across the front of the crease but failed to score. That's pretty much the only thing exciting out of him in two games.

Gare Joyce wrote a book about scouting prospects during Esposito's draft year called "Future Greats and Heartbreaks: A Year Undercover in the Secret World of NHL Scouts." Esposito entered the year as the leading candidate to be the #1 overall pick after racking up huge point totals while playing along side Alexander Radulov in the Q. Joyce interviewed and watched Esposito multiple times over that draft year. His take is that Esposito seemed to just wilt under the pressure.

Esposito's stock fell during that season and on draft day he ended up falling to #20 where the Pittsburgh Penguins took him. The Thrashers didn't have a 1st rounder because of the Tkachuk trade, but if they probably would have drafted him if they had not dealt their pick. Later when they had the opportunity to acquire him in the Marian Hossa trade they did so. Don Waddell told Esposito "to relax and try to have some fun" in juniors.

Now there are two ways to look at a guy like Esposito. On the one hand, you could say that some 18 year old young men are simply not prepared to handle the scrutiny of being the "best player" in hockey mad Canada--with time Esposito might mature into a tougher individual and become a productive NHLer. On the other hand, the NHL is a pressure packed league and you need guys on your roster who can handle the intensity and bright spotlight of high leverage situations.

The thing that concerns me most about watching Esposito at the WJC so far is that the weight of Canada doesn't rest on his shoulders--John Tavares is carrying that particular cross. This is not his draft year and he's not facing the other team's best defensemen. Yet even with these lower expectations and lower pressure level he looks very ordinary matched up against other top hockey players in his age group.

He was always a high risk/high reward sort of prospect--right now I'm not terribly encouraged by what I see. The guy has skill but seems to really lack the mental composition needed to play versus top competition. He could still turn things around but right now his stock is continuing to fall in my opinion.

Big WJC Battle Tonight! USA v Canada!

2008-12-31T08:34:00.002-05:00

Tonight is the most celebrated game of the World Junior Tournament prior to the medal playoffs. The game will be carried on the NHL Network live.

Here are the draft eligible players for each squad if you want to check on the talent that will be available at the draft this summer.

Team USA
Jordan Schroeder #19: Right handed forward from U. of Minnesota, ranked #6 on International Scouting Services most recent draft list.

Team Canada
John Tavares: #19: Potential NHL superstar who has who is battling Victor Hedman to be the #1 overall pick this summer. Right now ISS has Hedman ahead and Tavares #2.

Evander Kane #29: Forward from the Vancouver Giants. ISS had him ranked as a high first rounder (7th overall) and it seems he has lived up to the advance praise.

Ryan Ellis #8: Defenseman from Windsor Spitfires. A bit on the small side at 5'9" but ISS ranks him at a mid first rounder (16th overall).

Tickermaster Hurting

2008-12-30T17:51:00.002-05:00

While driving in the car this afternoon Clark Howard mentioned that Ticketmaster net income fell 76% in the last quarter and the organization has begun experimenting with surcharge free ticket sales.

Clark Howard has regularly ripped Ticketmaster for grotesque "surcharges" on tickets that only cost pennies to print and mail. In reality what Ticketmaster was doing was paying kickbacks to arenas and then charging even more to consumers once they became a monopoly supplier.

I'm one of those consumers who will go to significant lengths to avoid the extra changers. I always buy my Braves tickets at the box office and same with extra Thrasher tickets. I often buy my concert tickets at the box office as well to avoid paying the "monopoly" charges.

PK Struggles: Defense or Goalies?

2008-12-27T10:01:00.002-05:00

Last year the Thrashers were outscored by roughly 60 goals and they are on pace to almost exactly match that this year. The difference is that last year most of the damage was happening at Even Strength and this year the damage is happening on special teams. That league worst PK is hiding some of the improvements in the ES Offense. Tidy up the PK and this team is probably on pace for the 80 point season I expected out of them.

Why does the Thrashers PK stink so bad after adding Marty Reasoner in the off season? The biggest reason is in net I think. So far this season Hedberg has played in half of the Thrashers games. That a much higher percentage of games than in the two previous seasons. What does that have to do with the PK? Hedberg is one of the absolute worst goalies in the NHL while on the PK. Don't believe me, consider these rankings.

2008-09 PK Save Percentage
Ranked 34 out of 50 goalies Lehtonen
Ranked 50 out of 50 goalies Hedberg

2007-08 PK Save Percentage
Ranked 17 out of 44 goalies Lehtonen
Ranked 42 out of 44 goalies Hedberg

2006-07 PK Save Percentage
Ranked 18 out of 45 goalies Lehtonen
Ranked 44 out of 45 goalies Hedberg

When it comes to PK SV% Hedberg is ranked dead last, 2nd to dead last and 3rd to dead last over the last three seasons. Lehtonen and Hedberg play in front of the same PK units and yet Lehtonen is MUCH better on the PK than Hedberg--and Kari just missed two months and the Thrashers PK went into the toilet--coincidence? I'll let you make your own judgment.

Here's another way to look at it. What is the team PK% when each goalie is in the net?

2008-09
75.4% Lehtonen
72.4% Hedberg
66.7% Pavelec

2007-08
82.4% Lehtonen
76.5% Hedberg
63.2% Pavelec

Basically when Hedberg and Pavelec have been in netthe last two season the Thrashers PK has been incredibly bad. Pavelec in particular is curious case because his ES SV% wasn't so bad last season but his PK SV% is just brutal. Lehtonen has ranked ahead of both guys each season playing in behind the same defensemen. Pavelec has ranked worst in both seasons playing behind the same defense. How much blame goes to the D and how much to the goaltenders?

Waddell's Assesment of the Thrashers

2008-12-26T22:56:00.005-05:00

I recently called on the ownership or management to speak out about the team and to his credit Don Waddell did a Q and A with beat writer Mike Knobler on the state of the team which was published on Christmas Day. I'd like to consider two points from this discussion.

Q. Your main focus last summer was to shore up the defense. Where do you think that stands?
A. Last year we were one of the bottom teams in points from our defensemen. We’re certainly generating a lot more. I think our defense is much better, we move the puck much better. That doesn’t explain why we are still among the bottom in giving up too many goals. I think that’s not just a defensemen chore. The forwards all have a responsibility in the defensive zone, and if you don’t work as a unit out there as five [skaters], that’s when things happen. That’s been the biggest disappointment, that we have given up so many goals.

I watch the team and I see a defense that is more mobile and passes better than perhaps any Thrasher defense in team history. And yet when I look at the stats here is what I see:

26th Ranked Even Strength Defense (ranked 27th last season)
30th Ranked Special Teams Defense (ranked 28th last season)
30th Ranked Total Defense (ranked 30th last season)

So what is going on? They look better but don't rank any higher than last year's club?

The team is playing a more wide open style and the DEFENSEMEN are helping create offense in the absence. The improved defensive corps has boosted the team offense but not the team defense when combined with the new coaching regime.

10th Ranked Even Strength Offense (up greatly from 21st last season)
18th Ranked Special Teams Offense (up slightly from 21st last season)
11th Ranked Total Offense (up greatly from 23rd last season)

A lot of fans are blaming Coach Anderson right now about his "style" but a candid examination of the facts shows that he took over a team ranked in the bottom third of the NHL in offense and his "style" pushed that offense from 23rd to 11th overall while subtracting Marian Hossa at the same time. That's quite a feat--and it is a feat that came at the price of allowing more high quality scoring chances and ultimately goals against.

If the Thrashers had selected a more defensive coach we'd all be complaining about the lack of offense. Without Anderson's style this team would struggle to score more than 2 goals most nights. The reality is that the Atlanta Thrashers don't have a bunch of All Star candidates on their roster and they had to pick their poison--they choose to go with a coach who emphasizes offense and prays for great saves. A different coach might have emphasized defense and prayed for goals.

Thrashers Future Part 1: WJC Starts Today!

2008-12-26T09:15:00.003-05:00

The Thrashers have a home game today, but realistically the outcome of that match is fairly immaterial because they have dug themselves such an enormous hole that the playoffs are now out of reach unless they reel off a 7 game winning steak...I'm not holding by breath for that to happen.

Perhaps the most important Thrashers related event taking place is up in Ottawa where the IIHF World Under 20 Championship (more commonly referred to as the "World Juniors" or "WJC") begins. All the US and Canada games will be broadcast on the NHL Network. .

Both Canada and USA have some elite prospects who will go very high in the 2009 NHL Draft this summer. The majority of Team Canada has already been drafted already, but they do feature Tavares who is in the running to be picked #1 or #2 overall this summer. Your Thrashers look to be in the running for the lottery that will determine who receives one of the top three picks.

Unfortunately US and Canada are in the same pool for round robin play which means we will not get to see Team Sweden or Team Russia until the playoff round (assuming they qualify). The other big name for the 2009 NHL Draft is Victor Hedman who plays for Team Sweden. Sweden is reputed to have a bumper crop of young talent this draft year so I'm expecting them to make the playoff round and face off against either the US or Canada which will put them on the NHL Network.

If you're watching feel free to post your impressions in the comments section. Sadly I'm traveling to a dark region of the USA where my relatives don't receive the NHL Network. I'm recording all the games and will catch up in a couple of days.

500 Points for Kovlachuk!

2008-12-23T21:35:00.003-05:00

He did it!

Perhaps the classiest part was that after getting the 500th point, he passed up a chance to score an empty net goal and dished off to Colby Armstrong who put it into the net.

Oystrick: A Bird or Defenseman?

2008-12-23T21:27:00.004-05:00

The Islanders broadcaster last night seemed to struggle distinguishing a certain Thrasher player from a bird reputed to put its head in the sand. Let's see if you can tell the figure out which of the following pictures is an actual Atlanta Thrasher

"Oystrick"

"Ostrich"

Hopefully that college hockey expert Billy Jaffe can help the Islanders play-by-play guy with his "oystrick/ostrich" problem.

Luck and the NHL Standings

2008-12-23T04:58:00.005-05:00

Luck happens.

In the NHL sometimes the puck hits on the inside portion of the post and it goes into the net and sometimes the puck hits the outside portion and it deflects wide. The adage is that the "bounces" even out in the long run. But is this true? What part of hockey is "luck" and what part is "skill" (a "skill" being a tendency that is repeated over time while "luck" is a tendency that does not repeat i.e. is random over time)

Tyler Dellow had an outstanding post that shed some light on distinguishing team "luck" from team "skill" in the NHL standings. He showed that any club that has a higher (or lower) than average Save Percentage or Shot Percentage at Even Strength can not repeat that pattern later in the season.

What does that mean in plain English? Teams can get hot shooting the puck in the short run but in the long run your ES offense is a product of getting shots on net--you can not count on having an above average ST% all season. The same is true for you team goaltending--a net minder might get hot for a while but basically if you're giving up a ton of shots eventually it is going to kick your GAA in the teeth--that hot net minder will return to Earth.

The bottom line is that shot ratios matter. Good teams out-shot their opponents at ES and bad teams don't--you can only avoid gravity for a short while. A team's SF/SA ratio is a strong predictor of their final ESGF/ESGA ratio.

In his post, Tyler put up a list of the luckiest to least lucky as of November 30th. I've updated what he did so that it is up to date through 12-22.

How is this information useful to you the fan? Well the teams at the top of this list are more likely to see a fall in the standings while the teams at the bottom of the list are due a few more positive bounces the rest of the way--assuming these teams ES Shots For/Shots Against ratio remain steady the rest of the season.

Luckiest NHL Clubs at Event Strength
1.14 BOS (don't hand them the Cup just yet)
1.12 PIT (they're good, but not quite that good)
1.11 DAL (yikes, look out below)
1.10 NJD
1.09 ATL (looking more like a lock for the Taveras/Hedman lottery)
1.08 VAN
1.08 CHI
1.05 ANA

Teams with little "luck" bias so far.
1.03 MTL
1.02 CBJ
1.01 PHI
1.01 NSH
1.01 WSH
1.00 TOR
1.00 SJS
0.99 FLA
0.99 STL
0.99 EDM
0.98 PHX
0.98 CGY
0.97 BUF

The most "unlucky" clubs so far:
0.96 COL
0.94 MIN
0.94 CAR
0.93 DET (scary thought)
0.92 LAK
0.91 TBL
0.89 NYR (better than they look)
0.88 OTT (will better luck be enough to get them back into the hunt?)
0.84 NYI

A Festivus of Turnovers

2008-12-22T22:15:00.003-05:00

Last night at Philips Arena a young hockey team with a new head coach came and played with great determination. With young guys playing key positions and getting ice time in crucial situations, the young team played excellent defensive hockey and ran away with the game that should have been closer on paper. Unfortunately that team was the Toronto Maple Leafs, not the Atlanta Thrashers.

The Thrashers gifted the Toronto Maple Leafs numerous extra possessions with turnover after turnover. Not a single Thrasher defensemen had an acceptable game. Time after time the Thrashers made elementary mental errors such as passing the puck behind a man, passing too far in front of a man, passing the puck to the other team or passing the puck to one in particular (while on an odd man rush).

Do any of these players feel guilty for taking the organizations money after an effort like that? They ought to be donating the pay check for this game to charity because they certainly didn't earn it. They should thank their lucky stars that they don't play in Detroit, Toronto or Montreal because they would be getting ripped apart by the local media and fans on sports radio stations. Here they can tip-toe out of the locker room and finish up their Christmas shopping without worrying any embarrassing comments from fans at the mall.

Does anyone on this team ever hold his fellow teammates accountable? Because this was the sort of game that should have resulted in either a broken TV in the locker room, water bottles being throw across the room or somebody shouting in some one's face after the game. I can guarantee you that Mark Messier wouldn't just dress quietly and slip out the door after watching his team mail it in like that. If someone wants the "C" on their chest tonight was an opportunity to show that you deserved to be called a leader. In my book only Armstrong and the 4th line were the only Thrashers who looked like they came to play.

Kovalchuk has gone back to over-passing again. I ripped into him several weeks ago because he seemed to forget that he has perhaps the most dangerous shots in the NHL. Here is a man on the verge of his 500th point who has a shot that ranks up there with guys like Brett Hull and he keeps passing it off or waiting until after the defenseman closes off the shooting lane. Memo to Kovalchuk: you shoot when the lane is there, not when you "feel" like it. You can score from just inside the blueline--you don't need to skate into the top of the circle and let the defenseman block your shot or take away the lane--rip it higher in the zone!

The Little White Russian line was far too "euro" last night, they were content with making short passes on the periphery and passed up several chances to put the puck on net. They finally did manage to score a goal but the game was out of hand at that point.

The entire defense corps ought to be ashamed of themselves. In baseball they have a term "defensive indifference" which means that a runner advanced with no attempt by the defense to stop him. Well the official scorer for the Thrashers-Leafs game could have used that phrase on the first three Leafs goals. Go and watch the replay and you'll see one wide open Leaf goal scorer standing unmarked and unmolested time after time. Even the "crease clear" Valabik fails to mark a Toronto player who gets an easy tap in goal. Lehtonen had no protection what so ever.

Defensive Indifference? Who was on the ice when the Leafs Scored
Goal 1 Oystrick-Schnedier Kovalchuk-Reasoner-Thorburn
Goal 2 Enstrom Havelid Little-White-Kozlov
Goal 3 Hainsey Valabik Kovalchuk-Reasoner-Thorburn
Goal 4 Enstrom Havelid Perrin Reasoner (PPGA)
Goal 5 Oystrick Schnedier Kovalchuk-Reasoner-Thorburn
Goal 6 Oystrick SchnedierLittle-White-Kozlov Kovalchuk (ENGA)

Cumulative Damage: Players on the ice for
4 Against: Kovalchuk, Reasoner
3 Against: Oystrick, Schneider Thorburn
2 Against: Enstrom Havelid Little White Kozlov
1 Against: Hainsey Valabik Perrin
0 Against: Slater-Crabb-Boulton Williams Armstrong

Hockey Fans, Like Population, Move Southward

2008-12-21T20:41:00.005-05:00

One point that I think people often forget when discussing the history of NHL expansion into the south is that the US population has made a rather dramatic shift southward since World War II. With the rise of modern air conditioning warm weather climates have grown MUCH faster than cold weather climates on average. In some cases the growth has been absolutely astounding. In 1960 the Atlanta metro area had less than 1 million people and in 2007 it has over 5 million. That's a gain of 4 million in about 40 years.

When the NHL began the Northeast and Midwest industrialized before the south and west and therefore that part of the US had the largest cities. That is no longer the case. People who grew up as NHL fans have relocated all across the sunbelt. Many of the people who rooted for Howe, Hull, Clarke, Esposito and Orr have moved to the south or their children have.

Let's take a look at shifts in the US metro population and the location of NHL franchises over time. Below are the top US cities circa 1960. The Original Six cities are colored green and as you can see the NHL had pretty decent coverage of the big cities--especially when you consider that SF and LA would have involved very long train rides in the pre-jet age. Philadelphia was the most obvious omission as of 1960.

1960 TOP METRO AREAS OVER 1.5 MILLION
15.4 NYC (RANGERS)
7.7 L.A.
6.7 CHI (BLACKHAWKS)
5.0 PHI
4.1 DET (RED WINGS)
3.3 SF/SJ
3.1 BOS (BRUINS)
2.7 CLE
2.4 PIT
2.1 STL
2.1 WAS
1.8 BAL
1.7 DAL
1.6 MIN
1.5 HOU
1.5 CIN

From 1968-1979 the NHL expanded by 12 from 6 teams to 18 teams. The Seals/Barons franchise was contracted and four WHA franchises were absorbed (mostly based in Canada: QUE, EDM, WIN, HART) bringing the NHL to 21 teams at the end of the first expansion era in 1979 (I have colored the 1st expansion teams Blue below).

By 1980 the NHL had effectively covered almost every frost belt metro area. Cleveland was the biggest exception and even that city had the failed Barons franchise for a few years. The NHL even included two rather small markets in Buffalo and Hartford.

1980 TOP US METRO AREAS OVER 1.5 million
16.1 NYC (RANGERS, ISLANDERS)
11.5 LA (KINGS)
7.9 CHI (BLACKHAWKS)
5.5 PHI (FLYERS)
4.6 DET (WINGS)
4.5 SF/SJ
3.5 BOS (BOSTON)
3.1 HOU
3.1 WAS (CAPITALS)
3.0 DAL
2.8 CLE
2.4 STL (BLUES)
2.3 PIT (PENGUINS)
2.2 BAL
2.1 MIN (NORTH STARS)
2.1 SEA
2.0 ATL (FLAMES) moved to CGY
1.9 S.D.
1.7 CIN
1.6 MIA
1.6 DEN (ROCKIES) moved to NJ
1.6 MIL
1.6 TAM
1.6 RVS
1.5 PHX
---------
1.2 BUF (SABRES)
0.7 HART (WHALERS)

The 2nd expansion of the NHL took place in the 1990s as the league expanded from 21 to 30 franchises most of which were located in non-traditional sunbelt markets. Several franchises were also relocated from the smaller Canadian metro areas to the US during this same time period. This resulted in a NHL covering the booming sunbelt cities where millions of Americans were moving to over time. By 2000 the NHL had covered every top 10 US market with the exception of Houston. Expansion and franchise relocation covered rapidly growing cities like Dallas, San Francisco, Atlanta and Miami.

2000 TOP US METRO AREAS OVER 1.5 MILLION
18.3 NYC (RANGERS, ISLANDERS, DEVILS)
12.4 L.A. (KINGS, DUCKS)
9.1 CHI (BLACKHAWKS)
5.8 SF/SJ (SHARKS)
5.7 PHI (FLYERS)
5.1 DAL (STARS) moved from MIN
5.0 MIA (PANTHERS)
4.8 WAS (CAPITALS)
4.7 HOU
4.4 DET (WINGS)
4.4 ATL (THRASHERS)
4.4 BOS (BRUINS)
3.2 Riverside, CA
3.2 PHX (COYOTES) moved from WIN
3.0 SEA
3.0 MIN (WILD)
2.8 S.D.
2.7 STL (BLUES)
2.5 BAL
2.4 PIT (PENGUINS)
2.4 TAM (LIGHTNING)
2.2 DEN (AVALANCHE) moved from QUE
2.1 CLE
2.0 CIN
1.9 POR
1.8 KC
1.8 SAC
1.7 S.A.
1.6 ORL
1.6 COB (BLUEJACKETS)
1.6 Prov. RI
1.6 Nor. VA
1.5 IND
1.5 MIL
---------
1.3 NAS (PREDATORS)
1.2 BUF (SABRES)
0.8 RAL (HURRICANES) moved from Hart

Today the league has good coverage of the growth centers within the United States. Are all of these cities sustainable over the long run? The three cities that concern me the most are the smallest markets. Nashville, Buffalo and Raleigh. Buffalo has an extraordinary level among of support among the community and will probably make it--especially if the Bills were to depart that market.

On the other hand, I'm less optimistic about Nashville and Raleigh. Both are fairly well managed teams which have put a decent hockey product out there most years. They have some very passionate fans in those cities--the question is whether than fan base is large enough to get them through the down periods. I'm not going to say it is impossible for those teams to flourish--it is simply more challenging than it would be if they were located in Houston or Seattle cities that are double or triple their size. Nashville in particular was hurt by the arrival of the NFL in that city. If they had remained the only pro sports team I would be more optimistic about the long term prospects.

Conclusion: The United States population is in one of the great long term migrations (the other two being the westward frontier and the Great Migration of black people out of the south between 1870-1950.) This long running shift from the north to the southern part of the nation is unlikely to end and the NHL is adjusted to these population trends. Migrants from the north form the base of the NHL fan community in each city and the task for the league is to win over more of the naive population to hockey.

How To Price Tickets When Times Are Tough

2008-12-19T11:20:00.003-05:00

David Shoalts has been writing a series of articles about the effect of the fiscal crisis on the NHL. The Thrashers are one of the teams featured in his most recent article about discounting tickets. It is fairly informative and reasonable and I encourage you to read it (click here).

The persons interviewed in the article suggest that discounting tickets in a recession is a big mistake and that teams ought to offer more "service" or "add value" to the package by giving free parking rather than cutting prices. The Thrashers attempted to do exactly this by advertising major new "value" additions this summer (I still have my sheet somewhere around the house). But it didn't stop the sharp decline in sales--you can only hide a poor product behind bells and whistles so long.

Here is a key quote:

"I'm terrified of giving away product," said Mike Veeck, who owns and promotes six minor-league baseball franchises and is the son of the first promotional genius in that sport, the late Bill Veeck.

"If people are cutting prices, then maybe something is wrong with their original pricing structure," Veeck said. "Fans get used to paying your discount in about 12 seconds. Then that becomes the norm and you have to pay tremendously to get them back."

Now I hear what Veeck is saying but he is partially right and partially wrong. The NHL has a VERY different customer base than minor baseball. In the NHL you have corporate clients who have fairly inelastic demand (they buy tickets regardless of the team's performance) and well off individuals for whom price is also fairly inconsequential. Then you have the rest of the fan base where demand is elastic (varies depending upon the quality of the team). In the case of Mike Veeck's six minor league baseball teams almost all of his customers fall into the latter category. They are local families who pay with the expectation of a reasonably entertaining baseball experience. Not too many corporations buy up rows of seats at minor league baseball parks.

What NHL teams like the Thrashers and Panthers have done is essentially created a two tier pricing structure. The listed "ticket prices" are essentially only paid by corporate clients and people for whom price or quality is not a major issue. Virtually everyone else who buys tickets get a discount (very heavy this year) on the nominal price of the tickets. This is in part a concession to the reality that there is weak demand for a poor on-ice product. Mike Veeck doesn't have Home Deport, Delta Airlines or Coke buying up luxury boxes and rows of seats at full price--the Atlanta Thrashers do have that. If they lowered all face value prices they would be throwing away the money from the inelastic consumers. If they don't lower the prices for the elastic demand consumers they leave that money on the table.

In the short run, a two tiered pricing structure is logical--but you can only get away with it for so long. The more consumers become aware of it the less effective it is. And that's the rub. I'm one of those people who always bought season tickets and I stopped this year because I realized what was happening--virtually any single game ticket could be had at below face price if I was patient. In the long run this is not a sustainable approach because consumers learn and change their purchasing behavior. In this sense, Mike Veeck is right that giving away the product is a self defeating strategy in the long run.

The Thrashers cannot heavily discount single game tickets forever. Eventually the club must offer a compelling product that will allow them to end heavy discounts on all tickets. That is the only way they can reduce the red ink associated with owning this franchise. It turns out that the NHL in the south is like most other business--price is linked to the quality of the product you are selling. If you're an owner in Montreal or Toronto this might not be true. But even in original six cities like Detroit, Boston and Chicago long stretches of disappointing teams have resulted in rows and rows of empty seats. Even in the "Traditional Markets" the product matters. Montreal and Toronto are the only markets I know of where you could put a lipstick on a pig then hang a NHL jersey over it and charge the locals $70 to watch it. (I'm not sure that having a market where people buy hockey regardless of the quality of the product should be a point of pride.)

This is not Toronto or Montreal. When the team qualified for the playoffs they saw major increases in ticket sales and when the team failed miserably they saw a major collapse in sales. How would you try and sell a decade with no playoff victories? There are many times where I genuinely fell bad for the Sales and Marketing people who work for the Atlanta Thrashers. They try hard but they have faced a nearly impossible task for 10 years. You can only sell "NHL excitement" so long before the losses take their toll on consumer demand.

Winning is the ONLY long term solution if the team is to stay in Atlanta and hold down losses. In this sense the interests of ownership and fans are linked. We want to see some exciting playoff victories and they need those victories to make money (or at least not lose their shirt). To my mind this is the best part of being a gate driven league--the pressure is always on to win.

In the NBA the Hawks were brutal for years but the TV money made the financial consequences of being terrible more palatable for ownership. In the NFL you see teams like the Bengals who field a sub-par team every year and walk away with profits because of the TV rights money. In the NHL you must win at least every so often. That ultimately is why there are discounted tickets in most of the markets who have struggled on the ice in recent years. Winners get paid and losers don't.

Scott Lehman Makes NHL Debut

2008-12-18T22:17:00.003-05:00

In one of the more surprising player personnel moves of the season the Thrashers called up Scott Lehman from the AHL to fill in for an injured Exelby. The Lehman choice was unexpected because there are other players in the Thrashers system who are brighter prospects. But both Arturs Kulda and Grant Lewis have been felled by injuries lately. Kulda was not dressed in the Wolves AHL game and Lewis had played just one game after being out of for weeks.

The call-up of Lehman brought back memories of the surprising one NHL game for Luke Sellars who was playing in the ECHL for Greenville at the time. The Chicago Wolves were way out west in Salt Lake City and a late injury made it impossible to get connecting flights, so Sellars drove down from Greenville and played less than 5 minutes. Not a long NHL career, but at least he got his name in the NHL record books. Lehman too now has his name in the NHL record book. Lehman played even less than Sellars 3:30 coming in at 3:03 for the game.

UPDATE:
With Lehman playing just 3 minutes who received more ice time? Below I have each Thrashers defenseman's average TOI (Time On Ice) for the season and their ice time last night.
Usual/Pens Game
23:32/25:52 Hainsey
16:29/20:10 Oystrick
23:05/23:24 Enstrom
20:51/22:42 Havelid
13:42/16:20 Valabik
N.A./3:03 Lehman

Comment: I had expected to see Hainsey or Enstrom play 27 minute but the Atlanta coaching staff chose to give the 3rd pairing guys more ice time versus the Penguins. So Oystrick broke 20 minute mark (probably for the 1st time all season) and Valabik broke 15 minutes (likely a personal best as well).

The End of Print Newspapers Draws Closer

2008-12-17T04:05:00.005-05:00

As a kid I grew up reading the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press. I can still remember the NHL beat writers (Keith Gave and Cynthia Lambert) and I looked forward to reading their daily updates. I used to save some of the better photographs and put them up on my wall. I very much enjoy reading a physical copy of the NY Times or Washington Post (when I lived in DC). A newspaper makes a fine way to pass the time while eating your lunch.

Both Detroit papers just announced they are cutting back home delivery to just three days a week. Print newspapers have been steadily reducing their staff for several years now as advertisers shift more to the internet and costs rise and subscribers die (newspaper reads are much older than the general population). I see no reason to think this trend will reverse and the current recession will only intensify pressures. The Tribune company declared bankruptcy this month as well. Cox Communications (which publishes the AJC) will close their Washington D.C. bureau office to save costs. Newspapers are going the way of the dinosaur, the only question is who soon and how will the new digital media world function.

Clearly the future is online content, but right now most papers allow free access to their sites. There is simply not enough money in online advertising to make that sustainable in the long run. It seems to me that the newspaper industry ought to create an industry standard pay-per-story system in which readers have something like a paypal account and they are charged .05 for each article that they view. If the entire industry adopted an easy mechanism and the cost per view remained small I think consumers would accept it after some grumbling.

What would sell in a pay per view environment? Certainly a beat writer covering major professional sports would receive regular hits by fans of a team. There will always be a need for game stories and practice updates--fans want to know who is on what line and when so and so is going to return.

On the other hand when it comes to opinion content, would you pay .05 to read columns by Mark Bradley or Jeff Schultz? Personally, I think Schultz is lazy and Mark Bradley simply doesn't pay enough attention to hockey to have much interesting to say. Or would you choose to read Rawhide, the guys at Blueland Chronicle, Thrashers Talons or the other blogs that are out there?

What if the AJC.com simply stopped covering the Atlanta Thrashers? There was talk last season about the paper cutting back on money for travel. Some newspapers in New York and Los Angeles have chosen to just run AP stories and save money on travel.

The Washington Captials have responded to low newspaper coverage by their two major daily papers by embracing bloggers and fan created digital media. The other thing the Capitals have done include sending some of their local bloggers to cover an international tournament ignored by the local papers.

If the AJC.com stops covering the Thrashers how would they respond? My guess is that they would take Ben Wright on the road and have him act as an in-house beat reporter. Would they open the door of the massive and mostly empty press box? I have my doubts. When it comes to media coverage the Thrashers are fairly risk averse.

Despite receiving minimal attention from local print, TV and radio they have held bloggers at arms length. There have been exactly two blogger events in franchise history. One game where we were allowed to sit up in the press box and observe the post-game news conference (but not ask any questions). The other event was a roundtable with Coach Anderson at camp this year. They've let us see what it is like to be treated like media, but they don't treat us like media.

At this point I've been credentialed a couple of times up in Nashville by the Predators organization. If I ever go to a game in Washington I will be credentialed there as well. It was interesting to attend a game as press. The stats updates mid-game were nice for a stats guy like me. The post-game interviews are very quick and you must have your question formed ahead of time or the whole thing will be over before you know it. I know some bloggers take the position that they don't care about access, but I disagree. There are subtle things such as body language that you can pick up in person and you can ask the question on your mind instead of just hoping someone else asks the question as you watch on a webcast.

So the future of digital media draws a step closer this week. Print newspapers are not going to recover or rebound. The largest print advertiser in the USA are automotive companies and they are hanging by a thread and will be looking to cut costs. Classified ads have shifted to Craig's List or Ebay and they're not coming back. In the new digital press, part-time bloggers like myself will be competing with the columnists like Mark Bradley and Jeff Schultz--and I welcome that contest.

Who Moves the Puck? Update

2008-12-17T00:19:00.002-05:00

I seem to have moved past the "anger" phase in the stages of grief as I mourn the death of the Thrashers playoffs hopes (I didn't expect them to make it, but I did expect them to hang around in the race longer than this.)

Back on December 2nd I posted about "zone shift" statistic. Using Vic Ferrari's great website Time On Ice you can see which players come off the ice after a ES whistle and which players go onto the ice for the faceoff. Using this data you can see which players move the puck into the offensive zone from their own end (positive rating below) and which players are more likely to lose ground and end up coming off the ice with puck back in their defensive zone. Well here are the updated "zone shift" rankings for the 2008 Thrashers.

Goalies
+9 Lehtonen
+1 Pavelec
-93 Hedberg

G Comments: I find that the goalie stats startling for several reasons. The team has a huge negative number when Hedberg starts but is almost even when the other goalies are in net. Hedberg is the best puckhandler of the three and sometimes clears the zone himself but those puck skills are not showing up in the zone shift metric.

I'm been arguing for a while that Hedberg is just not that great of a goalie and the Thrashers would benefit from an upgrade (his SV% ranks near the bottom every season). Others have pointed to his winning percentage and argued that the Thrashers play harder for him.

Personally, I think he's just been lucky to be in net on nights when the Thrashers offense clicks--much like a baseball pitcher who wins extra games because of high run support. I'm not going to declare a victory just yet, but the zone shift stat certainly casts doubt on the idea that the Thrashers play harder for Hedberg--if that were true why do they end up with so many more faceoffs in their defensive zone? I see this is more evidence that Hedberg is benefiting from offensive good fortune.

Defense
+12 Oystrick
+10 Bogosian
+9 Enstrom
+6 Schneider
+4 Valabik
-5 Hainsey
-18 Exelby
-26 Havelid

D Comments: Recently the coaching staff has taken to pairing Oystrick and Valabik with Enstrom and Havelid. This mixing and matching of defensemen is pretty cool in that we can see how Enstrom and Havelid perform when they are apart. Since December 2nd Enstrom has gone from a +5 to a +9. The good news is that Enstrom seems to have righted the ship after a rough start and he is now the leader in the zone shift metric among the defensemen receiving top four ice time. When Enstrom is on the ice his passing and skating skills help move the play away from his own net.

The bad news is that Nic Havelid's zone shift number keeps getting worse, falling from a -19 to a -26 in the last two weeks. I've really enjoyed watching Havelid work hard every night, but he should not be re-signed when his contract expires. The warning signs are everywhere that he is ceasing to be an effective top four NHL defensemen (assuming he's not playing hurt like Kozlov was all last year). I'm afraid the Thrahsers will re-sign him and then be "surprised" that he's not as good as he once was.

The other defense paring that regularly plays together --Hainsey and Exelby--also has a sizable gap as well, with Hainsey a slight negative and Exelby the 2nd worst on the club. I've harped on Exelby's lack of outlet passing and his tendency to just dump the puck many times. If Hainsey were paired with someone who had more skill I suspect he might have a positive zone shift number.

Probably the best news here is that the Thrashers youngest D (Bogosian, Enstrom, Oystrick) all have positive zone shift numbers and these guys will be here for the long haul. Throw in the fact that Hainsey might have a positive number if paired with a better partner and there some reason for long term optimism on the blueline.

Forwards
+31 Reasoner
+30 Armstrong
+9 Thorburn
+6 Williams
+6 Christensen
+5 Kozlov
0 Perrin
-1 Little
-3 Crabb
-7 Kovalchuk
-20 White
-23 Boulton
-28 Slater

Here's the good news. The Thrashers have a 3rd line worthy of a playoff team: Armstrong-Reasoner-Thorburn were terrific together at taking the puck and playing in the offensive zone while being matched up against the other team's scoring line. The bad news is that the Thrashers lack a 1st, 2nd and 4th line that is worthy of a playoff team.

4th liners Boulton, Slater and Thorburn were steadily losing ground in the battle for puck position. Since Joey Crabb arrived he appears to have helped stop the bleeding on the 4th line. Only time will tell if Crabb can keep this line even or if they fall back into their retreating habits.

The "Mixed Drink Line" of Little-White-Russian is a mixed bag. Kozlov is a net positive, Little even and White a big minus. Much of White's ugliness came while centering Kovalchuk--but the whole line has lost ground in the month of December. Together the Little-White-Russian line seems to break even--but on a playoff caliber team your 2nd line must do better than just break even.

The worst news comes when you look at the Thrashers candidates for the #1 line. Kovalchuk has had three different centers so far this season. The Kovalchuk-White combo at the start of the season was nothing short of a disaster using the zone shift metric. Then we saw the Kovalchuk-Williams combo and that too was pretty much a disaster in terms of territory lost. Finally Kovalchk was paired with the team's best territorial centerman and the bleeding has stopped. Kovalchuk's zone rating has improved since 12-2 and Reasoner has been a slight positive since that point.

The good news is that our #1 line no longer is retreat game after game. The bad news is that our awesome checking line has been broken up. The new Armstrong-Williams-Perrin combo has been roughly break even.

Conclusion:
NHL hockey is very fast. There a lot of things happening all at once out there and the human brain can't possibly comprehend it all. That's one reason I really like this zone shift stat because it provides a handy little indicators for one of the most basic aspects of the game--is the team advancing or retreating when a player is out there on the ice at Even Strength?

This week the Thrashers were de facto eliminated from the playoff race. Turning our attention to next season and beyond the central question is what is causing this team to languish in the standings and who should be back next year? Using zone shift as a guide I would not re-sign Havelid and I would try very hard to re-sign Reasoner. Slater is a RFA and I would let him walk. Todd White has two more years and $5 million owed to him--is it possible to find a trading partner for him? I have no idea why Don Waddell felt the need to give Eric Boulton a two year deal but he's another UFA mistake signing that should be moved if possible. There are better checkers available every off season and with Valabik on the roster he's not even the scariest fighter on the team anymore.

Esposito Makes Team Canada for WJC

2008-12-15T12:59:00.003-05:00

Angelo Esposito made the cut for Team Canade after coming up short on three previous attempts. Other Thrashers in the tournament include Lasu who will play for Team Sweden and Lucenius was invited to Team Finland's camp.

The Thrashers seem very likely to have a top three pick. You can scout the top guys yourself as Tavares will play for Canada and Hedman will play for Sweden. Here is a list of Kyle Woodlief's Top 10 for the 2008 Draft. The Thrashers pick is likely to be one of the guys on this list.

D Victor Hedman
C John Tavares
D Jared Cowen
D Matt Duchesne
C Braydon Schenn
RW Magnus Pjrvi-Svensson
C Evander Kane
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
LW Jeremy Morin
C Nazem Kadri

Thrashers Steadily Destroying Their Own Brand

2008-12-14T15:22:00.006-05:00

The Thrashers are headed for their 11th entry draft next summer. For 10 of those 11 years the Thrashers have sat in the first row of tables (reserved for those teams with the lowest points the prior season). Slowly, year-by-year and step-by-step the appetite for NHL hockey is being killed off in this city.

Atlanta has 5 million people, almost 1 million of them were born up in cold weather states (Atlanta has nearly as many Yankee-born as the Buffalo area). Many of these Yankee-born people know and like hockey. Many of the transplants grew up rooting for other teams (for me it was the Red Wings). In a city filled with transplants you have to give the locals a compelling reason to get excited about the local product. Year after year the Thrashers have branded themselves as losers.

But nobody is coming to games anymore.

Heck, even I'm not going to all the home games anymore. It used to take something like the Black Death to keep me away, but this year I've missed four home dates already. I'm probably one of the biggest die hard fans around, but increasingly I have to push myself to care about yet another losing season. I skipped both home games this week to go play ice hockey -- and I don't regret it.

I don't care what the announced attendance is -- just look at your television and you can see row after row with big swatches of empty seats. Weeknights have always been tough in a city like Atlanta. The urban sprawl makes for a hellish commute for many people (yet the Thrashers moved the games up to 7:00 from 7:30 on weeknights). But now even weekend games are not that full.

On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the Thrashers gave away kids jerseys at a matinee game versus the Blues. Usually weekend games + holiday weekend + great giveaway = sellout. Not this time. I walked into the game right before puck drop and they still had boxes of kids jerseys available. Just two hours before game time, a season ticket holder friend of mine called up and offered me four lower bowl seats. I had already purchased a $10 single, but I took him up on his offer and found three people to join me. I ended up giving away the single to a stranger because a $10 ticket has zero resale value.

My friend said "they just comped me four tickets for some reason." I suspect that the reason was advance sales were "not good" and they figured getting a few more bodies in the building and would at least net them some concession money.

The prices keep getting cheaper and cheaper for tickets. For five years I purchased full season tickets. In most years it was my primary entertainment expenditure. To have NHL season tickets was a dream of mine since I was a 15-year-old kid envious of those ticket holders in Joe Louis Arena in Michigan.

The Thrashers were bad when I first bought, but I was patient and the tickets were cheap. I rejoiced in the victories and sorrowed in the many many losses. But I figured better days were ahead and we would someday have great seats for playoff games. But the good days never arrived and every year we had to deal with drunk college students with discounted tickets in front of us standing up in the middle of the play like they were at a Braves game and the pitcher was up to bat. Every year the people sitting around us paid less than what we had.

Last year was the final straw as a friend of mine was able to get discounted tickets for almost every game including weekends. I decided that if the franchise was offering a better deal for single tickets I would take that route. I'd rather be the savvy consumer than feel like a sucker 10 games into the season. (Note: I have no problem paying more money for a better hockey product, I just have a problem with paying more money that others for the same hockey product.)

So far it has worked out great. I have yet to pay more than $25 for a game. I've received numerous free tickets, bought them for less than half price on the secondary market. When that fails ordered them through the local hockey league which offers heavy discounts.

Yet even despite the cheap de facto prices, nobody is coming to games. If you're a NHL owner you look at home dates with the Red Wings and Penguins as money makers because you expect a full house. But not even Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin could sell out Philips Arena on a Thursday evening in November. The Penguins are returning this Thursday and I just received an special offering price cuts for this game as well.

What will happen next to NHL hockey in this city? Consider the following:

The New Jersey Devils were absolutely terrible for years and then they hired Lou Lamoriello and they became a contender.
The Washington Capitals were shockingly bad for years before they hired David Poile and Bryan Murray and became a perennial playoff club.
The Tampa Lightning were brutal for years until they fired GM Phil Esposito and hired some more competent management.

Will the Thrashers ownership make the major changes that are required. Will they recruit away the Sharks Director of Scouting? Will they find a new GM who has more than IHL experience to run a NHL team?

Or will the Atlanta Thrashers join the ranks of the Oakland Seals--a terribly managed franchise that eventually left that city and finally disbanded in Cleveland? The truth is that the franchise is certainly losing millions of dollars. Those loses will become even larger next season because the Thrashers have zero chance of hitting their revenue sharing goals and therefore they will receive less money from other clubs. Whoever wins the ownership lawsuit could easily blame the fans and complain that "hockey just didn't sell in Atlanta" and try to move the team. But the truth is Atlanta is just as capable of supporting a NHL team as Dallas or Tampa--but you have to win some games to draw people in.

As a fan, there is nothing I can do but wait for ownership to make the HUGE changes that will reinvigorate the NHL in this city. People are tired of losing and they're not coming back until there is a team worth spending their money on.

I can rant and rave but ultimately leadership must come from the top. If ownership intends to compete and win a Stanley Cup someday, they ought to speak about their plan for the future. If folks over at the team headquarters read this, I'm sure they would dispute the charge that there is no plan--but they need to TELL US what they are doing. (And "I'm working as hard as I can every day" does not constitute a plan--that's just a good work ethic.)

Last year Bruce Levenson was a very vocal (some would say too vocal) presence around Philips Arena. This year we've heard almost nothing from management and ownership about their plans for the future. The lack of communication leaves us fans confused and discouraged--and increasingly--absent.

"Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18

McDavid Intended to Sell Off Thrashers

2008-12-12T12:03:00.002-05:00

Just in case you didn't already see this, in Jeff Schultz's interview with David McDavid he explains that he had on the table an offer to sell off the Thrashers to another person after obtaining the teams from AOL/Time-Warner.

To consider an offer from an undisclosed party who wanted to buy the Thrashers for “what we were paying for everything” and keep the team in Atlanta. “I don’t know if we would’ve done it but it would’ve immediately wiped out all of our debt.”

The identity of that person is unclear, but what is clear is that owning a NHL team was not a high priority for McDavid.

Ilya Nikulin an All-Star Starter?

2008-12-12T11:56:00.003-05:00

Way back in 2000 NHL Draft the Thrashers used their 2nd round pick on a Russian defenseman named Ilya Nikulin. In the ensuing years there have been several summer time flirtations with the NHL where it seemed he might make the transition across the Atlantic. Of course, he never did come to play in the NHL, but it does seem that the Thrashers selected a good player. According to James Mirtle he is currently in 4th place in balloting for Team Russia for the KHL All-Star Game which will use a Russia versus the World format.

Rangers Game

2008-12-11T15:07:00.002-05:00

A very entertaining game even if the OT result was not what I had hoped for. The team played a terrific looking 1st period. Darren Eliot was praising them big time on the TV broadcast and I concur. Eliot mentioned the strong puck support and more defensive posture. The thing I noticed is just how fluid the team looked out there on the ice. Unfortunately, they seemed to fall back into some bad habits later in the game, but if what we saw in that 1st period is the future style of the Alanta Thrashers I endorse it.

Corsi Boxscore (net shots fired, a minus 7 means the Rangers fired 7 more shots than the Thrashers did while that player was on the ice at Even Strength)

-7 Hedberg
"It was the best of times it was the worst of times" He made a couple of highway robbery saves and then badly mishandled the puck on 2 of the 3 goals. How do you score that kind of game?

-3 Kovalchuk
-3 Reasoner
+3 Thorburn
We had the angry passionate Ilya last night and he had a pretty good game despite getting owned by Gomez in the fight. This line seems to be some developing some chemistry. Reasoner and Thorburn are able to work the puck in the corner and that gets Kovalchuk a bit more space at times. The problem though is that neither Reasoner nor Thorburn have great hands and Reasoner missed on a pretty good looking chance last night.

Kovalchuk had a costly mistake on the SH goal. He skated backwards and had body position on Callahan but then let Callahan go right around him just in time to have it bounce of the Ranger player's body and into the net for a goal. You can't give up body position that easily.

0 Little
+4 White
+1 Kozlov
The usual good stick, good stake. No goals tonight but some pressure.

-3 Armstrong
-2 Williams
-5 Perrin
This line was not good. Perrin was knocked off the puck multiple times. When you're that small sometimes you need to dump the puck deeper before you are hit so your team doesn't lose control of the situation. On TV Darren Eliot highlighted Williams lackadasical defensive zone coverage that led to a great scoring chance for New York.

-8 Crabb
-2 Slater
-4 Boulton
The Thrashers were badly outshot when Crabb was on the ice, but he scored and had a couple of nice dishes. To be honest, I'm surprised to see his Corsi Number is that ugly because he seemed to be doing good things out on the ice.

-6 Enstrom
-11 Havelid
Entrom made a bad decision at the offensive blueline that led to a 2>1 break for the Rangers (Hedberg) bailed them out. Havelid's -11 is another data point that suggests he might not be able to handle top pairing duties anymore.

+2 Exelby
+3 Hainsey
Only plus pairing in the game. Exelby made a smart clear after Hedberg was down and out after making the initial save.

-2 Oystrick
-2 Valabik
Oystrick was involved in the scoring both ways. He made a great pass to spring Crabb for his breakaway goal. He failed to get the puck out when he had the chance and the Rangers then scored after he fumbled around with a loss puck near Hedberg.

Thrashers Update and Rangers Preview

2008-12-09T12:19:00.009-05:00

I don't think I've every done a game preview for a regular season game here on Thrashers Talons so today's post is a bit of an experiment. Perhaps you will find it useful, perhaps not. If you like it and want me to do more please post a comment.

Breaking Down the Thrashers and Rangers Before I get to the individuals a short explanation of what I'm doing here. (If you're a regular reader this is probably somewhat familiar to you.)

What leads to winning hockey games?
The emerging model of quantitative hockey suggests over the long run winning teams play more in the offensive zone than in their own defensive zone. The idea is that an advantage in puck location leads to an advantage in shots and finally an advantage in goals scored. Again this pattern holds in the long run, in any single game one crucial mistake or one funny bounce can break the pattern--but over the course of the season those odd luck elements are even (i.e. randomly distributed across teams)

Which players play in the other team's end?
There are two ways to measure this 1) faceoffs at the end of shifts or 2) shots fired while a player is on the ice (aka Corsi Numbers). In the long run shift end location and Corsi numbers are correlated with Even Strength Plus/Minus.

How is this stuff useful when thinking about the next game?
Good hockey teams match their best hockey players against the other team's best players in an attempt to gain an advantage. Good hockey teams give more ice time to difference makers and hide their weak guys from the opposition team's strong team. When the Thrashers are at home they have the last change and a much greater chance to obtain favorable matchups. What I'm trying to do in this preview is identify who are the strong and weak lines for each club.

Difference Makers for the Thrashers
Column 1: Where the puck is (measured by end of shift faceoffs)
Column 2: Team shot advantage (measured as net shot attempts, Corsi)
Column 3: Team Scoring advantage (measured as net GF/GA)
All stats are ONLY for Even Strength Situations.
(Players are grouped according to the lines in the last game)

Forwards
1st Line
-34 -57 +1 Kovalchuk
-9 +4 +4 Reasoner
-8 -27 -2 Thorburn
The old 3rd line of Armstrong-Reasoner-Throburn was the best line at playing in the other team's end of the ice. I'm interested in seeing more of Kovalchuk on this line.

2nd Line
-26 -63 +9 Little
-37 -61 +4 White
-26 -31 +1 Kozlov
This line has an unsustainable ES ST% rate. Their plus/minus numbers will suffer as they get more unlucky bounces in the future. They need to play more at the other end of the ice.

3rd Line
-2 +21 -2 Armstrong
-37 -60 -7 Williams
-16 -30 -4 Perrin
A mish-mash line recently created by Coach Anderson. When Armstrong was paired with Reasoner they were extremely effective at playing in the other end (compared to other Thrashers). It will be interesting to see if Reasoner and Armstrong are able to help their new line mates or will be dragged down by them.

4th Line
-20 -32 -2 Slater
-8 -4 +2 Crabb
-15 -46 -2 Boulton
Crabb has been a pleasant surprise, but this forth line has been fortunate not to be scored on more considering how badly they're being outplayed in limited minutes.
-22 -18 -8 Christensen (bench)

Defense
1st Pairing
-25 -54 +2 Enstrom
-69 -101 +4 Havelid
According to practice reports the Swedish D Duo will be split up. They usually get the toughtest assignments at ES. So far they were fortunate to be plus on the season given how much time they have spent in their own end. I'm curious to see how a Enstrom-Oystick pairing looks out there. I fear that Nic Havelid might be wearing down as he gets older.

2nd Pairing
-38 -56 -3 Hainsey
-55 -102 -4 Exelby
I suspect Hainsey's numbers would look a lot better if he spent less time paired with Exelby. The lack of efficient outlet passing from that side of the duo means more time spent defending in the Thrashers end of the ice.

3rd Pairing
Ev -2 -5 Schneider (IND)
+8 +17 E Oystrick
-19 -9 +1 Valabik
Schneider gets a ton of crap from fans but when he's out there the team plays in the other end of the ice as much as it does in his own zone. Schneids gets the puck out. Oystrick has been nothing short of amazing in my view. He looked brutal in the 2007 camp. He didn't look all that impressive in pre-season. He gave up a bad breakaway goal in his first game. Since all that he's settled down and played MUCH better hockey. He and Bogosian have both done a good job of playing in the other team's end of the ice. Oystrick's been a bit sheltered in terms of not facing the opposition's best player--if he is paired with Enstrom in the Ranger game it will be interesting to see how he does with tougher minutes.

Goal
-76 -81 +4 Hedberg
-4 -31 -4 Pavelec
-14 -28 -5 Lehtonen
I don't think Goalies have much impact on net shots of territorial advantage but here they are anyway. Hedberg's ES SV% is unsustainable. He's had some incredible good luck and there's a wicked payment due to the devil later this season.

Team Numbers
??? -116 -3 TEAM ESSV% .914 ESST% 10.0

Thrashers Comments: Given how much time they spend in their own end the Thrashers have been lucky that they have only been outscored by 3 goals (excluding EN goals) at ES so far this year. Something's got to give. Odds are they 're going to start giving up more at ES which makes it that much more imperative to fix the PK unit.

Rangers Comments: The Rangers have incredibly unlucky at ES so far this year. They're doing all the right things--like playing in the offensive zone and piling up shots--they puck just hasn't gone in the net for them. It is a long season and they're due some friendly bounces. This is a better ES team than the ES GF/GA would indicate.

Difference Makers for the Rangers
Column 1: Where the puck is (measured by end of shift faceoffs)
Column 2: Team shot advantage (measured as net shot attempts, Corsi)
Column 3: Team Scoring advantage (measured as net GF/GA)
All stats are ONLY for Even Strength Situations.
(Players are grouped according to the lines in the last game)

Forwards
1st Line
+41 +7 +5 Drury
+54 +96 -4 Naslund
+1 +20 -1 Prucha
2nd line
+29 +102 +8 Zherdev
+22 +91 E Dubinsky
+22 +61 +2 Voros
3rd line
+42 +101 -6 Gomez
E -37 -3 Korpikoski
+69 +66 -5 Callahan
4th line
+14 -20 -5 Orr
-1 -1 -5 Sjostrom
+17 -6 -2 Betts

+18 +27 +3 Dawes (bench)
+6 -23 -2 Fritsche (bench)

Defense 1st pairing
+51 +61 -5 Rozsival
+23 +37 +3 Staal
2nd pairing
+46 +93 -1 Girardi
+26 +24 -1 Mara
3rd pairing
+8 +4 -5 Kalinin
-4 +2 -1 Potter

+66 +83 -1 Redden (out)

Goalies
+85 +147 -6 Lundqvist
+25 +10 -4 Valiquette

Team
??? +77 -7 TEAM ESSV% .920 ESST% 6.0

Garrioch Says Kovalchuk Trade Talk Heating Up

2008-12-07T22:32:00.004-05:00

Thrashers Prospect Annex pointed me to what Bruce Garroich wrote on Sunday:

"Multiple NHL sources told Sun Media yesterday that Thrashers GM Don Waddell has held serious talks with several teams about the possibility of moving the high-scoring winger, who makes $7.5 million (all terms US) and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2009-10 season."

Garroich points to Montreal as a possible trading partner--one that has some expiring contracts which could be dealt to free up cap room and a team that has a bevy of young prospects which the Thrashers would want as part of a major rebuilding process. Personally, I wouldn't be shocked if Edmonton was another possible partner. They have a lot of young talent and they have struggled to score so far this season.

Before we get into the thinking about who could be potentially be traded to Atlanta in a blockbuster deal, let's take a moment to look a hypothetical roster of the 2010 Thrashers and their ages. I'm also going to assume that without Kovalchuk they finish last and get Tavares.

Hypothetical 2010 Atlanta Thrashers
Sterling 26-Tavares 20-Little 22
Machacek 22-Esposito 21-J. Albert 21
LaVallee 24-Holzafel 22-Armstrong 27
Thorburn 27-Slater 27-Crabb 27
Christensen 26

Bogosian 20-Hainsey 29
Enstrom 25-Kulda 22
Zubarev 23-Valabik 24
Oystrick 27

Pavelec 22-Lehtonen 26

Of course not all those prospects are going to become NHL players. But I did this just as a sort of thought experiment to see what the core would look like just by itself. Now to this core you would add the NHL players that would come as part of a Kovalchuk trade (perhaps Chris Higgins and McDonagh or the Koististyn brothers) and the draft picks as well. If the Thrashers also trade Lehtonen and keep Pavelec and Hedberg as their goaltending duo, then you can add another player or pick there.

Furthermore, there would be free agent additions added in the summer of 2009 or summer of 2010. If the NHL salary cap stays flat (which looks increasingly likely) or even declines the Thrashers will have more cap room than nearly any other NHL club. Some free agents might come here simply because Atlanta is in a position to offer them more money.

Would that make the 2010 Thrashers a cup contender? The future is hard to tell but moving Kovalchuk and Lehtonen for more young talent would broaden the base of inexpensive young talent (see Chicago Blackhawks) to which you could add a couple of pricey free agents and suddenly you could have a very impressive squad playing in Philips Arena.

Finally, at the end of his column he makes this less than surprising comment:

"The Thrashers are expected to move D Mathieu Schneider by the March 4 trade deadline. It's believed Waddell has been getting plenty of calls."

If the Thrashers play their cards right they could engage in a genuine rebuild and get quite a haul by dealing Kovalchuk, Lehtonen and Schneider this year. As I've said before, my #1 priority is seeing a Stanley Cup contender in Atlanta. This team will never be able to afford the cap maximum--so any shot at the Cup requires assembling a young squad of players that can contend before too many of the players get expensive. You have to get the maximum return on your investment in player payroll and young talent provides the best route to contending.

Islander Game

2008-12-07T21:48:00.003-05:00

I'm rather busy with my day job at the moment and my enthusiasm for all things Thrashers is low, so I'll keep this short and sweet.

Positives: Nice win over the Islanders on Saturday. Good intensity, clutch shooting, Crabb playing well. Kovalchuk played like a superstar: he was more efficient with few turnovers, he scored three points AND did the post-game interview! We need this Kovy more often. Hedberg with a couple of high way robbery saves. Exelby with a nice offensive play to set up Little's goal.

Negatives: The Islanders are a pretty bad team. That's one good game out of three on the road trip--I'm going to hold off on any celebrations until I see them string together multiple strong efforts in a row.

Special teams were not-so-special. The PP looked disorganized and the PK allowed yet another goal against. Scary Fact: Number of Games in Which the Thrashers PK unit was perfect (no PPGA):

October: 1 game
November: 3 games
December: 0 games

That's right just 4 games out of 26 games has the PK unit keep the opposition from scoring with the extra man.

Going back to November the Thrashers have allowed 18 Power Play Goals Against in just 16 Games Played.

No Pressure in Atlanta

2008-12-06T11:29:00.003-05:00

The Thrashers GM, Coach and all the players ought to be thankful today that they play in Atlanta and not Toronto, Montreal or Detroit. After a brutal stretch, the team has tumbled down to 30th place in a 30 team league. The best thing about playing in Atlanta is that you can screw things up badly and few will notice. You can just be real quiet and maybe nobody will comment on a decade of sub-mediocrity.

If this was a big time hockey town the press would dialing up the owners number to get a comment on the GM's job security. There would be the obligatory "vote of confidence" statement from an owner. Yet here, nothing happens because the Thrashers are simply not a very high priority for the local sports media.

If this was a big time hockey city people would be questioning Coach Anderson's strategies, line combinations and defense pairings daily in the paper. But that mostly happens on message boards and blogs.

If this a big time hockey city players would have to face TV cameras, microphones and reporters with note pads asking questions like "why is this team struggling?" or "why haven't you scored in a month?" or "why was the effort so poor?" But instead players can slip in and out of practice without too many people making them feel guilty. Sure they'd like to win like teams in other cities, but those half million plus pay checks can cushion the blow of playing NHL hockey in Georgia. They don't even have to fear turning on the local sports radio (a medium that thrives on bashing people when they're down) because nobody is ripping them there either, the team is only mentioned on the half hour score updates.

But there's no pressure on this team in this team, there's no accountability from what I can see. The media ignores them and when the team plays brutal everybody clams up. We don't hear much from anyone. What is the master plan from the GM now? Where is the coaching staff going to do about the PK? When are certain players going to get into the season? Usually when people reach the very top of their chosen profession the job comes with a tradeoff; they receive both high pay and a high level of scrutiny, but here we just have the high pay and very little scrutiny.

In big time hockey cities there is constant pressure to play well. That is not the case here. If this franchise is ever going to succeed the pressure has to come from inside the organization. It must either come from an owner who will cease accepting poor performances or it must come from the players themselves or perhaps a star player getting in the face of slacking teammates. Has anyone every broken a $400 TV in the locker room after a stupid loss? If I were an owner I'd happily replace a few broken TVs if it meant getting a better return on my $45,000,000 investment in player payroll. If Ilya Kovalchuk wants the captain job he can earn it by loudly demanding more of himself and his teammates right now.

Some people play hard because they love to win. Some people play hard because someone else puts pressure on them. The media will never be the enforcer in this town, who will demand more of this team?

Who Plays Best with Kovalchuk?

2008-12-05T17:48:00.000-05:00

Players with at least 30 minutes of shared ice time with Ilya Kovalchuk.

GF/20 minutes
1.838 Little
1.242 White
1.085 Christensen
0.926 Perrin
0.879 Williams

If you want to see more information head over to Hockey Analysis.com and you can compare every Thrashers player when they on the ice with any other Thrasher player. Pretty cool stuff.

I Detect A Trend

2008-12-04T01:56:00.002-05:00

Atlanta Players on the ice for Ottawa Goals
2 6 11 14 20
2 6 11 19 (PK)
2 6 17 19 27
2 6 23 42 (PK)
2 28 23 36 42

I'm glad I was busy at hockey practice and didn't throw away 3 hours watching this.

How Many Years Must Atlanta Wait?

2008-12-03T01:08:00.002-05:00

How many years must Atlanta wait for a Stanley Cup Contender?

1999-2000 Payroll Rank: 27 Standings Rank: 30
2000-2001 Payroll Rank: 28 Standings Rank: 28
2001-2002 Payroll Rank: 28 Standings Rank: 30
2002-2003 Payroll Rank: 28 Standings Rank: 23
2003-2004 Payroll Rank: 26 Standings Rank: 21
2004-2005 Lockout: no season
2005-2006 Payroll Rank: 2 Standings Rank: 20
2006-2007 Payroll Rank: 17 Standings Rank: 12
2007-2008 Payroll Rank: 23 Standings Rank: 27
2008-2009 Payroll Rank: 29 Standings Rank: 30

Erik Christensen This Your NHL Career

2008-12-02T22:25:00.001-05:00

Who Moves The Puck?

2008-12-02T10:58:00.002-05:00

Tom Benjamin had a good post last year correcting a common mis-statement. People often refer to the Red Wings as a "puck-possession" team, but Benjamin argued that good hockey isn't so much "puck possession" but "puck position". Even the Red Wings will dump the puck into the Offensive Zone at times. There are many times in a game where a player will trade possession of the puck in order to move it much farther from his own goal.

OK how does this relate to the Thrashers and their struggles? Well last year the NHL started publishing play by play game sheets that list which players are on the ice at each stoppage of play. Vic Ferrari created a nice little program that scraps the data off so that we can see who comes off the ice after a stoppage and who goes onto the ice. This gives us a picture of "puck possession" on a player by player basis. Great hockey players (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Ovechkin) move the puck down the ice from their Defensize Zone (DZ) to the Offensive Zone (OZ)

Why does this territorial aspect of hockey matter so much? Research by a number of Edmonton bloggers shows that teams that have the puck in the opposition end are more likely to out-shot the opposition and ultimately more likely to win the game. In summary, playing in the opposition end produces a shot advantage and shot advantage produces a goal advantage which produces a standing point advantage. Why do the Thrashers lose so many games? Because they get out chanced. Why do they get out chanced? Because they spend more of the game in their own end. You want to win more hockey games--play in the Offensive Zone.

So who is winning or losing the territorial game for the Atlanta Thrashers? To answer that question I compared the data start-of-shift data to the end-of-shift data. Specifically, I contrast puck location (the ratio of OZ/DZ) at the beginning of shift to the puck location (OZ/DZ) at the end of shifts. This gives us a measure of which players tended to move the puck down the ice from the Defensive Zone to the Offensive Zone.

Forwards Who Move The Puck Into the Opposition End at ES
+26 Reasoner
+26 Armstrong
+9 Kozlov
+7 Christensen
+4 Little
+3 Perrin
+3 Williams
+0 Sterling
-6 Thorburn
-16 White
-17 Boulton
-17 Kovlachuk
-26 Slater

Both the 3rd and 4th line are supposed to be able to play tough minutes against the other club's scoring lines. The 3rd line of Armstrong-Reasoner combo has been outstanding in terms of territory but the 4th line combo of Boulton and Slater are getting demolished. The puck is ending up back in the Thrashers zone a lot.

Among the scoring forwards the Kozlov-Little pairing is moving the puck down the ice, while White has some ugly numbers (which must have come before he was put together with Kozlov and Little).

When Kovalchuk has stepped onto the ice the Thrashers have been in their own end 110 times and in the opposition end 95 times. So at the start of shits he began in the "bad end" 15 times more than in the "good" end of the ice. At the end of Kovalchuk's shifts he was in the offensive zone just 81 times and in his own zone 113 times for a net difference of -32. So he started off in the hole 15 times and ended up in the hole 32 times. In other words on the puck is going the wrong direction. (Remember that puck location is the best predictor Winning!)

Again this is one example of why I don't consider Kovalchuk to be on the same plane as other superstars--his poor defense and carelessness with the puck hurts the team and hurts their chance of winning the game. The best players play in the other end because they make smart passes and put the puck in a position where their team is going to have success.

Here's another data point. Last year Hossa started out in the "bad" end of the ice 280 times more often than the "good" end, but at the end of shifts Hossa was only -72 which means he moved the puck from the Defensive Zone to the Offensive Zone +208. In contrast, Kovalchuk began in the "bad" more a net -28 times but by the end of his shift the puck was in the defensive zone -111 times, which means a net backwards shift of -83. When Hossa was out there the puck typically moved forward and when Kovalchuk was out the puck came backwards.

Defensemen Who Move the Puck to the Opposition End at ES
+10 Bogosian
+6 Schneider
+5 Enstrom
+3 Oystrick
-1 Valabik
-6 Hainsey
-13 Exelby
-19 Havelid

On defense we see that the much maligned Mathieu Schneider has been doing a decent job of getting the puck out of his end compared to other Thrashers defensemen. Exelby and Havelid have struggled. I'm always liked Nic Havelid but his recent struggles on the PK and suggest to me that the Thrashers should not offer him another multi-year deal after this season as he is now closer to age 40 than he is to 30.

Two Interesting Reads

2008-12-01T18:15:00.002-05:00

For the stats inclined here's two interesting posts. James Mirtle over at From The Rink takes a look at how much shot blocking is associated with winning. Not very much as it turns out. Top teams like the Red Wings and Sharks don't block all that many shots while a bottom team like the Islanders has many blocked shots. Much more important than shot blocking is the taking a lot of shots down at the other end of the rink. There's more stuff in Mirtle's post so check it out.

This dovetails quite nicely with a post over at www.mc79hockey.com about "luck" factors in hockey. During the recent Thrashers 5 game win streak I pointed out that the Thrashers were winning because they had an unreal Shooting Percentage (ST%). In his post, Tyler Dellow shows which team's that greatly out perform the league average in ES ST% of ES SV% almost always come back down to earth (back to the league average) in the remainder of the season.

In quantitative circles if a team (or individual) can repeatedly do something above average we call that a "skill" and if they can't repeat it again and again we call it "luck". So how about the Thrashers so far this year? They've been "lucky" so far in their ES ST% but a bit "unlucky" in the ES SV% and when you add the two up they have been slightly "lucky" but fairly close to the NHL average. Going forward regression towards the mean would lead us to expect better goaltending at ES in the future and worse ES ST% the rest of the way.

What these numbers point to are two crucial problems for the Thrashers:
1) Shots matter and the Thrashers get out shot badly most nights. Getting out shot has consequences--yes there is a difference in shot quality--but if you get out shot night after night that's an indication of a fundamental problem.

2) The Thrashers have been out shot at ES so far but some good "luck" has kept the ES Goals For/Goals Against nearly even--it is the PP and PK numbers that have really hurt them so far this year. Given the ES SF/SA problem I expect some decoration in the ES GF/GA ratio which means the PP and PK must get better--or the ES SF/SA has to radically improve.

Special Teams Killing Thrashers Season

2008-11-30T23:34:00.004-05:00

Prior to looking at the numbers I just assumed that the Thrashers were losing the war at both Even Strength (ES) and on Special Teams (ST) situations. But then I went and looked up the numbers and I was VERY surprised to see this pattern emerge.

Even Strength Situations
47 Thrashers Goals
49 Opposition Goals
-2 net difference

In other words at ES the Thrashers are very close to running even with the opposition. Now I'm sure Coach Anderson would respond to this by saying "we have to do better than just run even" and he would be correct, but being even with the opposition means that the Thrashers are going to OT or the SO on a regular basis and they are earning points. The source of the Thrashers problems is next:

Special Teams Situations
18 Thrasher Goals
30 Opposition Goals
-12 net difference

And there it is ladies and gentlemen--the smoking gun, the giant rip in the side of H.M.S. Titanic. You want to know why we're so low in the standing? Look no further than the special teams units. Now the more clever readers might say "But wait maybe the opposition is getting more Power Plays than Atlanta is!" So far the numbers are 93 Thrashers PP chances to 99 for the opposition (that gap of 6 more PP attempts should only results in about 1 extra goal for the oppositions given the NHL average PP% is around 16%).

The Thrashers Power Play has scored 18 PPG which is about average among NHL teams, but the PP unit has also allowed 3 Short Handed Goals which is among the NHL worst (but not as bad as Boston and Rangers 7 SH Goals Allowed!). So net the Atlanta PP unit has produced just +15 goals.

But it is the PK unit that is the bigger problem. I knew that that the PK had a source of grief all season, but I didn't realize it was quite this bad. The Thrashers have allowed 27 PP Goals Against and scored zero short handed Goals For. If the Thrashers had just an average PK unit they would be up close to the line for the playoffs right now.

What's to be done about it? First you have to identify who is struggling. Let's look at the Expected PPGA for each player given their ice time. At forward Slater and Kozlov (limited minutes) have both struggled compared to their team mates. White has done OK in limited PK minutes. Last year Slater struggled mightily on the PK as well--eventually he and Larsen were dropped for other forwards. It might be time to give Todd White more of a role. I suspect Bryan Little could be a good PKer but the coaching staff is probably trying to avoid piling too much on him at this point in his career. (If only we could clone the Kozlov-White-Little combo--they seem to excel on both sides of the puck.)

Forwards
(Positive numbers indicate goals prevented on the PK above team average)
+1.92 Perrin
+1.21 Armstrong
+.063 Reasoner
+0.31 White
-1.41 Slater
-1.82 Kozlov

On Defense Hainsey has been outstanding on the PK while Havelid has been out there for a ton of goals. It is obvious the coaching staff trusts Havelid-Enstrom duo the most of the big defensive situations but perhaps they need to ease upon Havelid's PK minutes a bit. The most surprising thing about this chart are the HUGE splits between D partners. Hainsey has BIG positive numbers and Exelby is basically even--Hainsey appears to be much better when not paired with Exelby. Same with Enstrom and Havelid who usually skate together--Havelid appears to be much worse when he is not out with Enstrom. Havelid plays more PK minutes than any other D man but he's been out there for 16 of the 27 PKGA so far this season!

Defense
(Positive numbers indicate goals prevented on the PK above team average)
+3.57 Hainsey
+0.44 Oystrick
+0.03 Exelby
-0.69 Schneider
-1.42 Enstrom (on for one 5>3 against)
-3.77 Havelid (on for one 5>3 against)

Blue in Atlanta?

2008-11-30T18:25:00.004-05:00

The month of November came to a close with the Atlanta Thrashers losing to the St. Louis Blues 4-2. In some respects the contest mirrored the Thrashers performance; some exciting stretches, but ultimately not enough to win.

The Blues game was generally fun to watch. Kovalchuk has been playing with more intensity since the Columbus match. Exelby has played better the last two games. Pavelec made some fine saves. On the Power Play I was excited to see the Thrashers try putting the Kozlov line out there with Kovalchuk and Hainsey on the points--they were very dangerous and did everything but score a goal. Exelby did another Ron Burgundy Keys to the Game and intermission interview--I appreciate his efforts to entertain the fans. But at the end of the match the Blues skates off winners. Close but no cigar once again for the Thrashers.

I know some fans are in a real panic mode at this point. I'm not one of them. I was angry this summer when the team did not bring in any impact players. I was angry months ago when I realize that we were not likely to see a playoff caliber team take the ice. I was angry when I heard the organization try and sell this as a competitive team. I was angry at the Meet the GM event before the season.

I'm not longer angry. The club is what it is. A collection of interesting young players and some aging veterans. I'm not expecting any playoffs this year. I just want to watch a hungry team that works hard and keeps it close. I want some reason to think that the Thrashers could be a playoff team in 2010.

My prediction for this club was middle to high 80s in terms of standing points and the playoffs usually require mid 90s to qualify. There simply isn't enough talent on this team to make the playoffs. The Thrashers are short a couple of top six forwards and a replacement for Exelby on the blueline.

The bad news is that the Thrashers just missed their big chance to make things interesting in the standings. November was the weakest month of the season. They needed to rack up the points. Instead beatable teams like Columbus, St. Louis, Washington and Nashville were able to come out on top. Now the Thrashers sit just one point out of 30th place at the conclusion of their weakest month on the schedule.

The good news is that the team is getting younger and they are playing the young guys. Some of the younger players have taken BIG steps forward. Bryan Little showed strong defense last year but little offensively flair. This year's Bryan Little is scoring. Last year Nathan Oystrick came to NHL Camp in poor condition and he looked brutal in pre-season action and was sent back to the AHL. This year Oystrick came in pro condition and won the last defense job over Boris Valabik. He bounced back after a costly mistake in his first game has played with increased confidence and lately increased scoring. To be perfectly honest I thought the clock had run out on his NHL potential last year, but he is proving me wrong. Ondrej Pavalec is another guy who looks NHL ready.

Not everything is sunshine and roses on the development front. The returns on the Hossa trade are still very much up in the air. Colby Armstrong has been as advertised with very solid defensive play, hard hitting and some nice goals. On the other hand Erik Christensen is headed closer and closer toward "Bustville" and Angelo Esposito isn't really scoring as much as he should in the Q. Daulton Leveille is still years away from contributing at the NHL level.

I assume the Thrashers will be sellers at the tread deadline time and they must continue to get younger and add to their talent base. They must keep adding players who will core individuals in a playoff team in 2010. 2011 and 2012. Presumably Schneider, Jason Williams, Exelby and perhaps one of the Lehtonen/Pavelec duo could net the Thrashers a good collection of prospects and draft picks which could add to the talent base.

Lastly, I will say I'm very satisfied with Coach Anderson's performance. This team has had a shot to win points in the 3rd period of most of their games. It seems to me that the players play hard for this coach. They've turned in just 4 terrible efforts in 23 games--a vast improvement over last season. I generally like the systems he has used. The forechecking is fun to watch. Personally I favored the coaching candidates who ended up San Jose and Florida. Anderson has surpassed my expectations.

Fixing the Power Play: A Modest Proposal

2008-11-29T00:05:00.003-05:00

After years of having little offensive talent on their blueline the Thrashers have stockpiled skilled defensemen lately. Hainsey was added as a free agent, Schneider was acquired via a trade and Nathan Oystrick was promoted from the AHL. While these new players have improved the breakout, the power play remains a problem so far this season.

Right now the Thrashers are throwing out two units: The Kozlov line and Kovalchuk line> Each go out there and the four offensive defensemen taking a turn. Here's the problem in my view--the Kozlov line is much more effective at generating chances--but the Kovalchuk line almost always gets to start the PP and they often consume 1:30 of the 2:00. That leaves the Kozlov-White-Little combo a measly half minute to try and score.

The alternative would be to load up one super PP unit. The team could play the Kozlov-White-Little group as the forwards and ask them to continue their excellent puck possession work down low. Move Kovalchuk to the point with Schneider. In a perfect world the forwards would buzz around down low and if the PK choose to shadow Kovalchuk closely that opens up space in the slot. On the other hand if the Kozlov line draws three defenders low then you get a wide open point shot on net.

Why Schneider opposite Kovlachuk on the point? Because he shoots when the lane is there. The Thrashers defensemen are a bit too deferential to Kovalchuk and often fail to put pucks on the net when they are left wide open. Forcing the puck to Kovalchuk has been a big problem over the years. Just shoot if you're open! That's what good teams do, they don't rely on just one player to put the puck into the net. Put it on and go for loose pucks. If you consistently put it on net it will create mismatches and easy put back goals but you have to shoot early and often to get those easy put back goals.

The downside of the Super PP Unit Strategy is who is on the 2nd unit? Get creative I say. Send out Williams and Perrin and use Enstrom as a winger on the half boards and put Oystrick and Hainsey on the points. At this point it might time to try something different to shake things up.

Exelby and the Defense at the Quarter Mark

2008-11-26T22:58:00.006-05:00

Last season Exelby really struggled. Because of his poor play, I advocated trading him during training camp. I argued that he was holding the team back with his "soft" turnovers that result from his dumps to center and from blindly rimming the puck around the boards. Both are Exelby trademarks.

When the season began, Exelby was paired with Ron Hainsey. He let Hainsey make almost all the outlet passes and kept his game very simple--even at the expense of making the big hit. The pair was very strong out of the gate while last year's top pairing of Enstrom and Havelid struggled.

In the first ten games the Thrashers were badly out shot when the Swedish duo were on the ice (they also were more likely to face the opposition's top player). The third pairing of Bogosian and Schnedier had the fewest "tough minutes" and the Thrashers generally out shot the opposition at ES when those two were on the ice.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #1-10
+17 Bogosian
+8 Oystrick
+8 Exelby
+1 Schneider
-4 Hainesy
-45 Havelid
-52 Enstrom

Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #1-10
+4 Hainsey
+0 Exelby
-1 Oystrick
-1 Havelid
-2 Bogosian
-3 Enstrom
-9 Schneider

Since the 10th game of the season things have changed dramatically with respect to the Swedish D pairing and the X-Hainsey pairing. Enstrom and Havelid have bounced back in a big way (despite playing a more tough minutes) and they look more like the version we witnessed last season. Meanwhile Exelby has been in a free fall in terms of getting the puck out of his zone and preventing shots against his goaltender. Hainsey has played decent but being paired with Exelby at ES has brought his Corsi (net shots at even strength) rating down as well.

Thrasher Defensemen Corsi for Games #11-21
+12 Schneider
+8 Oystrick
+5 Valabik
+3 Enstrom
+8 Havelid
+23 Hainsey
+45 Exelby

Thrashers Defense Plus/Minus (excluding empty net goals) Games #11-21
+6 Havelid
+3 Enstrom
+2 Schneider
+1 Valabik
+1 Oystrick
-4 Exelby
-6 Hainsey

In the long run I don't think you can give top 4 ES minutes to a player who makes so many "soft" turnovers as Exebly does and expect to win consistently. When your team works hard to gain possession of the puck and then you have a player who just dumps it out to center ice, it prevents any offense from developing and it allows the opposition to regroup and attack. The Thrashers are being out shot in nearly every game and reason for that becasue they are dumping the puck out instead of making breakout passes. At the start of the year, Exelby passed on Hainsey, but lately the opposition players go right at Hainsey who dishes over to a wide open Exelby who then makes a not-so-great play with the puck.

Until Bogosian comes back I'd like to see the Thrashers move Exelby to where he belongs, the 3rd pairing and play Schnedier and Hainsey together and see what happens with those two. Or even put Oystrick with Hainsey and play Schneider and Exelby as the 3rd pairing.

Thrashers Get Goal Light Tan in Toronto

2008-11-25T22:06:00.003-05:00

Most of the time I stick to analysis here at Thrashers Talons, but few things make me happier than winning big versus Toronto and putting one of their players on his backside. After years of watching the Toronto Rodeo run by Darcy Tucker and company it was good to the Thrashers dish out some big hits and walk away with the lion's share of the goals in this contest. Sweet!

There should be some good headlines in the TO papers tomorrow.

UPDATE: here are the links.
"Leafs Thrashers by Thrashers" Toronto Star
"Thrashers Whip Leafs" Toronto Sun

Playing Tough Minutes: Thrasher Forwards

2008-11-24T00:46:00.003-05:00

Today, I'll look at the forwards who play the tough minutes. Basically I define "tough minutes" as Even Strength minutes when a player is match up against the oppositions "best player" (the forward who gets the most ice time from his coach).

Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
37.7% Kovlov -8 Corsi Number
36.9% Christensen -3 Corsi Number
34.8% Little -42 Corsi Number
34.1% Armstrong +46 Corsi Number
33.3% White -34 Corsi Number
32.0% Williams -22 Corsi Number
30.5% Kovalchuk -25 Corsi Number
29.4% Reasoner +26 Corsi Number
28.1% Perrin -5 Corsi Number
26.5% Thorburn -4 Corsi Number
26.0% Slater -24 Corsi Number
22.5% Boulton -36 Corsi Number
14.3% Sterling -6 Corsi Number

Now those season total numbers mix together road and home games. As I mentioned yesterday at home the Thrashers coach has the option to match lines and on the road the opposition coach gets a major advantage in line matching.

At Home--Who does John Anderson Play Against the Opposition's Best Forward?
(Percentage of ES minutes versus Opposition Top Player)
Scoring lines in Red, Checking Lines in Blue
38.2% Armstrong
36.4% Kozlov
35.9% Reasoner
33.9% Christensen
33.8% Williams
32.4% Thorburn
31.2% Perrin
31.2% Little
31.1% White
30.7% Slater
29.4% Kovalchuk
24.3% Boulton
DNP Sterling (zero home games)

It looks like the Thrashers coaching staff considers Colby Armstrong their best defensive forward (and I would agree with that) along with Slava Kozlov and Marty Reasoner.

Which players has the Atlanta coaching staff tried to protect at home? Boulton, Kovalchuk and Slater.

On the Road--Who Do Opposition Coaches Target?
(Percentage of ES minutes versus Opposition Top Player)
Scoring lines in Red, Checking Lines in Blue
41.4% Kozlov
40.5% Christensen
37.3% Little
35.5% White
31.6% Kovalchuk
30.0% Williams
29.8% Armstrong
24.7% Perrin
21.7% Reasoner
21.6% Slater
20.7% Thorburn
20.4% Boulton
14.3% Sterling

On the road it seems pretty clear that most opposition coaches choose to play their best forwards against the Thrashers two scoring lines. The 3rd and 4th lines see very few minutes matched up against the other team's star player. Contrast the color distribution in the home versus road lists. On the road the red players (scoring lines) receive the highest percentage of "tough minutes" while at home the pattern is more mixed.

Who Plays the Hard Minutes? Thrashers Defensemen

2008-11-23T22:56:00.007-05:00

First I must give credit to the Edmonton bloggers who really began doing this sort of analysis a few years ago. They had a lively debate over at Battle of Alberta blog during Dion Phaneuf's rookie season about whether Phaneuf really deserved all that adulation or weather the Flames coaching staff was shielding him from playing against the opposition's best offensive players. In later years Vic Ferrari created this awesome website that spits out the head-to-head match ups for every game on the NHL schedule (I have a link posted on the right hand side of my blog.)

We are nearing the one quarter mark of the sesaon and I thought it would be really interesting to take a look at which Thrashers forwards and defensemen get handed the toughest defensive responsibilities each night. Who shadows Crosby? Who shadows Ovechkin?

I went through all 19 Thrasher games and looked at who played versus the opponent best forward and how many minutes they played. For some teams the "best forward" is obvious (Ovechkin, Staal, Iginla, etc). In other cases it is less clear cut (Tampa and Detroit). To keep this from being to subjective, the "best oppositon forward" was based on which player had the most ice time per game so far this season. In essence I let the opposition coach identify who THEY considered their most valuable player. It is not a perfect method, but I'm happy with the results. Here is the list of "best opposition players" for the Thrashers first 19 games: (Ovechkin, Horton, M. Koivu, Parise, D. Roy, St. Louis, Zetterberg, Savard, Richards, Gomez, Weight, Staal, Crosby, Nash).

Next I calculated the percentage of ES ice time when each Thrashers played head to head against the opposition team's "best forward" so far this season. Without further ado, let's look at who plays the "tough minutes" among the Atlanta defensemen.

Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
34.3% Enstrom -49 Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted While On the Ice)
33.0% Hainsey -27
32.5% Havelid -37
32.3% Exelby -37
30.9% Bogosian +17
28.4% Schnedier +13
22.9% Oystrick +16
20.7% Valabik +5

Enstrom is getting the highest percentage of "tough minutes" so far this season, but really the quartet of Enstrom-Havelid-Hainsey-Exelby are not that far apart. Which players are being protected by the coaching staff and playing fewer minutes versus the opposition's top forwards? Valabik and Oystrick by a large measure, and Schneider and Bogosian to a lesser degree. Honestly I was a little surprised to see Schneider that low on the list, but most nights this season he has been paired with a NHL rookie and it makes a certain amount of sense to protect both the NHL rookie and he isn't the fastest guy anymore.

Now when thinking about match ups it is important to keep in mind that the home coach gets the last change and therefore can more easily engage in line matching. On the other hand, the road coach must concede a certain amount of control over match ups. So what happens if we look at home and road splits?

Distribution of Home "Tough Minutes"
Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
41.1% Bogosian 4 GP +12 Corsi
38.1% Enstrom 10 GP -30 Corsi
35.7% Havelid 10 GP -19 Corsi
31.0% Hainsey 10 GP -13 Corsi
30.6% Exelby 10 GP -9 Corsi
29.4% Schneider 8 GP +7 Corsi
22.4% Valabik 2 GP -3 Corsi
20.5% Oystrick 6 GP +9 Corsi

When at home the Thrashers have chosen to match the Swedish defensemen (Enstrom and Bogosian) against the opposition's top forward. Enstrom and Havelid have the worst Corsi number in Thrashers home games among defensemen. In the middle, veterans Hainsey, Exelby and Schneider each are getting about the same percentage of top player minutes. At the other end we find two NHL rookies (Oystrick and Valabik) who have been sheltered by the coaching staff when they have the last change. (For both Bogosian and Valabik the sample size is very small so don't get overly excited about those numbers.)

Distribution of Road "Tough Minutes"
Percentage of Even Strength Minutes Versus the Opponent's Best Forward
35.1% Hainsey 9 GP -14 Corsi
34.3% Exelby 9 GP -28 Corsi
30.3% Enstrom 9 GP -19 Corsi
29.3% Havelid 9 GP -18 Corsi
26.7% Schneider 6 GP +6 Corsi
25.5% Oystrick 5 GP +7 Corsi
23.1% Bogosian 4 GP +5 Corsi
19.9% Valabik 3 GP -3 Corsi

On the road, where the opposition coach can pick his matchups they have chosen to target the Exelby-Hainsey pairing and try to get their top player away from the Swedish duo. While Enstrom has struggled at home in the Corsi department, Exelby is getting owned on the road so far this season when opposition coaches have the last change. Surprisingly they have not been targeting the Oystrick-Bogosian-Valabik rookie trio.

Conclusion
Both the Thrashers coaches and the opposition coaches consider the Enstrom-Havelid pairing to be the Thrashers top defensive pairing. The Hainsey-Exelby pairing is targeted by coaches when the Thrashers go on the road. The rookies and Schneider have no really be targeted when out on the road. Here's one thought, one of these road game put Schneider and Hainsey together on a road game and make it more difficult for the opposition to target Exelby by giving him 3rd pairing minutes.

Calling Out Ilya Kovalchuk

2008-11-22T22:33:00.005-05:00

If you want people to treat you like a superstar, you have to play like a superstar.

The true superstars of the game lead their teams in scoring, make good plays on the defensive side of the puck, are locker room leaders and handle a large share of the media load in their hometowns and on the road. As a consequence of doing these things, superstars get paid like superstars. The elite of the NHL start with players like Alexander Ovechkin, Nick Lidstrom, Sidney Crosby--they carry the load for their clubs.

So far this season, Ilya Kovalchuk does not fit the superstar label. He is not putting up the big points, he is not scoring the goals -- heck, he's not even bothering to take the shots that would produce the points.

Ilya Kovalchuk is playing his usual so-so defense (which is an improvement from the execrable defense of his early years). He does VERY little in the way of promoting the Atlanta Thrashers franchise compared to superstars like Ovechkin, Crosby or Lidstrom. I'm tuned in and I rarely hear him talk on the radio, television or in print. When's the last time he spoke on NHL Live? His best interviews appear in the Russia press--which is read by people who seldom buy Thrasher tickets. We only learn what he is really thinking when a blogger like PuckDaddy posts a translation.

Ilya Kovalchuk has the talent to be a superstar. He has the speed, he still has that ungodly release. He will certainly expect to be paid like a superstar when he negotiates his next contract. But if he wants to be treated like a superstar, he should play like one.

It is time for him to show up. The season started 19 games ago. I don't want to hear any baloney about Kovalchuk not having quality linemates. Last season, Kovalchuk was centered much of the year by Todd White (who has never even been considered All-Star Game material), and a 40-year-old right winger who was dropped to waivers by his previous club (Mark Recchi). Despite these pedestrian linemates, Kovalchuk single-handedly carried the Atlanta offense at times even as other lines and other players (Marian Hossa) and the entire defensive corps disappointed fans. When Ilya Kovalchuk feels like driving to the net and shooting, he will score regardless of who is on his line.

So how about it, Kovalchuk? So far this season, the goaltending has kept the Thrashers in every every game on the schedule. This is a team that desperately needs your offensive skills. If you shot the puck like you did last year, this team probably would be sitting on the edge of the playoffs. The 2nd line of Kozlov-White-Little has really carried the scoring load at even strength (see table below). The Kovalchuk line has been a terrific let down so far, barely outscoring the 3rd line and just slightly ahead of the 4th line.

ES Goals by Line
7 = Kovalchuk 4-Williams 2-Christensen 1
18= Kozlov 8-White 8-Little 2
6 = Thorburn 0-Reasoner 4-Armstrong 2
4 = Boulton 0-Slater 2-Perrin 1

The most bothersome aspect of Kovalchuk's play is he unwillingness to shoot the puck when he has possession of it in the offensive zone (see table below). He keeps trying to be Sidney Crosby and set other people up. You're Ilya Kovalchuk, goalies have nightmares about your shot! Stop passing and let it rip!!!

Kovalchuk Shots per Game by Season
05-06 4.14
06-07 4.10
07-08 3.58
08-09 2.68

Will Kovalchuk get on board? Does he want to be included when people list the NHL's truly great players? If so, he needs to bring that shot of his every night. He needs to play with passion and he needs to be the kind of player we've seen him be before. If he doesn't want to be here, he should tell management that. If he only wants to play hard part of the time or if he only plays defense when the coach gets after him or if he ducks out on the media, well then he should only expect to be paid like a one-way scorer in his next contract -- because the elite players bring all that to the table. That's what separates the stars from the superstars. Which will it be Ilya?

Pens Top Thrashers

2008-11-20T22:42:00.002-05:00

I missed my first home game of the year last night as the Thrashers took on Pittsburgh. I've been battling a cold for two days and it was much worse on Thursday. So I'll keep this one short.

The team worked hard again, they were out-shot again (22-16 at Even Strength) and they were both a bit unlucky and lucky. They were lucky on the first two goals when a rebound came right to open Kozlov (Darren Eliot referenced the "lucky or good" debate by saying that they were in fact fortunate but credited them with doing the hard work to take advantage of a good bounce). Jim Slater threw a blind shot at the net that caught Sabourin with his five hole open.

They were unlucky when Satan got away with interference on Exelby that led to an odd man break against and a subsequent Penguins Power Play as Thorburn made a diving play to make sure that Pittsburgh did not score. On that power play, the Penguins worked hard but also benefited from a friendly off-the-stick-shaft deflection that won the game.

Before next fall the Thrasher must choose who their number one goalie will be for the future. My guess is that the choice will be Pavelec because he is younger, cheaper and may have more long run potential. Exhibit #1 in the case to prove Ondrej Pavelec is capable of being an NHL starter can been found by watching the Thrashers kill off a Penguins 5 on 3 power play. Pavelec was spectacular.

I hate to see anyone get injured, and I especially hate seeing possible concussions such as the one Todd White appeared to have suffered in the game. If there is a silver lining to White being out for a period of time, it would be a renewed opportunity for Eric Perrin to show Coach John Anderson his offensive skills playing on the Little-Kozlov combo. Assuming White is out for a while, someon will be called up from Chicago. Will it be a skill guy like Sterling or a checker such as LaValle?

I wasn't in the building because of the aforementioned cold, but it looked embarrassingly empty on television. The first five rows were nearly bereft of fans the sections to the right and left of center ice. The tickets distributed number was under 14,000 which usually means the turnstile attendance was several thousand below (The NHL "attendance" number is not the number of bodies that come into the doors but rather the number of tickets distributed). I have to say I'm surprised that Crosby and Malkin didn't pull in more of the casual fans. The sad thing is that so many people bought season tickets last year and watched a wretched hockey club most nights and this year the team works hard and is entertaining but nobody is there.

Hockey News Makes a Mess Out of Stats

2008-11-18T13:41:00.002-05:00

In case you haven't heard the Hockey News has been tracking their own version of "clutch scoring" this season. If this were evidence that the paper is embracing advanced hockey stats I would be thrilled. But the truth is all they have done is slap something together that any hockey loving middle school student could create.

A new wrinkle on Campbellnomics this season is the comeback goal. A comeback goal can only be scored when a team is trailing by two or more goals and that goal has a direct effect on his team getting back into the game. The goal must be one of goals scored in succession that result in the game later being tied.

So if the Thrashers are down by two goals and Bryan Little making an amazing play and scores to cut the lead down to just one goal--but the Thrashers fail to tie the game--that goal is not a "clutch goal" because the other 17 skaters failed to tie the game up. Does that make any sense? On other other hand if Boris Valabik throws a puck at the net and it deflects off someone's stick and then redirects off another players butt and into the net--and cuts the opposition lead to one and the Thrashers go on to tie the game--well that counts as a "clutch goal"---greeeeat! That's just sheer idiocy.

A player can't possibly know how a game will turn out--all they can do is play their best given the situation. If they score a goal that helps their team no matter what the score is. To assign special emphasis to goals based on how the game turned out makes little sense.

If you want to make a case that scoring the sixth goal in a 6-1 is less meaningful than I would agree with that. Some goals are more "high leverage" than other goals. You could use a "marginal goals framework" in which you look at the historical average and given credit to players who score in high leverage situations.

For example, in a tie game the next goal will always be meaningful and the closer that tie game is to the end of regulation, the more meaningful that goal will be. A goal that gives a team a 4 goal lead is usually less meaningful, but there is a chance the opposition will score 3 more and the goal that produced a 4 goal lead will suddenly become the gain winner. That goal that gives your team a big lead is unlikely to end up as the game winner, but you never know.

If the Hockey News wants to do "clutch scoring" correctly they ought to assign a value for every goal scored based on the game score and the time at which that goal is scored. Some goals have a HUGE effect on the probability that your team will win the game and other goals not so much. The Hockey News ought to ask one of the quantitative bloggers out there to help them produce a more accurate measure of "high leverage" goal scoring events than mish-mash approach they are taking with their amateurish attempt.

Anderson Hire Looking Good

2008-11-17T16:31:00.002-05:00

The Thrashers lost to the Flyers last night. If they had beaten Philly that would have nudged me more towards thinking they might find a way to sneak into the post-season. But they didn't so my expectations remain at "close by no cigar" for this years.

In some ways the Flyers game was something of a miniature of the season. The team played one bad period but otherwise they were fairly competitive. Ultimately they came up one goal short in the end. That pretty much describes the year so far--good effort, fairly competitive, but just not quite enough to put them over the top.

Coach Anderson is certainly getting more out of this lineup that any other coach in Thrasher history. His players pressure the puck and are allowed to be creative. Their style is evolving into an exciting brand of hockey. Sure, they still make mistakes and they've had a couple of rough periods here and there, but they play much more like a team than past Thrashers clubs. They play with much more energy and fluidity than past Thrashers teams. The old Thrashers seemed to labor just to get the puck up the ice and and the offensive zone, while the current club keeps getting better at making quick outlet passes and explosive breakouts that put pressure on the opposition defense.

One thing that seems notable about Coach Anderson's team so far is just how stable the lines have been. Hartley constantly shuffled his centers around. As a new head coach I would not have been surprised to see Anderson try a bunch of combinations early in the season to see who worked best with whom. However, Anderson has favored consistency over experimentation which allows linemates to work on their chemistry. My guess is this goes back to his days as a player--he probably believes consistent lines are more productive than shuffling players around.

Personally, I'd wish he had given Brett Sterling more of a shot and Eric Perrin more ice time. I also probably wouldn't have been as patient with Erik Christensen or Jason Williams. To his credit he got Williams rolling, although Christensen has remained fairly cold--only getting his first goal after 20% of the season had passed. But I will say this about Christensen--if the Thrashers are going to come up short of the playoffs--they need to discover whether Erik is a top six NHL player. They have to play him enough to find out if he is just a slow starter or if he one of those talented teases that never quite deliver on their promise.

The Thrashers still have holes (another top six forward would really help) and they still have problem areas (penalty kill) but Anderson is getting quality play out of this team and I'm enjoying watching them play. It is really unfortunate that the past season turned off so many fans because these is the kind of fun hockey that hockey newbies could get turned on if they were watching it.

Playoffs: What it would take

2008-11-15T13:48:00.003-05:00

Could this team make it to the post-season? What would it take to get there?

The fundamental problem for the Thrashers is that they continue to get out-shot nearly every game. Yes, you can win while being out shot--the Thrashers did it last night versus the Hurricanes--but to win while being out shot you must:

Finish scoring chances at a higher rate than other clubs.
Prevent goals on shots at a higher rate than other clubs.
Both of the above.

Right now the Thrashers are being out shot 454 to 533 so far this season. Should we expect this to improve dramatically? If you look at the Shots For and Shots Against for the first 16 games that is a strong pattern.
31-43 = -12
33-39 = -6
26-26 = 0
25-35 = -10
37-30 = +7
33-38 = -5
33-46 = -13
32-33 = -1
24-31 = -7
29-33 = -4
20-32 = -12
31-21 = +10
27-27 = 0
26-32 = -6
22-37 = -15
25-29 = -4

The Thrashers have been out shot if 12 of the 16, they tied in two game and won the shot battle just twice. I have no strong reason to think that will suddenly change. So if we assume the team will continue to be out shot to the tune of 28-33 each night--what would it take for them to stay in the playoff race?

Let's assume the Thrashers are able to keep their current Shot Percentage all season 10.3% (Which ranks 8th in the NHL) what sort of goal tending performance would it take? Roughly a 91.0% Save Percentage would keep them in the playoff race. A 91.0% Save Percentage is basically league average (14th). So there's your answer--average goal tending plus above average shooting (8th) would give them a shot at the post-season.
Right now though the Thrashers have above average shooting (8th) and below average puck stopping (20th).

Other scenarios that would keep this team in contention while being outshot include the following.

Amazing shooting 12.5% (1st) and poor SV% .893%(20th)
Great shooting 10.3% (8th) and average SV% .910% (14th)
Average shooting 9.9% (15th) and amazing SV% .916% (9th)
A little above average in both, ST% 10.085 (12th) and SV% .915 (11th)

Conclusion: If you're going to be out shot most nights you have to extraordinary at something to get into the post-season.

Bring Down the White Whale

2008-11-15T01:51:00.009-05:00

I have three thoughts after watching the Thrashers win yet again and run their streak to five games.

1) This team deserves your attention Atlanta hockey fans. They work hard, they hustle and they support one another out there on the ice. Last year's squad was shockingly unprofessional in the way they would just fold up like a cheap tent in the 2nd game of back-to-back nights. This club has been competitive in 14 of their first 16 games and have looked very good on the 2nd night of back to back games.

2) The second thought is keep your expectations in check. The Thrashers are in the midst of the easiest month on their schedule--they should be winning more games than they are losing. In fact, it is crucial that they keep rolling through this month of November collecting as many standings points as they possibly can--rough waters lay ahead in December and January! Once the team gets past the two Pennsylvania franchises another stretch of beatable teams is on the docket: Columbus, Toronto, Washington, Nashville and St. Louis

3) The Thrashers must finally slay the dragon. The Flyers have haunted this franchise from day one. It is time for them to break whatever spell the Flyers have over this team and end the string of losses. Time to bring down the Moby Dick of this franchise--the Philadelphia Flyers.

Finally, I'll conclude by saying that in my gut I still don't think this team has sufficient talent to qualify for the playoffs. But with a lot of hard work and a measure of good luck they just might be able to squeak in or at least make things interesting in the spring. Making a serious run at the post-season and playing a smart and entertaining version of NHL hockey is precisely the sort of thing that will help this franchise next summer when they are trying to attract free agents (or re-sign some of their own).

Updated Eastern Standings (adjusted for games played)
+7 NYR
+7 BOS
+6 MON
+6 WSH
+6 PIT
+5 BUF
+1 CAR
+1 TOR
--------------- PLAYOFFS
+0 NJD
+0 ATL
-1 PHI
-2 OTT
-2 TBL
-3 FLA
-4 NYI

"That's Hot!"

2008-11-13T00:44:00.003-05:00

In my last post, I argued that the Thrashers have been both good and a bit lucky during their recent 4 game win streak.

The team isn't really generating more shots, they are simply cashing in a higher percentage of the shots they have been creating.

So far the Thrashers have played 15 games, so let's do a little comparison of their performance in the three five game segments.

Shots For-Shots Against
1st 5 games: 152-173 = -21
2nd 5 games: 151-181 = -30
3rd 5 games: 126-149 = -23

The team has consistently been outshot in each five game segment and their offensive shots per game actually fell during this most recent set of five games. What has really improved is their Shot Percentage.

Shot Percentage
1st 5 games: 8.6%
2nd 5 games: 7.3%
3rd 5 games: 15.9%

That 15.9% is roughly double of what they were doing before. Is that sustainable over the long haul? Well let's look at the other NHL team's shot percentage so far this season and see where the Thrashers three segments fall in this distribution.

2008-09 Team Shot Percentage
15.9% ATL 3rd 5 game segment of the season.
12.7% PHI
12.1% CHI
12.0% STL
11.4% VAN
11.1% MON
10.9% NSH
10.5% DAL
10.2% PIT
10.0% LAK
10.0% CGY
09.9% CBJ
09.9% BUF
09.9% ANA
09.5% CAR
09.5% COL
09.5% MIN
09.5% DET
09.5% BOS
09.3% EDM
09.3% WSH
09.2% OTT
08.8% SJS
08.7% TOR
08.6% PHX
08.6% NYI
08.6% ATL First 5 game segment of the season
08.1% FLA
08.0% NYR
07.8% NJD
07.3% TBL
07.3% ATL 2nd 5 game segment of the season

Just in case it's not obvious, the team started off ice cold and now they are red hot. Don't count on them finishing the season #1 in shooting percentage. In their last five games they've been converting chances at a higher clip than even the super red hot San Jose Sharks have been doing all season.

The bad news is that they will cool off again, but the good news is that they have been winning lately despite a less than terrific SV%. Consider the following:

NHL Save Percentage Ranking 2008-09
.932 TBL
.931 BOS
.930 MIN
.925 BUF
.922 NYR
.921 PIT
.920 PHX
.919 OTT
.919 ATL 1st 5 game segment of the season.
.917 CHI
.916 MON
.914 VAN
.914 FLA
.911 NJD
.908 CAR
.906 EDM
.905 SJS
.904 ANA
.900 WSH
.894 DET
.893 NYI
.889 LAK
.888 CGY
.887 STL
.886 CBJ
.881 PHI
.879 ATL 3rd 5 game segment of the season
.877 COL
.876 TOR
.873 ATL 2nd 5 game segment of the season
.871 NSH
.858 DAL

In the first 5 games the Thrashers couldn't buy a goal, but red hot goal tending helped them earn points in a number of games. In the 2nd 5 games they struggled with both scoring and preventing goals. In the last 5 they have been hot in converting chances but below average in preventing goals. As their offense cools down they need to either generate more shots or do better at stopping the opposition from scoring.

What Explains the Hot Streak?

2008-11-09T16:42:00.007-05:00

The Thrashers have won four in a row now, so I took the time to update the historical rankings (see below) to figure out what had changed. Fundamentally, not all that much other they are getting some good luck.

Earlier they were generating chances but not converting those shots into goals. In just five games the Thrashers have jumped from 27th in Shot Percentage to 8th. The old adage is "better to be lucky than good" which describes this hot streak.

Quite a few goals have been scored lately due to fortunate rebounds. Both Bryan Little goals against Buffalo happened because of good bounces. The same holds true for several of the goals scored in the Carolina game where the puck came right to a wide open Thrashers.

Now do the Thrasher players deserve credit for being in the right place at the right time? Absolutely. Are they likely to keep have pucks bouncing to open guys? Probably not.

If you look at more fundamental measures, the team continues rank low in Shot Differential and Goal Differential. Goal Differential usually predicts a team's place in the standings with about 95% accuracy by the end of the season.

I'll give full credit to Coach Anderson who has the guys playing with passion and good intensity most nights. I certainly have enjoyed watching the wins. But this is the easy month on the Thrashers schedule. They really need to push themselves up into a playoff spot before they exit November and encounter tougher clubs in December and January.

NHL Standings Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 23
2003-2004 21
2005-2006 20
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 29, now 23rd

Player Salary Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 26
2005-2006 02
2006-2007 17
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 29 (unchanged)

Average Attendance Rank
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 23
2006-2007 21
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 28 (unchanged)

Offense (Goals For Average)
2000-2001 27
2001-2002 26
2002-2003 10
2003-2004 13
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 was 24th, now 14th

Defense (Goals Against Average)
2000-2001 29
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 25
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 29th, now 29th

Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 27
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 16
2006-2007 16
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 30th, now 27th

Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 20
2002-2003 26
2003-2004 24
2005-2006 13
2006-2007 19
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 was 27th, still 27th

Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)
2000-2001 24
2001-2002 27
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 27
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 13
2007-2008 19
2008-2009 was 20th, now 21st

Finishing (Shot Percentage)
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 17
2002-2003 07
2003-2004 05
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 11
2008-2009 was 27th, now 8th

Power Play Percentage
2000-2001 25
2001-2002 29
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 23
2005-2006 04
2006-2007 23
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 was 19th, now 14th

Penalty Kill Percentage
2000-2001 30
2001-2002 25
2002-2003 24
2003-2004 08
2005-2006 27
2006-2007 26
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 was 26th, now 29th

Earning Power Play Opportunities
2000-2001 07
2001-2002 24
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 02
2005-2006 01
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 28
2008-2009 was 9th, now 20th

Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 21
2002-2003 17
2003-2004 28
2005-2006 28
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 15
2008-2009 was 19 now 17th

Thrashers Players After 15 Games

2008-11-09T16:13:00.009-05:00

Who is playing well at Even Strength?
Are the Thrashers out-shooting or being outshot when this player is on the ice? (Corsi Numbers)
Team
-27 Atlanta Thrashers
Defense
+17 Bogosian
+17 Oystrick
+13 Schneider
+6 Valabik
-15 Hainsey
-19 Exelby
-36 Havelid
-42 Enstrom
Comments: The Enstrom-Havelid duo were badly outshot in the first 10 games but they have rebounded in the last 5 games. Exelby-Hainsey were great their 1st 5 games but have been on the minus side the last 10 games.

Forwards
+51 Armstrong
+30 Reasoner
+5 Christensen
-1 Perrin
-2 Thorburn
-2 Kozlov
-6 Sterling
-10 Williams
-19 Kovlachuk
-22 Slater
-27 Boulton
-35 White
-38 Little
Comments: The Little-White-Kozlov line has been scoring but they are giving up a lot of chances against so far this season. The 3rd line has done exactly what you want them to do--play in the other team's end and put pucks on the opposition net. Armstrong is simply amazing--whenever he is on the ice the Thrashers outplay the opposition.

Who is playing well on the Power Play? (minimum 5 minutes total)
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PP Goals For for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PP has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+1.76 Jason Williams
+1.43 Nathan Oystrick
+1.36 Todd White
+1.16 Slava Kozlov
+0.77 Colby Armstrong
+0.71 Nic Havelid
-0.18 Ilya Kovalchuk
-0.33 Tobias Enstrom
-0.57 Erik Christensen
-1.57 Bryan Little
-2.00 Ron Hainsey
-2.39 Mathieu Schneider

Who is playing well on the Penalty Kill?
What I've done is calculate the Expected Team PK Goals Against for each player and then compared it to their actual number. A plus number means that the Thrashers PK has been more effective when that player is out on the ice in that situation.
+3.12 Eric Perrin
+2.50 Ron Hainsey
+1.03* Marty Reasoner
+0.55 Garnet Exelby
+0.26 Nathan Oystrick
+0.23 Todd White
-0.00 Colby Armstrong
-0.12 Erik Christensen
-0.88 Boris Valabik
-1.13 Jim Slater
-1.24 Mathieu Schneider
-1.38* Tobias Enstrom
-2.01* Nic Havelid
-2.19 Slava Kozlov
* on for a 5>3 PK goal against.

Even Strength: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential 324-358 = -34
Power Play: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
99-125 = -26
Short Handed: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
6- 20 = -14
Total: Shots For - Shots Against = Shot Differential
429-503 = -74

Lehtonen Trade Rumors

2008-11-09T10:35:00.002-05:00

Far be it from me to endorse either Al Strachan or Bruce Garroich, but this is the most logical Thrasher trade rumor to come down the pike in a while. In fact, I wrote something myself about the possibility of Lehtonen being moved last summer.

Consider the following:

Atlanta has two goalies who could be #1.
Atlanta has a backup (#2) that has a two year contract (if they intended to carry both Lehtonen and Pavelec no need to re-sign Hedberg last summer).
Atlanta has a top prospect who refused to report to the AHL, but then did report after talking to the GM.
Atlanta still need more talent on their roster. Having two #1 goalies is a luxury they can't afford.

Ergo, it is virtually certain one of these two goalies will no longer be a Thrasher in October of 2009. At some point, either Lehtonen or Pavelec will be moved. The only question is WHEN and for WHOM.

Let's consider the WHEN question more carefully.

Make a trade right now--At the moment the Thrashers are on a three game win streak-- thus they don't NEED to make a deal. It is often said that dealing from a position of strength is better than dealing from a position of desperation. There are some other clubs like Edmonton and New Jersey that are in a position of need. Perhaps one of them will make a terrific offer--if not the Thrashers can afford to wait. In the case of New Jersey I find it hard to believe they would make a terrific offer because Brodeur will come back and he will expect to play almost every single game. You're not going to make a huge trade just for a temporary starting goalie.

Teams like Edmonton and Ottawa and even Detroit have a long term need in goal and are more logical trading partners. But Ottawa and Detroit are not in a desperate position right now. The biggest advantage of making a deal now is that a club like Edmonton or Ottawa might think that acquiring Lehtonen could be the difference between missing and making the playoffs and therefore they pay a higher price than they would during the summer time.

Make a deal at that trade deadline--The biggest problem of waiting until the trade deadline is that you only get maximum value if one of the playoff teams are really hurting for a starter. Only 16 qualify for the playoffs--most of these teams will have a #1 guy and not want to make a change late in the season. Also the Thrashers would be looking for a young player (19-25) who could contribute immediately at the NHL level. Most NHL teams are NOT going to want to give up a roster player right before they head into the post-season. Contending teams are more likely to offer draft picks and very young prospects in exchange. The only way a playoff bound team makes a deal with Atlanta is if their #1 is done for the rest of the year and they have an abundance of prospects.

Make a Deal in the Summer of 2009--This still strikes me as the likely time for a goalie trade. A team like Detroit will shopping Jiri Hudler and Brett Lebda during the summer and they will be looking for Chris Osgood's successor. Also a new GM in another city might be looking to make a big splash by acquiring a goalie-of-the-future type move for his club. The biggest downside to waiting until summer is that you loose some leverage in trade talks because another team can say "your price is too high, we'll just go sign veteran goalie so and so to fill our net for the upcoming season."

As for the WHOM part, I expect it is Lehtonen that would be moved. Why? Lehtonen is playing for a big contract, he has a history of not being consistently healthy and he is older. Both he and Pavelec look like #1 guys but Pavelec will be cheaper in the near term until he demonstrates his ability at the NHL level.

The Thrashers must contend on a budget which means loading up on talented players who are still relatively inexpensive (under 25). They need to win to draw fans which will then produce the revenue to re-sign some of the key players (the Buffalo model).

Buffalo Falls Again to Resilient Thrashers Club

2008-11-08T11:09:00.003-05:00

Three wins in a row and three solid performances in back-to-back games. I don't what John Anderson is doing differently than Bob Hartley and Don Waddell but he is getting a much stronger effort in these back to back games nights.

The Little-White-Kozzie line is red hot. They were a bit lucky on both Bryan Little goals but earlier this season they were working hard and not getting rewarded. Last night they were rewarded with a few fortunate bounces after creating offensive pressure. You can see their confidence is sky high right now.

Last Three Games: Bryan Little 3 Goals, 3 Assists = 6 points
Last seven Games: Slava Kozlov 6 Goals, 5 Assists = 11 points

Will opposition teams put their best checkers against the Kozlov line?
Will that open up the door for the Kovalchuk line perhaps?

Two rally wins in a row. Ideally you'd never like to fall behind in a game. Hedberg had a rough 2nd period and then made some quality stops in the 3rd. He's a great person but not necessarily the best backup goalie in the NHL--that has been noticeable his last two games.

Special Teams: Both clubs PP units went 2 for 3 which pushes the Thrashers PP% rankings up to 12th in the NHL but the Atlanta PK has now fallen to dead last (30th).

I'm not going to post the team Corsi numbers today, the main story was that the Exelby-Hainsey pairing had a rough time in terms of being outshot badly at ES. Hainsey bailed out Exelby a few times and played a huge 28 minutes. I listened to part of this game on the radio while driving to play my own hockey game, but Valabik seems to have played better.

Real East Standing
+7 NYR
+7 MON
+6 BUF
+4 CAR
+4 MON
+4 NJD
+2 WSH
+0 OTT
+0 TOR
+0 TBL
-1 PHI
-2 ATL
-3 FLA
-4 NYI

Thrashers Rebound with Two Wins.

2008-11-06T22:42:00.006-05:00

The Thrashers have put together their first consecutive wins of the season. That streak will immediately be tested by a tough Buffalo team on Friday night.

What does this mean? On the one hand the Thrashers have righted the ship after two ugly losses in three games. The effort and intensity returned and they again looked like a competitive and entertaining team. On the other hand the Thrashers have only done what they must do. They beat two of the weaker teams in the Eastern Conference.

The truth of the matter is that November is the easiest month on the schedule and if the Thrashers are going to make this an interesting season the absolutely must exist November with a winning record. If you divide the NHL into upper, middle and lower thirds (as I do) the Thrashers face these bottom rung clubs this month: FLA, NYI, CBJ, TOR, STL and these middle of the pack clubs: CAR, CAR, PHI, NSH and these upper tier teams: NJD, BUF, PIT, WSH.

Atlanta probably needs to take 4 out of 5 against the bottom clubs to make this a successful month. The next five games are HUGE. Compared to other months November is not as difficult but the next five games versus BUF, CAR, CAR, PHI and PIT will be a crucial test. The Thrashers need to find a way to get 6 points out of a possible 10 which would then put them in a good position to pick up even more points against the weaker teams in the later part of the month.

Here are the current Eastern Standings adjusted for games played.
(Points above or below games played)
+7 NYR
+7 MON
+6 BUF
+4 BOS
+3 CAR
+3 PIT
+3 NJD
+2 WAS
-----------PLAYOFFS
+1 OTT
+0 TOR
+0 TBL
-1 PHI
-2 FLA
-3 ATL
-4 NYI

Bruce Levenson: "It's way too early. I think we're three games out of first place,"
Actually we would need to win six more in a row to get into first place in the division.

Who is doing what? The last two home game I got out my handy yellow note pad and tried to track every single time the Thrashers possessed the puck. I noted who made bad passes, who failed to catch good passes, who cleared the defensive zone, who failed to clear the defensive zone, who attempted shots and so forth. I tried this a few times last season.

It requires a lot of concentration to track every pass made during a game--but it also helps you get away from personal biases. Like anyone, I have players that I like and those I don't like so much. But when I track passes I just write down what happens regardless of my feeling for the players.

So what did this exercise teach me?
Exelby is making many fewer turnovers than last season. When I tracked puck possession last year I was just stunned by how often Exelby would dump the puck into the neutral zone or fail to make an outlet pass. The good news is that he has largely stopped dumping the puck out to center--because now he passes almost exclusively to Hainsey who then makes a good outlet pass. I'd say in the Florida game 85% of Exelby's passes went to his D partner.

In the Florida game the Williams-Christensen combo were just brutal in the first period. When those two were out on the ice, the puck stayed in the Atlanta zone most of the time and when they did clear their defensive zone they quickly lost possession of the puck. Their puck possession improved in the 2nd and 3rd periods.

Jason Williams in particular was pretty much a black hole in the Florida game, he either couldn't catch a pass, couldn't make a pass, lost control of the puck or was checked off the puck. It was a pretty amazing display of badness out there. Fortunately he was significantly better in the Islanders game, but he still losses possession of the puck far too often for a guy who is supposed to have top six forward talent.

Kovalchuk is also a big source of turnovers. He tries some high risk passes and he also just makes some dumb decisions out there at times--he tries drop passes when everyone on the ice is looking for him to shoot the puck.

The Kozlov-White-Little consistently makes good passes and good decisions out there. They pass efficiently and they stay in their lanes opening up the offense. When they do dump the puck into the offensive zone they are able to jump into the corners and win the puck back much of the time. The question in my mind as I was tracking puck possession was this: Why is the Kovalchuk line getting 80% of the PP time when the Kozlov-While-Little line is playing some great hockey right now? They ought to split those power plays 50-50 and send out the 2nd line halfway through.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that Colby Armstrong may be the most underrated player on the Atlanta Thrashers. When he is on the ice good things happen--regardless of who he plays with. Last time I ran the numbers he was the most effective PK forward. At ES his season total Corsi number blows away any other forward on the team.

Schneider Out and Valabik In
So Schneider get dinged up in practice and Valabik was called for tonight's game. I'm not sure when Valabik arrived but he looked brutal. In played just 9 of the 60 minutes of the game and was on for 2 goals against. He was just standing there by the net doing his best Andy-Sutton-as-a-pillar-of-salt impression on the first two Islander goals and then he took a unnecessary penalty that gave the Islanders another opportunity to add to their total. The Thrashers got back into the game in the 3rd and Boris played just 2 minutes in the final 20.

I'm hoping he was just nervous or arrived at the last minute and will look better the next game (Schneider is expected to miss three according to the team). As I recall he looked pretty rough in his first NHL game last year and then seemed to settle down and relax after that. I do worry about how he will look matched up against Buffalo's speedy forwards--if he just stands around it could be quite ugly.

Your Corsi Numbers for the Florida Game
(Net shots fired while at even strength while that particular players was out on the ice--were you out chancing the opposition or being out chanced?)

Team
+9 Pavelec - The Thrashers were really out played the Islanders at even strength last night.

Defense
Havelid +4
Enstrom +9

Hainsey +8
Exelby -3

Oystrick -2
Valabik +1

Forwards
Kozlov -1
White -1
Little 0

Kovalchuk +4
Christensen +1
Williams +2

Armstrong +8
Reasoner +6
Thorburn +6

Perrin +1
Slater +2
Boulton 0

Election Day!

2008-11-04T09:58:00.002-05:00

I never talk politics here on the blog. My day job revolves around US Politics and this blog is about hockey and I usually keep the two things separate. But today is election day and so I will make an exception.

My profession opinion as a political observer is that Democrats are poised for major wins on all fronts. Just as the 1980 and 1994 elections were very good for Republicans, this election will be good for many Democratic candidates.

Specifically I expect Obama to win the popular vote by almost 10 points 54%-46% and the Electoral College 378-157. I expect the Democrats to gain +8 US Senate seats and +29 US House Seats.

Why such big gains?
1) Many polls are failing to survey cell phone only households who are leaning strongly toward Obama this cycle. Pollsters who do contact cell phone only households put Obama's lead at 10 points.

2) Obama has demonstrated a capacity to turn out his vote during the Democratic Caucuses and McCain spent all his GOTV money on TV ads. Every indicator of enthusiasm points to Democrats being energized and Republicans being depressed--which reminds me very much of 1994.

3) In states that allow early voting and also track party registration among early voters, Democrats have had a very large advantage among early voters. Now it is possible that all the Republicans are waiting for election day to cast their ballots--but I think that is a poor bet to make. I think some Republicans will stay home and turnout among young voters and African-Americans will be up sharply.

Being Honest About the Future

2008-11-02T10:27:00.003-05:00

Last spring I was angry. The Thrashers traded Hossa. I wasn't angry about that. I was angry because the team didn't trade Holik and other veterans. I wa angry because we heard a lot of "happy talk" about how the Thrashers were leading the division late in the year.

All of this "happy talk" was just self deception. The Thrashers were only in the playoff "hunt" because the entire Southeast Division was laughably weak. The one moment where the Thrashers were "leading the division" was created when Carolina began their late season collapse and Washington had yet to rise from the ashes of their brutal start. In that brief window the Thrashers looked better.

But the truth is that last year's squad needed a fundamental rebuild. The Thrashers were one of the oldest veteran-laden teams in the entire NHL. The veterans didn't play hard enough or well enough most nights--and veterans are expensive. The Thrashers were old and costly and they needed a full on rebuild. To contend on a budget you need a lot of young talent.

What was required was an honest assessment of just how bad the team was. The Thrashers were "lucky" last years in the shootout--which made them look better than they really were. The Thrashers were "lucky" to play in a very weak division--which also made them better than they really were. If you use Goal Differential as a measure of team quality (and I do)--Atlanta was 30th--the worst team in the entire NHL last year.

The mistakes of club management were compounded by the feuding ownership. When you're at rock bottom major changes are required. But ownership was either unwilling to pay for a new GM or unwilling to be honest about just how bad the team was last season (just as they couldn't accept firing Bob Hartley in the summer of 2007 after he lost the team in the playoffs).

Instead they kept the same GM in place and we got a half hearted rebuild. The organization never had the firesale they should have had. Even during the summer I advocated moving Lehtonen for young players. Pavelec looked like he was ready to begin his NHL career and the Thrashers are still one of the older teams in the league. They should have traded Lehtonen for pieces of the future.

Now the frachise and the team are at a cross roads. After two brutal losses in their last three games the season is on the line. The team played pretty well out of the gate but couldn't score--they deserved better. They might be able to pull themselves out of the funk but it has to start immediately. November is the easiest month on their schedule. If they don't exit this month with a winning record look out--because the schedule only gets tougher.

The bigger problem is Kovalchuk looks disinterested this year. Last year the team played with very little passion, but Kovalchuk was an exception and he single handly carried the offense at times. This year Lehonen is playing well and Kovalchuk looks like a passenger. If the team goes down in flames this year it seems likely to me that Kovalchuk will want out.

At that point ownership will be face-to-face with the giant mess. Will the ownership do what is necessary and hire a new GM who can then trade Kovalchuk, Schneider and Lehtonen for the young players we need to become a playoff contender in 2010 and beyond? Sometimes hitting rock bottom can be good--but you have to be honest and realize that's where you are and make major changes. Last year we hit bottom and failed to take the drastic steps necessary to rebuild and it looks like that only delayed the pain of parting with anohter marquee star player.

Thrashers Team Rankings in Historical Perspective

2008-11-01T12:43:00.005-04:00

The Thrashers have now played about 10% of their season schedule. I was looking at where this year's club ranks in various categories compared to past Thrasher teams. There are a 72 more games to be played and some of these numbers for this season could move quite dramatically. So far the team has had one blowout win (7-4 over WAS) and one blowout loss (0-7 PHI) and a bunch of close contests (but mostly losses).

To make these rankings more intuitive, any team ranking that is in the bottom 1/3 I made the text appear blue and any ranking in the middle 1/3 black and any ranking in the top 1/3 red.

NHL Standings Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 23
2003-2004 21
2005-2006 20
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 29
Summary: Only one season has the team not finished in the bottom third.

Player Salary Rank
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 26
2005-2006 02
2006-2007 17
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 29
After the lockout the owners spent big time, then fell to middle of the back and then to the basement again in the 3rd season after the lockout.

Average Attendance Rank
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 28
2002-2003 28
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 23
2006-2007 21
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 28
Attendance has never been great other than the initial 1999-2000 season. On the other hand the Thrashers attendance ranking has been higher than their standings ranking multiple times in team history--people have bought tickets even for a terrible hockey product.

Offense (Goals For Average)
2000-2001 27
2001-2002 26
2002-2003 10
2003-2004 13
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 22
2008-2009 24
Offense is one rare area where the Thrashers have managed to be above average in their franchise history. The one year the team spent big they were very good offensively, because almost all the money went into forwards--of course they also couldn't defend very well.

Defense (Goals Against Average)
2000-2001 29
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 25
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 15
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 29
This is by far the most damning indictment of Don Waddell's tenure. That a former defensemen can't seem to assemble a mediocre defensive corps is really amazing. The best defensive season in franchise history the team only managed to rise as high as middle of the pack, every other season the club has finished in the bottom third.

Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)
2000-2001 28
2001-2002 30
2002-2003 27
2003-2004 22
2005-2006 16
2006-2007 16
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 30
To be an contending club you can't continually stink it up on offense or defense, you have to be able to both reasonably well. The Thrashers had two outstanding offensive teams and neither made the playoffs. The one team that did was decent on offense (15th) and decent on defense (15th).

Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 20
2002-2003 26
2003-2004 24
2005-2006 13
2006-2007 19
2007-2008 30
2008-2009 27
The current Thrashers team is ranked 11th in shots for but just 29th in shots against.

Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)
2000-2001 24
2001-2002 27
2002-2003 30
2003-2004 27
2005-2006 24
2006-2007 13
2007-2008 19
2008-2009 20
Pre-lockout the Thrashers finished in the basement each season, post-lockout this is one of the few areas where the team has ranked in the middle third. Lehtonen's SV% ranking has increased each year relative to other starting goalies.

Finishing (Shot Percentage)
2000-2001 23
2001-2002 17
2002-2003 07
2003-2004 05
2005-2006 06
2006-2007 12
2007-2008 11
2008-2009 27
In their history the Thrashers have had three offensive superstars: Kovalchuk , Heatley and Hossa. You can see this in the team shot percentage. Great players finish off their chances at a much higher rate than your average NHL player. This season the Thrashers ranked 11th in shots taken but rank just 27th in terms of scoring on their shots--that's what losing a Marian Hossa means (and having Kovalchuk off to a slow start). Still there is reason to believe the offense will improve if Kovalchuk heats up and the rest of the forwards get a little more luck around the net.

Power Play Percentage
2000-2001 25
2001-2002 29
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 23
2005-2006 04
2006-2007 23
2007-2008 23
2008-2009 19
Despite having some super stars who could finish, the Thrashers have had just one outstanding PP season in team history. The current PP unit has actually improved over last year's so far.

Penalty Kill Percentage
2000-2001 30
2001-2002 25
2002-2003 24
2003-2004 08
2005-2006 27
2006-2007 26
2007-2008 27
2008-2009 26
Consistently poor. I have no explanation for that 2003-04 anomaly.

Earning Power Play Opportunities
2000-2001 07
2001-2002 24
2002-2003 13
2003-2004 02
2005-2006 01
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 28
2008-2009 09
The outstanding area in team history is earning penalties. The Thrashers have been on the PP more often than most teams and they accomplished this in spite of the fact that Kovalchuk doesn't get the benefit of thedoubt as a consequence of his early diving issues.

Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)
2000-2001 26
2001-2002 21
2002-2003 17
2003-2004 28
2005-2006 28
2006-2007 10
2007-2008 15
2008-2009 19
Bad teams usually take a lot of penalties. The players are not as good and they cheat and get called for it. Given their talent level the Thrashers have been a relatively disciplined team over the years. The one year the team qualified for the playoffs they did very well at staying out of the box. An observation: since Marc Savard and Modry have departed the Thrashers have not finished in the basement in penalties taken.

Conclusion
The Thrashers have been bad at a lot of things in their history. I realize that is hardly a news flash to long term fans. What about this year? The most encouraging thing I can say is that they are generating pressure offensively, They rank 11th in shots and their up tempo system is earning the club a lot of PP opportunities (9th). So far they just haven't capitalized (27th in shooting %) and the offense ranks just 24th--I expect the offense to rise as the season progresses.

On the defensive side things are still concerning. The shots allowed are still too high. Part of that is the new offensive system in which the defensemen are supposed to take more chances holding the puck in at the offensive blueline. The Thrashers forwards must become better at covering for those pinching defensemen in those situations where they fail to hold it in the offensive zone.

Thrashers Players After 10 Games

2008-10-30T22:35:00.007-04:00

2008-2009 Season Corsi Numbers
(Net Shots Attempted at ES while that players was on the ice)
-32 Team

Defense
+16 Exelby
+8 Bogosian
+8 Oystrick
+1 Schnedier
-4 Hainsey
-45 Havelid
-52 Enstrom

Comments: Well the Swedish D pair is getting badly outshot. Keep in mind that these number numbers for shots fired at even strength only. Now it is possible that the Enstrom-Havelid pairing are being matched up against the other team's top line, but they are still allowing too many shots. The Swedish D pairing has been out shot badly at ES in both the first five games of the season and the next set of five game (-28 and -24 for Enstrom).

Exelby was a strong +16 in the first 5 games but has slipped to -8 in the next five games, the same pattern is there for Hainsey (unsurprisingly) who was +4 in the first five and -8 in the next five. Schneider on the other hand started off -5 and then went +6 in his next five games.

Forwards
+26 Armstrong
+6 Perrin
+4 Kozlov
+3 Reasoner
0 Christensen
-4 Sterling
-11 Williams
-12 White
-14 Slater
-19 Kovlachuk
-20 Boulton
-20 Thorburn
-28 Little

Comments: What Colby Armstong has done is nothing short of amazing. On a team which has been out shot by 32 so far this season he is an astonishing +26 on the season. The Thrashers have out shot the opposition when Armstrong is out on the ice at ES in 9 of the 10 games to start the season (NJD is the one exception).

On the other extreme we find the Greek God line (Slater -14, Bouton -20 and Throburn -23) and the Kovalchuk line (Kovalchuk -19, Little -28 and White -12). This continues a trend from last season. Last year both Kovalchuk's line and the 4th line were badly out chanced at even strength.

Close But No Cigar...Again

2008-10-30T21:51:00.003-04:00

The Thrasher played hard and were competitive against a better team...again. Here's a quick re-cap of the Thrashers record after 10 games.

7-4 WAS
2-3 FLA
2-4 MIN
0-1 NJD
3-2 BUF
2-3 TBL
3-5 DET (EN goal)
4-5 BOS
2-3 NYR

Basically the Thrashers have been involved in one blowout win and one blowout loss and all the rest of the games they were either tied or within one goal right up until the end of the game. (In the MIN game the score was to 3-2 until 18th minute of the third period).

People are flipping out on the official message boards. I guess if I expected this team to make major strides I might flip out too. But I never expected this team to make the playoffs this year. They look like a 85-88 point team to me and playoffs usually require 95 points. Yet, the guys have played hard in every game other than the Philly contest. They have been in every contest but the Philly game.

Last season's Thrashers club would have stumbled along for several games after a terrible blowout loss such as the Philly 7-0 game. This team came out and competed, they bounced back and did the good things they were doing prior to Tuesday night. That's the most I can ask as a fan (other than a win). Coach Anderson remarked that they have been a bit unlucky so far and I concur with that. They should probably have a couple more points in the standing but they haven't been able to finish off on some crucial scoring opportunities.

This team has more of a future than last year's team. We actually have some young players who could be on a Cup contending team in 2010. Last year we had too many guys who were destined to be out of the NHL by 2010.

Who is Playing Well On Special Teams?

2008-10-30T15:13:00.003-04:00

[Editorial note: I wrote this before the Flyers game and I didn't feel like updating it after the 7-0 loss. Don't complain, I do this for free.]

In a typical NHL hockey game roughly one quarter of the contest is spent in special team situations. Some folks call these stretches "high leverage events" because the chances of a goal being scored a much higher than they are at Even Strength.

Right now the Thrashers rank 23rd on the PP and 22nd on the PK. Both could stand to be better of course. So which Thrashers are playing well and which are playing poorly so far?

In order to answer that question I came up with a system that looks at how the team does when that player is on the ice. Most readers don't care much for the math so I put the explanation down at the bottom of this post.

Penalty Kill Rating (Thrashers with 1 minute or more of SH TOI)
(Positive numbers indicate the TEAM was more productive when normal when that players was on the ice.)
+2.73 Eric Perrin
+1.85 Marty Reasoner
+1.44 Ron Hainsey
+1.40 Garnet Exelby
+0.36 Zach Bogosian
+0.27 Ilya Kovalchuk
+0.25 Nathan Oystrick
+0.09 Colby Armstrong
-0.22 Erik Christensen
-0.64 Todd White (includes one 5 on 3 goal)
-1.07 Tobias Enstrom (includes one 5 on 3 goal)
-1.14 Mathieu Schneider
-1.39 Jim Slater
-1.81 Slava Kozlov
-2.18 Nic Havelid (includes one 5 on 3 goal)

Note: I noted that three of the players have one 5>3 goal counted against them. Defending a 5>3 is much harder of course and being on for one of those goals should probably count less than a 5>4 but I don't have an easy breakdown of PK ice time by manpower situations so it is all lumped together on NHL.com.

Discussion: The best forwards are Perrin and Reasoner (not a big surprise) and the best defense are Hainsey and Exelby pairing. On the flip side the worst forwards so far are Kozlov and Slater (who was demoted from the PK early last season) and Havelid and Schneider.

Now before anyone gets too carried away with this analysis I must point out that the team has only played 8 games and therefore the sample size is tiny here. A lucky or unlucky bounce of the puck will distort these ratings a great deal early in the season. However, I will say that the ranking roughly reflect my impressions--I certainly expected Perrin and Reasoner to come out on top and I expected Slater to finish near the bottom. I'm a bit surprised to see Exelby doing that well but he has played much better so far this season after being partnered with Ron Hainsey. I'm also a bit surprised to see Havelid doing so poorly.

Power Play Rating (Thrashers with 1 minute or more of SH TOI)
(Positive numbers indicate the TEAM was more productive when normal when that players was on the ice.)
+2.97 Todd White
+1.20 Colby Armstrong
+1.04 Nic Havelid
+1.01 Slava Kozlov
+0.91 Tobias Enstrom
+0.75 Zach Bogosian
-0.06 Ilya Kovalchuk
-0.08 Eric Boulton
-0.09 Marty Reasoner
-0.89 Bryan Little
-1.13 Jason Williams
-1.30 Ron Hainsey
-1.48 Mathieu Schneider
-2.54 Erik Christensen

Discussion: You red hot players are Todd White, Armstrong, Havelid and Enstrom. The team has scored at a higher than expected rate on the PP when they have been out on the PP unit so far this season. Todd White might surprise people but he actually put up some very strong PP scoring rate numbers his last year in Minnesota before coming to Atlanta-so there is a track record of him being fairly effective with the extra man. Todd White has been on the ice for 5 of the 7 PP goals the Thrashers have scored so far this season. He's either extremely lucky or he's doing some good things out there--I'll go with the latter. Note to the Thrashers coaching staff--play Slava more on the PP and less on the PK!

As far as the ice cold players (Christensen, Williams, Schneider and Hainesy) I was a little surprised to see Hainsey but he's received a mountain of PP ice time and the team has potted just 2 PP goals in that stretch. Everyone who follows this team knows that Williams and Christensen are off to slow starts--but the depth of Christensen's struggles are pretty amazing. So far this season only Kovalchuk and Schneider have received more PP minutes and Christensen has been out there on the ice for a Thrashers PP goal just once in all those minutes. Based on the team average we would expect the Thrashers to have scored 2.5 more PP goals in those minutes. Note to the staff Erik Christensen probably shouldn't be your 2nd ranked forward in PP ice time--if I were advising the team I'd suggest Eric Perrin get a few more of Erik Christensen's PP minutes (Perrin has just 10 seconds on the PP this season).

Again, it is early in the season and lucky or unlucky bounces can certainly skew things in the short run. Even with that caveat, I think I learned a few things by doing this little research project.

How I calculated this: Basically for both the PP and PK situations I am comparing the number of Thrashers PP goals scored (or PK goals allowed) to the Expected Goals For (or Expected Goals Allowed) given the number of minutes played by each guy. So the first thing I did is gather the ice time stats and who was on the ice for every special teams goals from the boxscores. Then I calculated the team rate (PPTOI/PPGF) and used each player's ice time to find an expected goals number (PPTOI/ATL average Team PPG per minute) and then subtracted the actual goals from the expected goals (Actual PPG-Expected PP Goals) to produce a rating for each players based upon their special teams ice time and the Thrashers production when that particular player is on the ice.

Bogosian Out, Oystrick In

2008-10-30T13:13:00.002-04:00

Zach has a broken leg. This means Oystrick will play tonight. It might also mean that Valabik gets called up from Chicago since most teams like to have an extra defensemen around.

This is a big opportunity for Oystrick to show he can play in the NHL. I've never been overly impressed with him in the AHL, but I am curious to see what happens.

Same Old Story, How Will it End?

2008-10-28T22:27:00.003-04:00

The Flyers came to Atlanta and crushed the Thrashers...again. The Thrashers made an early mistake (turnover by Boulton) and then fell apart as everyone tried to freelance. The game was a stinker, I watched the third period at Taco Mac where I at least had the pleasure of eating a good meal and some the company of some other long suffering Atlanta fans (Flames fans even!).

Thursday is a major test for the Thrashers and Coach Anderson. The old Thrashers club would suffer a brutal loss like this and then struggle to regain their confidence. Quality teams are able to mentally turn the page after a bad game and get right back to doing the good things there were doing before. Will the Thrashers display that sort of mental toughness? They certainly were playing solid hockey before this game--can they turn forget about Tuesday night and get back to where they were before?

Can Coach Anderson get them back on track quickly? Coach Hartley and Coach Waddell certainly struggled to get the train back on the tracks here in Atlanta. The Wednesday practice has been moved to Philips Arena which means it is closed to public. It also means Coach Anderson can peel the paint off the walls if he feels that is necessary--without embarrassing players in public.

The last thing I have to say is this, how many times does Nittymaki need to outplay Lehtonen before Atlanta will realize they should start the backup against him. Nittymaki has beaten Lehtonen every time he has faced in the NHL. Back in 2005 Nittymaki and the Philadelphia Phantoms swept Lehtonen and the Chicago Wolves. If my math is correct that means Nittymaki has something like an 11-0 record versus Lehtonen if you look at their last 11 contests against one another. Please let's try Hedberg next time. It might not work but they really ought to give a shot.

Some Quick Hits

2008-10-28T12:51:00.003-04:00

Ken Klee was claimed off waivers and will play for Phoenix. I certainly hope Gretzky remembers to send Brian Burke a bouquet of flowers in return for those cheap serviceable players (Brygalov, Klee) he has given the Coyotes lately.

I see that the announced attendance up in Columbus was just over 10,000. Keep in mind this is a northern (i.e. "traditional) hockey market. It just goes to show that fans in Columbus will not buy a poor hockey product forever, same as fans in Atlanta. "If you don't build it, they will not come."

Three good reads:

Why does the NHL get the shaft while NFL gets off free and easy?

NHL considering unorthodox moves to improve scoring

Alan Ryder shows what is really going on with scoring the last few years.

Kovalchuk Rumors

2008-10-27T14:15:00.003-04:00

Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa sun writes:

Talk among NHL GMs is that Atlanta might be willing to make a huge deal before the trade deadline. W Ilya Kovalchuk, 25, is a year away from unrestricted free agency and has another season left on his contract at $7.5 million, but the whisper among executives is he might become available. It would be a tough pill for Atlanta to swallow, but Kovalchuk certainly wouldn't be the first franchise player to be dealt.

I really hate having to write about this right now. The Thrashers are playing better than I expected. The last thing the club needs is another black trade speculation cloud hanging over them as was the case last year with all the Hossa talk.

Garrioch has a checkered history of these things. He's been terribly wrong and he's also been correct in the past. On the Thrasher Talons scale of rumor mongers he certainly comes in higher than Eklund.

The problem is this: no matter what the Thrashers say this kind of chatter will be out there until the Kovalchuk either re-signs next summer or a trade is made. There are no magic words that are going to make these trade rumors cease.

Do I believe there have been converstations where Kovalchuk's name was mentioned? Absolutely yes. I'm sure that GMs talk about players all the time just to get a feel for their market value at that moment. I'm not shocked to think that one GM says to another GM "what would you give me for player x?" What really matters is not that a phone conversion about Kovalchuk took place, but how serious that conversation was--and only the two people involved in that conversation know how serious it was.

Would trading Kovalchuk be a good idea? I've gone back and forth on this one to be honest. In my head the case for trading Kovlachuk runs like this: a) his defensive lapses are so bad that I believe he would probably cost his team a goal here and there in a tight playoff series--I'm not sure his offensive talent alone will get your team a Cup. b) Kovalchuk is a great player, but his stats are inflated because the Thrashers give him HUGE amounts of PP ice time. Kovalchuk is not early as effective with his ice time as other top NHL stars. c) The Thrashers are not close enough to contending and he probably wouldn't want to stick around until they are close to contending.

Would a trade help create a contender in this market? From a Marketing Department perspective trading Kovalchuk would be a disaster, but from a Hockey Operations perspective it might not be so bad. Why? The Thrashers will never be able to spend money like the best teams. The best chance to contend for a Stanley Cup is to load up on quality young players and have the team make a run before the core gets really expensive (age 27+). Once you generate some buzz in this market the revenues will increase and the money will be there to pay their salaries. The Thrashers have some good foundational players who are between the ages of 20-25, but the problem is that there are not ENOUGH of them--the foundation is not big enough for a contender. If you deal Kovlachuk for three young players now you might have the foundation for a contender in 2010.

What is the case for not trading Kovalchuk? If you trade for young players who never make it, then you come up short big time. So far out of the Hossa trade only Colby Armstrong is a clear asset to the current team. Christensen continues his existence as a talented tease, Esposito may or may not become a NHL player and Pittsburgh's 1st rounder draft pick is four years away from playing in the NHL. That's one player and three maybes (and I'm only optimistic about one of those maybes).

The other consideration is that Kovalchuk has begun to show greater leadership skills last season when he carried the team on his back offensively and this season he has shown more improvement on the defensive side of the ice. Ilya will go from a star to a superstar level if he becomes a sound defensive guy. The potential is there, and it is too great to give up on.

What will happen next? If the Thrashers are having serious trade talks that means either that ownership is not willing to offer a $100 million Ovehckin sized contract next summer or that Kovalchuk has privately expressed concerns about re-signing in Atlanta. What I do know that if a decision has been made to move Kovalchuk the team will get the biggest bang for their buck by making a move sooner rather than later. If you trade Kovlachuk with nearly two years remaining, the club that acquires him is going to have two seasons to win him over and get him to re-sign there and thus they will be more likely to offer a better package. Hopefully this is nothing more than the usual slow week rumor chatter and I will not need to write about this topic again.

A Little Perspective People

2008-10-26T23:43:00.002-04:00

A few folks on the message boards are crying that the sky is falling after two regulation losses. I'm certainly disappointed in the outcome of the Boston game.

But if you take a hard look at the schedule so far so far, you will see that the Thrashers have had a run of fairly good opponents. I'll use the Vegas season over/under point projections for each team. Let's see how the Thrashers stack up to the opposition.

Washington 93.5, Atlanta 79.5
Florida 82.5, Atlanta 79.5
Minnesota 92.5, Atlanta 79.5
NJ Devils 97.5, Atlanta 79.5
Buffalo 91.5, Atlanta 79.5
Tampa Bay 91.5, Atlanta 79.5
Detroit 109.5, Atlanta 79.5
Boston 91.5, Atlanta 79.5

Now you can quibble with the Vegas projections (I see the Thrashers as more of high to mid 80 point team myself) but in none of these contests was Atlanta a strong favorite. The Thrashers have played well against some good teams and probably deserved to walk away with a couple more points than they have right now.

Mistakes Costly in Boston

2008-10-26T12:48:00.002-04:00

Last night's contest up in Boston may have been the most entertaining Thrasher game so far this year. There were many warning signs heading into this game: playing on back to back nights, a rusty goalie, the potential for an emotional let down after facing Hossa and the Cup Champs.

Yet the team came out and played with great energy. The 4th line was getting regular ice time. The team finally broke through on the power play. After a lot of tough luck on the PP the puck comes right Ilya Kovalchuk who makes an amazing play by knocking the puck out of the air and into the back of the net. Hedberg made a couple of key saves early and the energy level and commitment from the players looked like it would carry them to victory over the Bruins.

But two things did in the Thrashers this night: officiating and youth. Regular readers know I don't spend a lot of time obsessing about bad calls. Officials make mistakes calling the world's fastest game and players simply to find a way to win within that context. Last night the NHL had all 30 teams playing and therefore used 15 different sets of linesmen and referees. I don't know if that had a direct effect on the Atlanta-Boston game, but there were some strange calls. Numerous players were whistled from some very marginal things and yet I saw two different hits from behind that were non-calls. Enstrom's penalty in particular was just a brutal call in my opinion.

The non-call on Chara's hit from behind on Armstrong was incredible. Chara hit Armstrong right in the middle of Coby's back. In youth hockey they have the kids wear little STOP signs on their back when they are learning how to check--if there had been a STOP sign on the back of Armstrong's back that's precisely where Chara made contact with him. Coby made an incredible play right after that to deflect the puck to Kozlov who released a laser quick shot to tie the game 4-4 at that point.

The Thrashers have shown terrific improvement in their defensive coverage. In years past it was not unusual to see someone wide open adjacent to the net. We hadn't seen that this season until last night. There was a play were Bogosian, Perrin and Slater simply didn't read the play the same way and a wide open man scored an easy goal. On the TV broadcast Darren Eliot seemed to think it was Bogosian who erred, I lean towards putting the blame on Perrin who he appeared to be coming back to take that man in the slot and then curled away to the side boards, Slater comes into the picture very late as the Boston player scores--I'm not sure where he was due to the camera angle.

On the game winning goal it was a simple mistake by Little that led to the Boston victory. With less than 2 minutes in the game the puck comes to Little on the side boards--he had time and space to chip it out of the defensive zone, but sees a hit coming and decides to keep the puck and curl back into his own end. The puck is jarred loose and Enstrom is suddenly faced with a two on one. Enstrom goes down to block the passing lane and the man with the puck roofs it over Hedberg. An ugly finish to an otherwise good game. In this game at least the Thrashers youth probably cost them a point. I'm glad to the young guys get their chance but there are going to be nights where this happens.

Corsi Box Score (ES Thrashers Shots minus Opposition Shots Attempted)

Team -4

Defense
The defense pairings all received ice time against Detroit's Zetterberg and Datsyuk lines. 20:41 Schneider +1
16:41 Bogosian +2

19:38 Havelid -3
21:56 Enstrom -2

23:08 Hainsey -3
17:13 Exelby -3

Forwards
The 2nd line really won their ES battle and the 3rd line really lost out.
20:35 Kovalchuk -1
19:30 White -3
16:28 Little -4

12:36 Kozlov +8
11:35 Christensen +8
16:15 Armstrong +6

15:10 Perrin -10
15:25 Reasoner -8
14:00 Williams -9

08:26 Thorburn +1
12:35: Slater -1
07:28 Sterling +0

Real Eastern Standings (Points - Games Played)
This controls for differences in games played by teams
+6 BUF
+6 NYR
+4 MON
+3 NJD
+3 PIT
+2 CAR
+1 WAS
+1 BOS
---------- Playoffs
+1 TOR
+0 FLA
-1 PHI
-2 ATL
-2 TBL
-3 OTT
-3 NYI

Real Western Standings (Points - Games Played)
+5 SJS
+5 DET
+5 MIN
+2 STL
+2 COL
+1 EDM
+1 CHI
+1 CGY
--------------Playoffs
-0 VAN
-0 NAS
-1 PHX
-1 LAK
-1 DAL
-1 ANA
-2 CBJ

Detroit Clearly More Crisp Than Atlanta

2008-10-25T14:11:00.001-04:00

So this was my first time to ever see a Thrashers game in HD. I was invited over to watch the game at a friend-of-the-blogger and we all revealed in the joy of their new DirecTV HD setup. I have to say it was amazing that the viewer can actually see whether the puck is lying flat on the ice or if it is on its edge during the course of play. It really feels like you're sitting at the rink except that the annoying fan who sits in your section isn't there. One person joked that the NHL on HD is better than watching the game "with your own eyes" in person. I'm not sure I would go that far--there's no pasta bar or hot pretzels available at home.

As for the game the Thrashers performed better than I expected. The Red Wings are the runaway favorites this year after winning the championship and then adding Marian Hossa and retaining Brad Stuart on their blue line (they only added Stuart at last spring's trading deadline). Hossa essentially replaces Dallas Drake--no offense to Drake but that's a serious upgrade. On the other hand, nobody is picking your Atlanta Thrashers to win much of anything so on paper it was a mismatch of titanic proportions.

The Wings displayed their formidable talent by working the puck on the power play until they got a 2 on 1 right in front of the net where Zetterberg made a highly accurate shot to beat Lehtonen. Hossa showed the power forward moves we witnessed in Atlanta for another amazing goal. And before you knew it this game was 3-1 with the Thrashers picking up a once-in-a-Blue-Moon tally from Jim Slater (perhaps playing back at Joe Louis revived his MSU scoring touch?).

Just when it seemed to be over two late goals by Ron Hainsey (working hard to keep that #1 D rating I see) and Brett Sterling made it 4-3 and suddenly the Thrashers were close to stealing a point or more. But the Red Wings kept Atlanta off the board and picked up the empty netter to salt it away. There are no moral victories in the NHL, but this yet another game where the Thrashers exceeded my expectations. So far the Thrashers have taken on 5 likely playoff teams in their first 7 games and they have been competitive in each of those 5 contests.

Marty Reasoner was injured early in the 2nd and this led to increased ice time for Brett Sterling among others. Personally, I was glad to see him get that goal for multiple reasons. The Thrashers could really benefit from someone who will park themselves right in the crease and go for rebounds and screens. If Sterling has a role in the NHL he needs to become another Holmstrom in my opinion. Sterling isn't very fast--and neither is Holmstrom--but he has good hands and good scoring instincts. Much like Holmstrom Sterling is unlikely to amass big even strength point totals because he lacks that extra gear, but he could become a very valuable power play guy.

One more thing I wanted to toss out there for your consideration is this. The Thrashers continue to get out shot this season. Last night the allowed 43 to Detroit. I went back and tracked the shots on goal by situation through the first seven games and here is the break down.

Season Totals Through Seven Games
Even Strength Shots: ATL 162, Opposition 179= -17
Power Play Shots: ATL 54, Opposition 64= -10
Penalty Kill Shots: ATL 2, Opposition 14 = -12

It is that last one that really jumps out at me. The Thrashers are allowing 2 shorthanded shots on goal per game and yet creating a short handed shot once every three games. Not only has the Thrashers Power Play struggled to convert but they have given up a surprising number of SH chances. Last night in Detroit they allowed THREE short handed shots on goal.

On the flip side the Atlanta PK unit is not getting much pressure on the opposition net. Last year's squad had Hossa, Dupuis and Perrin who would all try to score short handed. Of those three only Perrin is on the current roster. I'm not sure what else to say about this, but I did find it a little surprising so I thought I'd pass it along.

Finally a word about match ups in the Detroit game. The Red Wings feature two great offensive lines centered by Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Their 3rd and 4th lines are not bad either with Filppula and Draper. Since this game was in Detroit they had the last change and the advantage of matching lines. So I made some comments below about who played against whom.

Corsi Box Score (ES Thrashers Shots minus Opposition Shots Attempted)
Team
Lehtonen -8

Defense
The defense pairings all received ice time against Detroit's Zetterberg and Datsyuk lines. 17:47 Schneider +1
14:06 Bogosian +1

21:24 Havelid -6
20:50 Enstrom +0

25:14 Hainsey -7
15:36 Exelby -7

Forwards
23:47 Kovalchuk -8
20:11 White -10
20:09 Little -7
The 1st line played mostly against Detroit's Datsyuk line. The Datsyuk line out chanced the Kovalchuk line by a rather wide margin. Kovalchuk has great speed and a great shot but so far he has not been very impressive at even strength season--last year he was very impressive in terms of creating ES scoring chances.

18:59 Kozlov -4
16:41 Christensen +4
18:12 Armstrong +5
The 2nd line played most of their minutes versus the Detroit's Zetterberg line.

11:25 Perrin 0
06:51 Reasoner +2
12:29 Williams +4
The 3rd line was matched against Detroit's Filppula line

09:15 Thorburn -2
1036: Slater -2
10:59 Sterling -4
The 4th was out shot mostly by Detroit's checking line centered by Draper.

Real Eastern Standings (Points - Games Played)
This controls for differences in games played by teams
+6 BUF
+5 MON
+5 NYR
+3 NJD
+3 PIT
+1 CAR
+1 FLA
+0 WAS
---------- Playoffs
+0 TOR
+0 BOS
-1 ATL
-1 TBL
-2 OTT
-2 NYI
-2 PHI

Real Western Standings (Points - Games Played)
+4 SJS
+4 DET
+4 MIN
+2 EDM
+1 STL
+1 COL
+1 CHI
+0 CGY
--------------Playoffs
+0 PHX
+0 LAK
-1 DAL
-1 CBJ
-1 VAN
-1 NAS
-2 ANA

Thrashers Deserving Some Praise

2008-10-23T19:37:00.003-04:00

We are VERY early in the NHL season right but a couple of Thrashers are putting forth a strong effort which has staked the team to a 2-2-2 record, despite playing with one less superstar this season.

The website HockeyAnalysis.com has a ranking for forwards, defense and goalies. Right now their formula has the Thrashers own Ron Hainsey ranked as the #1 defensemen in the NHL. His high ranking is due to his outstanding defensive score (which will almost certainly decline with time). Kovalchuk ranks at the 13th best forward and he has not really heated up yet.

Kari Lehtonen gets comes out looking pretty good in this analysis by Tyler Dellow. He ranks all the goalies who have seen 2000 shots since the lockout and Lehtonen ends up ranking #11 out of 38 who qualify. If you want to see more about his method, click here to go to the post. I've always said that if you put Kari in front of a respectable NHL defense he would probably look like a star.

New Addition at Thrashers Talons

2008-10-23T18:31:00.008-04:00

In the past I have mentioned taking our Adventure Cat along on our 2006 road trip to see the Thrashers play in Pittsburgh and Buffalo. It turns out that Adventure Cat is really not all that adventurous and would prefer to stay home rather than ride in the car.

Well this last weekend we added a 2nd feline member to our staff as three month old Zydeco will be helping us out. She can't read or type but she is good at keeping a lap warm or amusing us after a tough Thrashers loss.

Her name is Zydeco as she is an evacuee from New Orleans who was brought to Atlanta before Hurricane Gustav struck the Gulf Coast. Time will tell if she is a good road trip companion but we already know she likes hockey. She was watching the games on TV several times this week.

Thrashers Rally for Late Tie Point on the Road

2008-10-21T22:34:00.004-04:00

Since this game was not televised there is little I can add if you listened to Dan Kamal's broadcast. It sounded like Lehtonen was very strong again as the Thrashers got off to a slow 1st period (out shot 18-5) but Atlanta clawed their way into a point with a strong 3rd period outshooting the Lightning 15-8. It was good to get a point, but White and Christensen messed up key scoring chances and Little took a costly penalty in OT, those mistakes resulted in a division rival receiving two standing points.

Speaking of Erick Christensen back at the Pre-Season Townhall Event I was talking with the gentlemen who operate the Blueland Chronicle and I expressed some doubts; "Christensen has been something of a tease so far in the NHL, everyone talks about him being stuck behind Crosby, Malkin and Staal at center (and it's true) but he has done very little with his ES and PP ice time so far in his NHL career."

Christensen is one of those players who shows "flashes" of skill but hasn't really established much of a track record of consistent production in the NHL. Many hoped that with consistent ice time and linemates he would have a break out season. Through six games of the 2008-09 season he is getting a steady diet of ice time at ES and has very little to show for it. This is year is big opportunity for Erik and so far the results have been underwhelming. Frankly Brett Sterling is probably deserving of a look--he has consistently scored at the AHL and the Thrashers 2nd line has been pretty quiet since Little moved up to Kovalchuk's line.

Another struggling players Jason Williams played a season low 11:55. Assuming that he wasn't injured it seems that the coaching staff is sending him a signal. Perhaps Sterling will dress and Williams will sit next game.

Corsi Box Score (ES Thrashers Shots minus Opposition Shots Attempted)
Team
Lehtonen +3

Defense
22:09 Schneider +2
13:38 Bogosian +5

22:11 Havelid -1
23:27 Enstrom +0

The Hainsey-Exelby combo and Enstrom-Havelid split playing versus Vinny Lecavalier.

23:12 Hainsey +0
17:14 Exelby +0

Forwards
22:18 Kovalchuk +4
18:33 White +4
17:40 Little +3

16:29 Kozlov +2
11:55 Williams +0
15:45 Christensen +2

14:20 Perrin -1
14:15 Reasoner +3
18:23 Armstrong +0

Armstrong and Christensen had the heavy defensive work of matching up against Lecavalier most of the night for the Thrashers.

8:12 Thorburn -5
12:08 Slater -5
6:08 Boulton -3

The 4th line was out shot at ES. They played the most ice time against the Recchi-Gratton-Vrbata line not the top line of Lecavalier.

Real Eastern Standings (Points - Games Played)
This controls for differences in games played by teams
+5 MON
+5 BUF
+4 NYR
+3 NJD
+2 WAS
+1 CAR
+2 PIT
+1 BOS
---------- Playoffs
+0 OTT
+0 ATL
-1 FLA
-1 NYI
-1 TOR
-1 TBL
-3 PHI

Right now every single team in the East is just two points out of a playoff berth, except for Philadelphia.

The Thrashers after 5 Games

2008-10-20T23:52:00.005-04:00

It is probably too early in the season to put a lot of weight into any stats. Anything can happen in a five day period. I recall the mid-1980s when the Toronto Maple Leafs would get off to a hot start in the old NHL Norris Division causing dreams of respectability for many fans on the shores of Lake Ontario only to see them come crashing back down to Earth and miss the playoffs again.

Likewise the Thrashers still have plenty of time to disappoint, but right the early returns are solid. The team is just one point away the top eight (playoff qualifying position) after playing 4 rather tough opponents. Personally I expect Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey and Buffalo to all compete for their respective division titles--earning 4 points against those 4 teams is respectable.

I think for me the most impressive thing is the effort level and the shot production. Last year the team would go through entire periods and entire games where they simply failed to compete and were badly out shot. The Thrashers are still getting out shot, but at least they are now getting their own chances against the opposition net minder.

Other than the poor third period against Florida, the effort level has been very good in my opinion. Is this harbinger for the entire season or just a "new coach" effect that will wear off after a while? Only time will tell.

Let's take a stroll through the various statistical rankings to see where the team is showing improvement. For each item below we can see where the Thrashers rank in the 30 team NHL.

NHL Standings
This Season: 16th (tie)
Last season: 27th
Early on the Thrashers are in the middle of the pack in the standing--certainly better than 0-6 start last year.

Shots For Per Game
This Season: 9th
Last Season: 30th
Major improvements in terms of generating scoring opportunities. Up from dead last to the top 1/3 of the NHL right now.

Goals Scored Per Game
This Season: 23rd (tie)
Last Season: 22nd (tie)
Unfortunately while shots are up sharply, goals scoring remain hard to come by so far. The offensive rank is about where it was last season.

Shots Against Per Game
This Season: 29th
Last Season: 30th
So far no big change in this department. The defensemen are much more mobile this year but with John Anderson's uptempo system the team is going to give up a fair number of shots. If the team gets great goaltending they can still improve on the defensive side of things.

Goals Allowed Per Game
This Season: 12th (tie)
Last Season: 29th (tie)
In fact when we look at GAA we see a MAJOR improvement over last year. Will this improvement hold? Probably not since Hedberg has yet to start and Kari has only allowed one bad goal so far this season (OT in Florida)

Goal Differential (GFA-GAA)
This Season: 18th (tie)
Last Season: 30th
This is a REALLY important stat--probably the single most important one in this post. Goal Differential is a great predictor of the where a team will rank in the standings. It is VERY early, but the Thrashers are showing huge improvement in Goal Differential due to great goaltending basically. Now I expect the GAA to deteriorate some but I also expect the offense to perform a bit better. Hopefully those two changes wash each other out and the Goal Differential number stays up there in the middle of the NHL.

Stopping Shots (SV%)
This Season: 9th
Last Season: 18th
Lehtonen has been very sharp. This explains the bulk of the improvement in the standings so far. The Lehtonen haters are all fairly quit right now.

Converting Shots (ST%)
This Season: 22nd
Last Season: 10th (tie)
The offense is creating more shots but converting fewer of them. Part of that is losing Marian Hossa and part of that is plain bad luck. It seems to me that Atlanta has hit a lot of iron in these first five games and they are due a few fortunate bounces at some point.

Earning Power Plays
This Season: 4th
Last Season: 28th
Atlanta is doing great at getting Power Plays compared to the rest of the league. This is probably due to better team speed and a more aggressive offensive system.

Power Play Percentage
This Season: 27th
Last Season: 23rd
The bad news is that the PP unit hasn't produced much at all. They're getting chances but just not finishing them...yet.

Taking Penalties
This Season: 19th
Last Season: 15th (tie)

Penalty Kill Percentage
This Season: 17th
Last Season: 27th
The team is showing major improvement so far on the PK unit. Still not top half in the NHL but they are no longer bottom of the NHL bad.

Attendance (by tickets distributed)
This Season: 30th
Last Season: 22nd
Attendance (by percent of capacity)
This Season: 30th
Last Season: 21st
Big tumble from last season when they moved tickets following the first ever playoff appearance and the upcoming NHL All-Star Game.

Summary: The team looks better, but probably is not playoff quality. The offense is creating more pressure but not converting enough chances so far. The defense is still allowing a lot of shots but the goaltending has been great so far.

Another NHL Team Misses a Chance to Embrace the Future

2008-10-20T01:54:00.005-04:00

Wow, I go a couple of days without clicking over to read the Battle of Alberta blog and find myself behind the curve on the latest development in the NHL's relationship with bloggers. Blueland Chronicle has a post about this with links to key parts of the story. The very short version of this is that one of the authors of the blog Covered in Oil had a press pass from another media organization and was also using his time in the press box to do a live blog. The Oilers discovered this and summarily revoked his press access because they "don't credential bloggers". In fact, the Oilers do credential bloggers--but only those who blog for print or broadcast outlets. I'm not sure that I have anything new to say about the Edmonton situation that hasn't already been spoken more eloquently by others such as PuckDadddy.

Eric McErlain lays out the case for NHL teams taking a more progressive approach to independent digital media. Atlanta's situation is rather similar to the Capitals. In Washington DC, the NHL team must compete with more established (and more popular sports) for attention in the print, radio and television press. The Capitals realized they were unlikely to suddenly win that battle and they expanded the Capitals-related content for by encouraging and facilitating blogs about their team.

Here in Atlanta we have what may be the largest press box in the NHL. You can look up there on any given night and the upper press box looks like a ghost town. That sure looks like a wasted resource to me. Why not fence off one side of that and create a Blogger Row? Here is a team that gets precious little coverage and fans have little to read in the mainstream press. Often the mainstream press is very negative (which is fair when factual, but that has not always been the case in my opinion). Why not encourage more fan blogs and websites by setting up something to facilitate them?

One argument I hear against this is that people will only blog to avoid buying tickets. Well here's a news flash--I know multiple people who sit in press row on a regular basis who produce ZERO THRASHER CONTENT and simply use their press passes to attend games. Basically if you work for a media outlet at some point in your past you can get a press pass and do NOTHING and still watch NHL hockey for free. I understand why individuals would take advantage of the Thrashers organization, but I don't understand why the Thrashers organization allows itself to be taken advantage of.

On the other hand, bloggers who do create Thrasher content are turned away because we don't work for professional news organizations. Look, if you're worried about a Blogger Row becoming a cheap ticket alternative, then establish some ground rules to weed out the slackers--you have to publish regularly or loose your spot--"publish or perish"--seems like I've heard that one before.

The other objection that is frequently tossed out is that bloggers are unprofessional. Fine, establish ground rules and have Blogger Boot Camp during Training Camp in which any blogger must learn and consent to basic journalistic rules before receiving a credential. At the risk of offending my journalist friends--we are not talking about learning how to split the atom here. Eric McErlain has already created a Code of Conduct statement which the Thrashers could modify to their satisfaction.

The day is fast approaching when there will be no more print newspapers in Atlanta or other US cities. The future is digital. Newspaper circulating is crashing. Advertising is going digital. The readership of newspapers is overwhelming older people (who have money) and the future belongs to young people (who don't read newspapers).

The next generation of Thrasher fans will learn about their team via blogs, message boards and websites. They will not be reading a newspaper but free digital content on their Iphone or Blackberry devices. The NHL and the Thrashers need to go to where their fans are already headed--the digital media age which is dominated not by large media conglomerates but independent authors writing about things they are passionate about. Look at the areas of music and politics--both fields have embraced digital media such as bloggers precisely because opinion and passion are integral parts of their business. The NHL is also a business where opinion and passion matter a great deal.

The Thrashers should embrace the digital media age now. If they act now they could establish ground rules and shape the culture of local bloggers and instill good journalistic practices. The longer they wait the less influence they will have over developments.

To their credit the team has hosted two events for bloggers in the last two years. That's a good first step, but it is nothing more than a first step. If there is no second or third step then it is largely an empty gesture. If the team is nervous about this new digital media then take make gradual adjustments. What is the next step? Have one game a month with a designated Blogger Row access. If that works well then the following season expand it to more games or perhaps the entire season. I think the team might be pleasantly surprised at some of the positives that could result from such a policy step. Don't be another Edmonton, embrace your future.

Sleepy Sabres Slip Away with Single Point

2008-10-19T13:04:00.007-04:00

The Sabres played the night before and Buffalo came out slow. The Thrashers took advantage of the sleepy Sabres to pile up a big 1st period shot advantage 19-6. The Thrashers scored two goals on those shots but really should have had more--but Patrick Lalime was outstanding when Buffalo needed him to be so. This may have been the best game I've ever seen Lalime play.

Some key individual plays were Todd White's great pass to a breaking Kovalchuk who then cashed in the opportunity with a hard shot just under the cross bar. Jason Williams had 60% of the net to shot at with Lalime down but just couldn't elevate the puck high enough. Bryan Little who is showing off his offensive skills much more as a winger let loose a NHL level wrister that Lalime couldn't react to in time. White also had a brutal direct pass turnover to the Sabres in the slot area that Lehtonen saved. Lehtonen played like a top 15 starting goalie should play--no softies and several outstanding saves.

In some ways the game was about missed turning points for Atlanta. Yes, they did eventually get two points via the shootout, but if Jason Williams scores on that 1st period opportunity they go up 3-0 and probably win in regulation.

Likewise another big missed chance was at the start of the 3rd period. With the score 2-1 Atlanta the Thrashers begin the 3rd with a power play and fresh ice and fresh players. They really have to connect on that sort of opportunity. A goal in that situation likely gives Atlanta 2 points and Buffalo 0.

Instead the turning point of the 3rd occurred when Eric Boulton failed to clear the defensive zone and Jason Pominville stripws him on the puck went in on Lehtonen and shot the rebound come right to him on the left side for an easy put back goal. (Havelid was down on the ice after attempting to block the initial shot.)

In our "As the Blueline Turns"segment I thought that Enstrom had a nice rebound game after two less-than-great performances. Bogosian also had a couple of good looking shifts as well. It seemed to me that Bogosian didn't see the ice in OT or late in the 3rd as they went with a 5 man rotation. I understand that the coaches are probably trying to protect him and make sure he isn't out there to make a crucial costly error, but if Bogosian stays the whole season the team will need to use him late just to rest the other pairings here and there. I noticed a rare Havelid pinch to the net move at one point in the game.

The power play continues to look great in terms of puck control, puck movement and generating shots--the only problem is there are no PP goals recently. Part of this is that the Thrashers now take more point shots and Lalime simply was terrific in not giving up a lot of rebounds. I'm as frustrated as anyone about now getting any PP goals, but this PP unit certainly looks more dangerous than last season's pass-it-around-the-perimeter-and-hope-Kovy-scores system.

I seldom blog about opposition players, but watching the game on tape later I was very impressed with Thomas Vanek--he and Lalime carried a tired squad to a point they probably would not have earned otherwise.

The Thrashers are far from perfect, but they are entertaining and they are doing what they must to stay in the Eastern Playoff race while they become familiar with each other and Anderson's systems. I'm more encouraged than discouraged after 5 games.

Corsi Box Score (ES Thrashers Shots minus Opposition Shots Attempted)

Team
Lehtonen +18 Not so good for the Thrashers at Even Strength versus the Devils.

Defense
26:07 Schneider +8
12:27 Bogosian +13 (A new high in net team shot differential for Bogo)

24:04 Havelid +1
25:49 Enstrom +6

25:31 Hainsey +3
15:17 Exelby +6

Forwards
22:18 Kovalchuk +2
17:36 White +4
16:57 Little +4

15:46 Kozlov +8
14:11 Williams +9
16:00 Christensen +6

14:27 Perrin +13
15:55 Reasoner +6
18:28 Armstrong +6

6:39 Thorburn -2
13:41 Slater -1
7:34 Boulton -2

Real Eastern Standings (Points - Games Played)
This controls for differences in games played by teams
+5 NYR
+4 MON
+4 BUF
+3 NJD
+2 WAS
+1 CAR
+1 PIT
+1 BOS
---------- Playoffs
+0 OTT
+0 ATL
+0 FLA
-1 NYI
-1 TOR
-2 TBL
-3 PHI

You could take Kyle Wellwood

2008-10-17T14:37:00.004-04:00

OK it's probably not right to kick a guy when he's down, but this picture of Kyle Wellwood is worth 1,000 words about why the Canucks complained about his conditioning. This was taken right after an injury took him out of the Toronto lineup last season. There are guys in my Rec League team in better condition that this guy--and they pay for the privilege of skating!

Devils Shut Out Thrashers

2008-10-16T23:12:00.003-04:00

I'll keep this one fairly short and to the point. The Devils are favored to make the playoffs, perhaps win their division or even finish 1st in the Eastern Conference (so says James Mirtle). The Thrashers are favored to do none of those things.

For 60 minutes the Thrashers competed and matched the Devils on the ice. They lost because they hit two crossbars and Brodeur made a highway robbery save. They were also out shot by a sizable margin but Lehtonen kept them in the game. They had a chance to tie a quality team and came up just a little bit short.

I know there is some grumbling among fans about the losses to the Wild and Devils but frankly I'm more encouraged than discouraged. The NHL season is LONG and the Thrashers are playing a fairly entertaining brand of hockey and they are hanging in there against better teams. If they keep playing like this consistently they will get their share of points. That said I have never considered this Thrashers squad to be a likely playoff team. This season is about constructing the foundation for a contender and breaking in young players and figuring out who to keep for a contending club (not looking so good for Mr. Williams or Mr. Christensen through the first few games).

The bad news is that the October schedule is still rather rough. The Sabres are a VERY talented team and they come to town on Saturday. On paper they are better than the Thrashers and they should win the game. Can Atlanta overcome the odds and get some points? That's why they play the games I suppose.

Corsi Box Score (ES Thrashers Shots minus Opposition Shots Attempted)

Team
Lehtonen -16 Not so good for the Thrashers at Even Strength versus the Devils.

Defense
26:17 Schneider -2
16:17 Bogosian +1 (A new high in ice time for Bogo)

15:15 Havelid -11
18:43 Enstrom -14

Holy Cow! The Thrashers were out shot at ES by a big margin it happened almost entirely while the Swedish D pair were out there on the ice. When I first saw this I thought maybe Enstrom and Havelid had been matched up against the Elias line and that explained their struggles but the Hainsey-Exleby pairing had more TOI versus that line.

22:24 Hainsey +1
17:22 Exelby +0

Forwards
The top line was even, while the other three lines were outshot. Was this a D problem or a F problem? Given the brutal numbers of the Enstrom-Havelid pairing I'm inclined to think it was a defense problem.

23:10 Kovalchuk 0
17:48 White +1
20:37 Little +1

15:50 Kozlov -5
14:11 Williams -8
15:41 Christensen -5

15:31 Perrin -6
17:17 Reasoner -5
14:52 Armstrong -4

7:27 Thorburn -6
8:57 Slater -7
6:55 Boulton -5

Real Eastern Standings (Points - Games Played)
This controls for differences in games played by teams
+4 NYR
+3 MON
+3 BUF
+2 NJD
+2 WAS
+1 CAR
+0 PIT
+0 NYI
---------- Playoffs
+0 BOS
+0 OTT
+0 TOR
-1 ATL
-1 FLA
-2 TBL
-2 PHI

Minnesota Game Analysis

2008-10-16T01:18:00.003-04:00

Work kept me rather busy the last 24 hours, but here are my delayed thoughts on the loss to Minnesota. Last season when the Minnesota Wild came to Philips Arena the Thrashers were outshot by a wide margin (39-26) but the team managed to get a tie in regulation and win the extra point in the SO. Even though the Thrashers received zero standings points, the team probably had a stronger performance this season but lost because a handful of defensive gaffes in the 3rd period.

On Tuesday night the Thrashers had a pretty good game in terms of shots and scoring chances. I've read some fairly negative comments on this game, and I guess I just have to disagree. When you lose everyone emphasizes the mistakes and when you win they tend to ignore them. Early in this game the Thrashers were had an opportunity to grab a lead--they just didn't do so.

Year after year the Thrashers have struggled terribly against teams that trap, but they did a fairly good job of putting pressure on Minnesota. Atlanta continually gained the offensive zone and put shots on net, only to see Backstrom make saves and the Wild players clear rebounds and prevent 2nd chance shots. If Atlanta does that every night this season they will win a fair number of games.

Why did the Thrashers end up losing a game that was fairly evenly played?

1) They failed to convert some great chances in the 1st period. Kovalchuk had the puck on a 2 on 1 break and inexplicably attempted a pass that failed to reach the intended target. Colby Armstrong cleanly beat Backstrom but hit the crossbar.

2) The power play struggled to do much other than get shots from the point. Coach Anderson mentioned that the PP is a big problem right now in his post-game news conference and Mike Knobler reports on his blog that the team focused on that PP unit in practice today.

3) In the 3rd period there two bad pinches at the offensive blue line that left Kari Lehtonen and Mathieu Schneider in a bad position defending odd man breaks--Minnesota converted on both opportunities. Oystrick attempted to leap in the air and catch the puck and when he missed the Wild had a 2-on-0 break. Mathieu Schneider skated like crazy to get back into the play. (When you're the last defenseman back you can't take that kind of a chance.) Enstrom tried to hold a puck in and it hit his body and squirted out. I haven't watched the game tape but seeing it live it looked to me that one of the forwards was curling to come back but then failed to catch up to the Wild forwards. Schneider was again left defending a 2 on 1 play.

Honestly the Wild are a better team than Atlanta right now. The Thrashers played hard and they created some scoring chances they just failed to convert on offense. Losing is never good but the effort and intensity was pretty solid and the PK looked better. If you're going to lose, better to lose this way, unlike last season where they were badly outshot and struggled to get out of their own defensive zone many nights.

Your Corsi Boxscore (ES Shots Attempted For-ES Shots Attempted Against)
TOI/Player/Corsi Plus-Minus Score

Team
Lehtonen +6
The Thrashers actually won the Even Strength Shots Attempted battle.

Defense

26:10 Schneider +1
22:15 Havelid +5
21:57 Enstrom -4
21:28 Hainsey +2
16:04 Exelby +6
12:29 Oystrick +3

Enstrom struggled in the FLA game and he was the only defenseman out shot at ES in the MIN contest.

Forwards

19:34 Kovalchuk -4
18:53 White -6
19:35 Little -4

The Thrashers must get better offensive pressure out of their top line. Moving Little to Kovalchuk's line did not have a positive impact initially. Last season Kovlachuk and White were pretty much destroyed at ES by the opposition in terms of Shots For versus Shots Against. So far that trend has not reversed itself this season.

18:02 Kozlov 0
17:35 Williams +1
18:37 Christensen +1

12:44 Perrin +4
12:29 Reasoner +4
10:14 Armstrong +2

7:47 Thorburn +6
10:01 Slater +7
7:14 Boulton +6

An outstanding night by the 4th line who outplayed the opposition in limited ES ice time.

Political Junkies: Canada Votes!

2008-10-14T23:24:00.002-04:00

I just got home from the Thrasher game and I will post about the loss to Minnesota but right now I'm watching C-SPAN which is carrying the CBC election night results from Canada's Parliamentary election today. Nothing beats hearing a serious election telecast littered with a few "aboots"--after watching South Park for years it makes me chuckle every time.

R.I.P. Cherepanov

2008-10-13T16:11:00.002-04:00

Very sad news today as Alexei Cherepanov passed away at age 19 from an apparent heart attack during the 3rd period of a KHL game.

Lehtonen Earns Thrashers a Point

2008-10-11T22:52:00.003-04:00

The Thrashers lost of Florida in OT but picked up a valuable standing point nonetheless. Atlanta had some major PP opportunities right off from the start but could not score. The PK was better this game but the PP hurt them.

In game one of the season the offense really carried the team to victory as Lehtonen appeared to struggle in a few spots. In game 2 of the season Lehtonen made a series of crucial saves in the first half of the 3rd as the Atlanta was out shot 10-1. The OT goal was partly Kari's fault as he didn't handle it cleanly which led to an put back rebound goal.

Kovalchuk had another great pass to set up Kozlov's goal. Williams and Hainsey showed some veteran mojo by connecting on a clean face off win and point shot for a great looking tip in front. I thought the Thrashers got some fairly favorable calls and got away with interference on a couple of occasions.

What went wrong in this game? The Swedish D pairing had a poor game. I'm a big fan of Tobias Enstrom and this was arguably one of his worst games as a Thrasher. The stats confirm this as the Enstrom-Havelid pairing was badly out shot at even strength: -14 for Enstrom and -11 for Havelid. The coaching staff leaned heavily on Hainsey and Schneider this game and Bogosian again played few minutes. If Bogosian doesn't show some improvement I would not be surprised if he was returned to juniors before he plays 10 NHL games.

Atlanta was out shot 22-5 in the 3rd + OT. There's no good excuse as both teams were on played the night before and traveled. Back-to-back games were a disaster for the Thrashers all of last season and they must be stronger in that area this season.

Another bad habit from last year--the stagnant PP--returned this game. Some stretches where they just passed it back and forth--eventually Hainsey and Schneider fired it at the net but the forwards were just standing around down low--they need to move to create lanes and mis-matches.

DEFENSE
Time on Ice/Player/ES Shot Differential when on the ice
27:41 Hainsey +1
25:20 Schneider -5
20:26 Enstrom -14
20:30 Havelid -11
19:49 Exelby +7
13:28 Bogosian -3

I've been pretty hard on Exelby, but on this night the team had success when he was out there in terms of shots. There was a lot of special teams ice time so Bogosian played fewer minutes.

OFFENSE
Time on Ice/Player/ES Shot Differential when on the ice
22:29 Kovalchuk -3
18:38 White -4
18:15 Williams +2

The top line was not dominant at even strength. That has to get better over the long term. Kovalchuk has put up huge numbers in the past because he received lots of PP ice time. That is no longer the case which means he will have to be more productive at ES.

20:30 Kozlov -9
16:45 Christensen -9
14:25 Little -9

2nd line was badly out shot. I assume they were out there for many shifts with the struggling Swedish D duo.

15:37 Perrin +3
17:30 Reasoner +4
14:53 Armstrong +1

Another good game for the 3rd line.

11:10 Slater +1
4:46 Boulton -5
6:36 Thorburn -1

The 4th line was badly out shot in the home opener. In game 2 they hardly saw any ice time with all the special teams play. Slater got more minutes because he was on the PK unit.

Thrashers Attack the Net Vs Caps

2008-10-11T16:09:00.005-04:00

J.P. has a good post about last night's game versus Washington. If you click over you can see the shot chart of Atlanta's shots on goal last night. Notice how all 7 goals are below and between the two offensives faceoff dots. That's where the high percentage chances come from.

The Thrashers did a very good job of attacking the opposition net last night. Now if you want to see the location of the 40+ shots the Thrashers allowed you can click here to see the full thing on ESPN.com. In the defensive zone Atlanta allowed far too many close in shots. the ones that are high in the zone are less dangerous--on average. Two of the four goals were point blank locations the other two were from out high.

The other thing I completely forgot to mention is the play that was probably the most crucial moment of the entire contest (quite an oversight on my part). With the game tied 4-4 Lehtonen makes a save but the puck ends up in the blue paint in the goalie crease and Enstrom falls on the loose puck and probably saves a goal against. This creates a penalty shot opportunity and Lehtonen blanks Alex Ovechkin to preserve the tie. I find it interesting that many Caps fans think that Semin should have been given the PS not Ovechkin. Apparently their Ovy is much like our own Kovy--each of them are more dangerous in the flow of play than in the penalty shot type of situations.

EDIT: So how was the ice time spread among the defensemen?

Basically the top four defense all got the same total ice time. Bogosian

Total TOI/name/ES TOI
23:53 Hainsey 14:27
22:37 Havelid 15:27
22:18 Schneider 13:42
21:46 Enstrom 12:48
17:55 Exelby 13:10
12:58 Bogosian 12:08

Thrashers Topple Capitals

2008-10-11T00:05:00.004-04:00

What a fun start to the season! The NHL season is a long and winding road, but this night went right for the Thrashers. I had a ton of thoughts watching this game so I"ll just toss them out quick hit style.

Momentum is such a tricky thing, the Thrashers appeared to be in trouble after Bogosian took a penalty in his first NHL shift and the Caps looked like they had a goal only to have it wiped out by a high stick call. Then Hainsey responds by getting the first official goal and the Thrashers are off and running. The "new guys" all seemed to contribute, other than perhaps Jason Williams whom I hardly noticed.

Our power play looks MUCH better with the addition of Hainsey and Schnedier. Neither of these guys are afraid to fire the puck from the blueline. Opposing teams have to respect the blueline shot which will eventually open up more ice for Kovalchuk down low. I LOVED the fact that when the Thrashers won the first PP face off (from Ovechkin no less) the puck came to Schneider who just unleashed a one timer (which was blocked). Last year's PP unit would have made five passes and then turned the puck over. This year the PP just fires away--what an improvement.

Kozlov looked much better. He created the 2nd Little goal by skating across the blueline--and a couple of flashy puck handling moves attracted all three defenders to him and he then dished off a perfect pass to a wide open Little who fired and scored.

Another guy who was just sensational in my opinion was Eric Perrin. It seemed to me that he made something happen EVERY shift he was out there. Little received the 1st star for his 3 point night but it was a real ommission ignore Perrin's terrific play out there.

Bogosian got tagged for two penalties and a Brashear hunted the rookie down in the final two minutes of the game. I'm sure he was the happiest person in the building when the Capitals apparent goal was waived off.

Bogosian wasn't the only D to have a rough night. Enstrom fell asleep on Green's PP goal on the back door. Exelby lost his stick and the Capitals converted on the PP again.

There are many areas for improvement. The Thrashers are not going to have too many nights when the opposition goalie's Save Percentage is below .800 so the team will need to limit the chances against. Probably the most disturbing of the game was allowing 40+ shots on goal. That can't continue night after night if this team hopes to win.

As someone who plays defense in my local rec hockey leagues I probably watch the D more than most fans do. I can't believe how much more mobile our D corps is now and how much better their passing is. Schneider and Hainsey both jumped into the offensive zone play and made outstanding tape to tape outlet passes that allowed the forwards to race up the ice without making awkward adjustments to catch the puck.

Back when I suggested the Thrashers add Schneider to the roster I made the claim that he would be the best defenseman to wear a Thrashers uniform in team history. He had a couple of subtle plays that confirmed that (in my opinion). He made a heady move on a 1st period PP where it looked like the Capitals were about to recover and clear the puck. Instead he jumps in straight ahead beats the Capital to the puck and slides it fluidly back to Hainsey who then makes a solid play to keep the PP alive. At another point he slides down the left wall on the PP and calls for the puck from a Thrashers forward who is coming under pressure. Schneider receives the puck cleanly and immediately makes a quality pass to keep the flow going. Other than Enstrom last season, the Thrashers have been missing this sort of PP QB for their entire franchise history.

Some of the things that Coach Anderson discussed this summer with the bloggers showed up in the first contest. Anderson talked about the forwards putting pressure on down low and sending the defenseman to the net--which is exactly how Hainsey scored the first goal of the game.

Another thing Coach Anderson talked about was changing the attitude. I don't want to get overly excited about a single game, but I was pleased to see the Thrashers kept playing hard after Washington tied the game 4-4. We have seen many Thrashers teams that seemed to become stunned and slip into a defensive shell after giving up two goals on a single penalty call.

The players made multiple mistakes out there, but the energy level was great. The cameras caught Colby Armstrong on the bench after he scored his first of the season and he did some kind of shotgun thing with arms and was clearly enthused about his goal and the game.

The crowd was spirited and there were MANY more people there than I expected given the availability of tickets. Technically a sell out but there some rather patchy sections in the upper deck. Given how many tickets were available the morning of the game I'm thinking there were a significant number of giveaways for this one.

The Marketing/Ticket Sales Departments have to be doing hand stands. Finally the team puts on an entertaining performance in front of a large crowd. On opening night the hockey product was good--it was the sort of spirited contest that will make people want to come back again. Of course, the team has to keep playing like that into the future.

Two of the best plays of the entire game were passes. Kozlov's phenomenal pass for Little's goal and Kovalchuk's pass across the low slot for the final goal of the contest by White. As Gretzky learned sometimes an assist is prettier than a goal.

Kari Lehtonen had a stretch where he started throwing himself at the puck instead of just letting it hit him and I thought "oh no, he's about to fall apart" but he regained his composure and made some quality saves to get the win.

It was far from a perfect game, but it was a win (and there were few of those last season). The energy level was good, the PP was encouraging and the hockey product was fun to watch. The $1,000,000 question is can they keep doing this?

Corsi Box Score: Shots Attempted, Thrashers minus Opposition Shots
(while each player was on the ice at even strength excluding EN situations)

Team/Goal
-9 Lehtonen

Defense: all three D pairings were outshot to some degree, Schneider had the worst numbers at even strength. Not sure this one tells us that much.

-2 Havelid
-2 Enstrom

-7 Schneider
-3 Bogosian

-3 Hainsey
-3 Exelby

Forwards: The top three lines were pretty even in net shots attempted, but the 4th line was really in trouble in terms of getting out shot. Almost the entire Capitals ES shot advantage was piled up when the Greek God line was out there.

+2 Kovalchuk
+4 White
+2 Williams

+1 Kozlov
-1 Christensen
-1 Little

+1 Armstrong
-1 Reasoner
-1 Perrin

-8 Slater
-12 Thorburn
-10 Boulton

Home Opener Unlikely to Sell Out

2008-10-09T19:06:00.006-04:00

We are now 24 hours away from the NHL puck drop in Atlanta. So a quick check at Ticklemaster for the home opener. You can still buy a block of 10 seats in a row in Section 110 ROW C--yes folks that's right, you can purchase half of the row in the 3rd row behind Kari Lehtonen for the first game of the year.

You can buy a block of 20 seats in the upper deck.

Vegas Predicts the 2008-09 Season

2008-10-08T00:08:00.003-04:00

I posted the Las Vegas odds last year. In general Vegas did pretty well, they beat my attempt to predict all 30 teams. However, they missed badly on the Thrashers pegging them as a low 90 point team when they ended up finished as a low 70 point team--a 20 point miss. In general I'd say their over/under lines for the entire Southeast Division are a bit weak. This year I think Vegas is low on the Thrashers.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
99.5 MON
98.5 PIT
97.5 NJD

According to Vegas the clear favorites in the East are the Canadians, Penguins and Devils. Personally I think the Penguins are going to struggle with massive turnover up front and Gonchar and Whitney out for an extended period. As always the Devils season hinges on Brodeur starting 70 games--any injuries and they come in much lower.

94.5 OTT
94.5 PHI
93.5 WSH
93.5 NYR
91.5 BUF
91.5 BOS
91.5 TBL
89.5 CAR

Next we have a cluster of 8 teams sparring for 5 playoff berths. Within that group I'm bullish on Buffalo and bearish on Carolina (key injuries to Williams and Brind'amour and Cam Ward doesn't live up to his reputation). Washington and Tampa are two Eastern Teams projected for big jumps. The Rangers have some very talented young guys but I could see them struggle to gel and they have to replace all the points that left with Jagr, Straka and Shanahan.

82.5 FLA
79.5 ATL
76.5 TOR
74.5 NYI

The Thrashers in the bottom cluster, however the addition of Schneider pushes them above that number in my opinion. I think the Islanders are just a terrible team and agree that they will finish dead last in the NHL.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
109.5 DET
102.5 SJS
100.5 ANA
99.5 DAL

The favorites out west include 3 Pacific Division teams, mathematically it is very tough for three teams in the same division to all hit 100 points.

94.5 CGY
94.5 CHI
93.5 EDM
92.5 MIN
91.5 COL

In the middle we find 5 times battling it out for 4 playoff slots. I'm bearish on Calgary and Colorado and I would but Minnesota higher than that. Vegas sees Chicago and Edmonton as the two most improved teams in the Western Conference.

85.5 VAN
83.5 NSH
83.5 CBJ
82.5 PHX
79.5 STL
77.5 LAK

There are a lot of very exciting young players in this bottom group. One of these teams could make a Capitals style leap up the standings this season. The Coyotes are very intriguing but extremely young. Nashville was dealt a great blow when Radulov went to the KHL. The Blues took a big hit with Erik Johnson injury but rookie Berglund could make a splash for them. Columbus had a major roster make over--if they can gel quickly they might stay in the playoff race.

Thrashers Roster: Is it complete?

2008-10-07T11:29:00.002-04:00

The Thrashers cut down their roster to the NHL mandated 23 players today. Mike Hoffman will go on injured list so they will 22 active players. (Under the CBA a team cannot send a player who is injured at the NHL level down until that players is healthy so it is unclear where Hoffman will play until he comes off the injured list.)

At defense Oystrick got the last spot over Valabik. Personally, I'm not wild about this. I think Oystrick tends to stand by the net and let his defensive partner do most of the work in his own end. I also think Valabik brings more to the table. But by all accounts Oystrick corrected a conditioning problem that has held him back in past camps--if that is why he made the team then he deserves a tip of the hat for doing what was necessary this summer.

I will point out some other factors that occur to me. I've criticized the Thrashers management in the past for not giving young defensemen like Brett Clark and Kurtis Foster more of a serious look at the NHL level. Both of those guys went on to become solid NHL contributors on other teams. Oystrick is now old enough (nearly 26) that he has lost his prospect status. If they send him through waivers another team could claim him. The Thrashers might just be doing some due diligence here and finding out once and for all if Oystrick can be a useful NHL defenseman, before potentially losing him on waivers. If that's the motivation, I endorse it.

The other thought is that John Anderson has watched Nathan Oystrick play 162 AHL games and 39 AHL playoff contests. One would think after that many games Anderson has a pretty good idea of the positives and negative of Oystrick as a player. Perhaps this a guy Anderson really believes in?

Another possibility is the Thrashers have a trade brewing that will send a NHL roster defensemen and therefore they don't want to risk losing Oystrick as a depth player. As far as I know the Pavelec situation is still unresolved. If the Thrashers are offering around a package of Pavelec and another roster defensemen, then Oystrick might have been retained as an insurance policy. If another defensemen is traded then Valabik can come back up and Oystrick might be the true 7th D. If there is no trade brewing, there is always the potential that Atlanta could snag another player who is being sent through waivers in the next 24-48 hours as all NHL teams cut down as well.

At forward Sterling made the team over Colin Stuart and Joey Crabb. Here I'm not the least bit surprised. I think it is imperative for the Thrashers to learn whether Sterling can be a consistent top six scorer in the NHL. To find out, they need to put him in the lineup for 30 games and put him on one of the power play units and see what happens. He will probably have a couple of rough nights--most rookies do--but they need to stick by him and see what he has to offer at this level. The guy has nothing left to prove at the AHL level so they either need to utilize him or trade him for something that can help this team advance. Leaving him in the minors helps neither Sterling nor the Atlanta Thrashers.

The other argument for Sterling making the team is that scoring will probably be an issue this season. Even with Coach Anderson's uptempo systems they could struggle to replace the goals produced by Hossa, Holik, Dupuis and Recchi (that's 63 Thrashers goals scored) those four players were responsible for one quarter of the team's offense. Sterling, along with Christensen, Armstrong, Reasoner and Williams will be tasked with filling and surpassing that void.

I suspect that we will see Colin Stuart or Joey Crabb back in the NHL when injuries stike this season.

Thrashers Sesaon Ticket Renewals Crater

2008-10-06T13:25:00.005-04:00

I've been asking people in the local hockey leagues how many of them renewed their tickets. The number who have said "yes" is vanishingly small. I can count on one hand the number who still have full season tickets--and this among a group of people who eat, sleep and drink their hockey.

Just how bad were renewal rates? The Sports Business Journal is reporting that as of August 15th the season ticket renewal rate was just 40% for the Thrashers. I have a feeling that many of those who did renew are corporate buyers who don't care all that much about the on-ice product but use the tickets as entertainment for clients. My guess is that among individual fans the renewal rate is probably south of 40%. If my guess is correct, that's quite a statement about what the hockey consumer in this city thinks of the NHL product in this city.

Who can blame them really. The on-ice product has been exceedingly poor for 8 seasons. One playoff appearance and zero playoff wins. There are few markets where hockey would thrive under those conditions. What can a savvy consumer do other than vote with their pocket book?

The thing that concerns me the most is the persent ownership seems to slow to realize what everyone else knows. Back when Hartley pulled Lehtonen out of the playoff game I wrote that this could put his job on the line. The move backfired and the Thrashers lost miserably--but Hartley wasn't fired, he was retained only to be fired 6 games into the next season. Therefore an entire hockey season was flushed down the drain because a decision that should have been made over the summer wasn't made.

This last summer I thought Don Waddell should have been moved up to Team President and a new GM brought in. The Thrashers management has made a string of poor bets and this summer they were turned down by all of their Plan A free agent targets. Now it seems that the fans too have given them a thumbs down. And really, who can blame the fans? When there is no change at the top and no big free agent additions why pony up the cold hard cash for another year of getting losing?

The Thrashers added absolutely nobody new to a front office that has produced mostly unpleasant surprises between 1999-2008. Why should the fans buy the "we're building something special here" line from the same guy who has been promising that for 9-10 years? At this rate the ownership will probably realize they should have hired a new GM a season too late and make a change in the summer of 2009. If you're going to see "fresh start" it helps to have a fresh face selling that to you.

Remembering Dan Snyder

2008-10-06T01:56:00.002-04:00

(Composed and published on 10/08/03 immediately after Snyder's death)

I’ve had the opportunity to observe many prospects. Some of them have impressed me with a great shot, slick stickhandling or raw speed. Dan Snyder was never one of those sort of players. In fact, after watching him play in the minors for the Orlando SolarBears in February of 2000, I was unimpressed by him. Snyder did not have great speed or a great offensive touch, and his modest frame made it unlikely that he would be a good bodychecker.

They say that first impressions can be deceiving, and in Dan Snyder’s case this certainly proved true. I could see that Snyder lacked star quality offensive talent, but what I could not see was his determination to succeed despite the odds. It was this determination that had allowed him to be a better than point-per-game player in the OHL during this third and fourth seasons with the Owen Sound Platters. It was this same determination that drove him to keep fighting for his dream even though he was not one of the 241 players selected in the 1996 NHL Entry Draft.

After completing his junior hockey career with Owen Sound, Snyder signed a free agent contract with Atlanta and was assigned to IHL Orlando SolarBears from 1999-2001 and the AHL Chicago Wolves from 2001-2003, when Atlanta changed affiliations. In the minors, Snyder developed into a gritty two-way forward. His aggressive hitting and forechecking led him to rack up over 100 penalty minutes in each of his three full seasons in the minors. His pesky play got under the skin of opposing players.

Snyder also continued to display decent scoring ability in the minors, averaging a point every other game. Many of his goals came in clutch situations when the pressure was on and the outcome of the game hung in the balance. This was especially evident in the playoffs, where Snyder scored at a rate higher than he did during the regular season. His solid two-way game was a big factor to Orlando’s IHL championship in 2001 and Chicago’s AHL Championship in 2002.

The 2002 AHL playoff run was the moment when Snyder really showed that he could be a valuable NHL player. He was simply a pest—harassing opposing players in his own defensive end—then quickly converting a turnover into an offensive scoring opportunity for his own club. He was everywhere on the ice, playing in key defensive situations with great grit, energy and composure. When the Wolves won the 2002 AHL Championship on home ice in Chicago, it was fitting that it was Snyder’s line that produced the Calder Cup clinching overtime winner.

I came back to Atlanta after watching the Calder Cup Finals a Dan Snyder convert. The guy I had once deemed to small and slow had won me over with his spirited and heady play. I told everyone who would listen that he was ready for the NHL and could help the Thrashers checking line immediately. Unfortunately for Snyder his ability to show his stuff was hampered by a back injury during the 2002 Thrashers training camp. When his back healed Snyder played well but was returned to the minors as part of a team shake up following a winless October.

In January, a NHL roster spot opened up with an injury to Pascal Rheaume. Snyder quickly made a positive impression by fearlessly checking opposition players who were significantly bigger than him. In one particular game he drove Eric Lindros to distraction, drawing several power play opportunities for the Thrashers. He further endeared himself to the team by taking on Ottawa’s Sami Salo after he had waylaid a Thrasher. Snyder continued his gritty play until an ankle injury ended his season. He played what would be his final game on March 24th 2003.

Snyder’s inspired play was one of many positive trends that gave hope to Atlanta Thrasher fans going into the 2003-04 NHL season. After four years of seeing him play, he had become one of my favorite Thrashers to watch because it always seemed like he made something happen out on the ice. Snyder had won a job in the NHL as a checking center. Although he missed the Thrashers 2003 NHL training camp because of torn tendon in his ankle that required surgery, Snyder was expected to resume his job centering the fourth line upon his return.

The last time I saw Dan Snyder was at the Thrashers annual Meet The Team event on September 29th. Players sit at tables throughout Philips Arena signing autographs and taking pictures with fans. As things were winding down, I walked behind the table that Snyder shared with several teammates. Seeing that he was not busy, I said to him that it was time that he got healthy. Snyder slowly turned around looked at me and I explained that I was just eager to see him back out the ice again. He just smiled and nodded appreciatively as I headed out of the arena and home. As we all know, Snyder never made it home that night. I will always cherish that last moment, the quiet confidence of determined young man who made the most of the talent God gave him and achieved his dream of playing at the highest level of his profession. Dan, you left us far too soon, but we will not forget your time with us and the joy that it gave us.

Is Another NHL Team Tampering with Pavelec?

2008-10-05T01:18:00.006-04:00

Let me begin by saying this is pure speculation.

Recently, Don Waddell said that he was offered two good players for Pavelec in a trade and turned it down. Yesterday, Pavelec was told to report to Chicago and immediately his agent went to the press making charges and insisting his players would not return to the AHL. The speed with which this was leaked to the press hints that it may have been pre-planned by the agent.

Let's think about this for a moment. What motivations might explain this chain of events?
A) The player pushed this option. I'm sure Ondrej Pavelec wants to play in the NHL, however, from what I have learned about the player I'm skeptical that this was his idea.

B) The agent pushed this option. The agent has a significant financial motivation to see his client play in the NHL instead of the AHL. Typically a player like Pavelec will make something like $50,000 in the AHL but close to $1,000,000 in the NHL. If the agent gets a 5% cut he stands to receive a commission of nearly $50,000 if Pavelec spends the year in the NHL instead of the minors.

C) Another team provoked this option. This one concerns me the most. We know another team made a serious offer for Pavelec recently. That suggests that Team X really want him and perhaps they think they could use him immediately. What if Team X were to have a conversation with Pavelec's agent and casually mention "you know we made what we consider to be a very fair offer for Pavelec to the Thrashers. It's too bad they didn't accept our offer because he will be stuck behind Lehtonen and Hedberg for the next two years."

Now Team X doesn't have to come right and explicitly suggest that they have Pavelec refuse to report to the AHL or even demand a trade but implying that there is a market for a trade provides additional motivation for an agent not only to make the demand but GO PUBLIC QUICKLY with such a demand.

Another club might desire to incite Pavelec's agent to push Atlanta. After all if the player and agent come forward with public demands, that might force Atlanta's hand. Furthermore, if the player has a reputation as "troublemaker" or if it is perceived that Atlanta is having a "fire sale" then the club that was seeking him might be able to get him for a lesser price than under normal circumstances.

Now tampering is illegal and the NHL can punish any club caught doing something like this, but it is VERY difficult to prove. Let's say you could get phone records and prove that Team X talked to Agent Y--you still can't prove that they discussed Pavelec unless one of the participants were willing to testify to that fact or taped the phone conversation.

Again, I have no proof that anything of this nature happened, but the circumstantial evidence causes me to be concerned. Sadly the NHL has a history of stronger franchises trying to bully franchises that are perceived to be vulnerable. For example, years ago the NY Rangers signed Joe Sakic to a huge offer sheet because they thought the owners of the Avalanche might not be able to pay the salary. Also the Philadelphia Flyers signed Chris Gratton to a big offer sheet because they viewed that franchise as weak.

Is is possible that another NHL team sees Atlanta as vulnerable with their ownership mess and a GM that is probably on thin ice? Is it possible that they think a hold out could force the Thrashers hand? I think the answer to both of those question has to be, "yes, it is possible." Is it possible that another NHL club thinks it can get away with tampering, again I think the answer is likely "yes, it is possible" and that's a real problem for both the Thrashers and the integrity of the NHL.

Pre-Season Composite Corsi Boxscore

2008-10-04T22:36:00.002-04:00

I'm rather discouraged after yet another pre-season loss and I'll hold off commenting just now lest I write something rash and ill considered. Instead I come to praise Tobias Enstrom who has been far and away the best Thrasher defensemen so far in the pre-season. In the last three games the Thrashers have dressed a line up consisting of mostly NHL veterans. So I put together the Corsi (shots attempted, for and against) for all the defensemen for the last three games.

Get a load of this list. If a player has a plus number that means the Thrashers fired more shots than the opposition fired while he was on the ice at even strength. Enstrom not only leads the list, the players ranked #2 and #3 on the list each played just one game and they were paired with Tobias. If you look at just the D who played all three home games Enstrom is +22 and the next best defender is Havelid at -10 and then Hainsey at -12. In all three home pre-season games the Thrashers outshot the opposition when Enstrom was on the ice--the little guy makes good things happen for this team shift after shift--very impressive.

Net Team Shots Attempted at while the player was on the ice at ES.
+22 Enstrom (played all 3 preseason games)
+17 Valabik (1 game played, paired with Enstrom)
+00 Oystrick (1 game played, paired with Enstrom)
-09 Schneider (1 GP)
-10 Havelid (3 GP, 1 game paried with Enstrom)
-12 Hainsey (3 GP)
-12 Kulda (1 GP)
-13 Exelby (2 GP)
-14 Bogosian (3 GP)

As for the forwards, I was more than a little surprised to see which player has the best Corsi differential after three home games. None other than Todd White. When he's been on the ice the team is +7 and +6 in net shots attempted in the two games he dressed. Here is the full list for forwards

Net Team Shots Attempted at while the player was on the ice at ES.

+13 White
+8 Kovalchuk
+5 Perrin
+4 Slater
+3 Hoffman
+2 Crabb
+2 Sterling
+0 Stuart
-2 Thorburn
-2 Williams
-13 Reasoner
-14 Little
-16 Armstrong
-16 Christensen
-17 Kozlov

Slater has been working extremely hard this pre-season. He still can't finish, but he's generating shot attempts with his speed. Kovalchuk has been generating offensive pressure but hasn't scored yet.

At the other end of spectrum Kozlov and Christen were absolutely destroyed last night against St. Louis with Corsi numbers of -15 and -16 respectively. Armstrong and Little posted negative Corsi numbers in all three home games. The numbers for Reasoner are also really ugly so far, if you include the last road game plus his two home games he is -27...ouch.

And goalies? Well let's just say nobody can stop the puck with any consistency right now. The only game without a glaring goaltender error is also the only win in the pre-season against Nashville on the road. Pavelec was solid in that one. None of the netminders has looked ready so far and the puck drops on Friday night. Yikes.

Pavelec Refuses to Report

2008-10-04T16:45:00.003-04:00

According to Craig Custance, Ondrej Pavelec will not report to the AHL. I like Pavelec a lot and think he is ready for the NHL but he is out of line with this move. Another season in the AHL isn't going to hurt him, he could still afford to work on some things in the minors.

It is hard to see ending well. Pavelec's agent has gone way on a limb making all these statements about how the organization was not honest with his player. Once a position like that is taken it is hard to walk your way back--assuming the two parties want to get back together. The inflammatory language suggests to me that Pavelec's agent has no interest in reaching some sort of compromise and that he wants to see Pavelec somewhere else.

The timing is poor in several respects. Pavelec did not play well last night by his own account (maybe he knew this was coming?). There is also not much of a market for a starting position in the NHL as the Chicago Blackhawks have discovered while trying to peddle Khabibulin. Now there is interest in Pavelec from other teams, but nobody other than perhaps LA Kings is going to hand him a NHL job.

How will this turn out? The last time we had drama like this was when Buzek refused to dress. The team suspended him and then traded him away. Frankly, Buzek was much less valuable than Pavelec, but it is hard to see how this will turn out much differently.

I called for the organization to keep Pavelec as one of their two goalies, but it is not going to happen this way. They are not going to back down now that they have been threatened.